5 ms·

I would love to make a bet with you, and I'd be willing to, but I really don't think I'll get to collect.

• Retric 4y ago
  Would you actually be willing to bet that world population drops by 800+ million people within 10 years of 1.5C?
  • javajosh 4y ago
    800M is 10% of the current population - the OP's point is that if he's right, there's a non-trivial chance that he, and you, may be dead, making the prediction moot. In terms of EV, it never pays to bet on the apocalypse since you can't collect. Markets can't price in their own demise. (it would actually be quite interesting if they could). (Also, given how often people make predictions online, how often do you see people saying "mea culpa, I was totally wrong about that one!" It's close to zero. Guessing wrong, even in earnest, about important things, doesn't matter anymore, and doesn't pose even a minor threat to one's reputation. This lack of social/cultural corrective has made our zeitgeist is so remarkably polluted with utterly ignorant, bad faith BS like bets about the apocalypse that it doesn't even register any more. How fascinatingly horrible!)
  • tomatotomato37 4y ago
    Depends, can we filter out any deaths caused by the current major landwar between the breadbasket of europe & the "Order #227" gas station?
    • Retric 4y ago
      No need to filter anything. If world population drops by that much I’ll concede the bet, if it doesn’t then they lose.