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You’re fighting a straw man, nobody is arguing you need to do what Japan did verbatim. The only argument I’m making is when you allow supply and demand to meet

You’re fighting a straw man, nobody is arguing you need to do what Japan did verbatim. The only argument I’m making is when you allow supply and demand to meet prices stop going up. All the rest is narrative. The answer to where is “up.” Also the prices in Tokyo aren’t insane at all they’re super affordable by any standard.

lazide 4y ago
That is not at all reflective of reality. https://japanpropertycentral.com/tag/tokyo-apartment-prices/ https://japanpropertycentral.com/tag/tokyo-apartment-prices/ Tokyo prices are running 908k yen/square meter, or $685 square foot. While manhattan real estate is $1.5k/sq Ft and San Francisco $1k/sq ft - median incomes are dramatically lower in Japan, as is purchasing power, with the median Tokyo income being only $66k/yr. There is a reason the stereotypical apartment in Tokyo is tiny - on average 65 square meters (700 square feet), of which only 41 square meters (441 square feet) is livable space. That’s often for more than one person. Outside of Tokyo, property is nearly free. Inside Tokyo it’s expensive, crowded, and tiny. Looking at the national stats, it roughly averages out. But that isn’t this utopia you seem to think is occurring.
- arcticbull 4y ago
  So at $685 (1/3 of Manhattan and 1/2-1/3 of SF) there are also units that are somewhat smaller. Just like in Europe. Sounds pretty darn affordable. Meanwhile in SF if you can’t afford the units that are larger by regulation you can live 2h outside of town. The whole point is folks can live in the metro, and live well. And despite that prices haven’t changed in nominal terms in 30 years - meaning slightly cheaper each year. Not everyone can afford the home of their dreams right now but it shouldn’t be between that and homelessness or a 2h commute.
8note 4y ago
You've skipped over the criticism. Put a billion houses on Jupiter, and their value will be zero, while new york remains expensive
- arcticbull 4y ago
  But if you put a billion houses on Manhattan their value will be zero. There's almost an unlimited amount you can build up. The problem is we're currently putting houses on Jupiter instead of Manhattan through arbitrary restrictions on density. There's single-family zoning in San Francisco! 94% of San Jose. 15% of NYC (25% if you include single and two-family zoning). It's wild. [1] And that's if you can even get the city to approve your development regardless of zoning, parking minimums, etc. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/06/18/upshot/cities-across-america-question-single-family-zoning.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/06/18/upshot/cities...
  - lazide 4y ago
    If you put a billion houses on Manhattan, MOST of those billion houses would be worth nothing, and the ones where people wanted to be (which is probably not Manhattan if a billion houses were blocking out the light - but I digress) would still be expensive.

lazide 4y ago

That is not at all reflective of reality. https://japanpropertycentral.com/tag/tokyo-apartment-prices/ https://japanpropertycentral.com/tag/tokyo-apartment-prices/ Tokyo prices are running 908k yen/square meter, or $685 square foot. While manhattan real estate is $1.5k/sq Ft and San Francisco $1k/sq ft - median incomes are dramatically lower in Japan, as is purchasing power, with the median Tokyo income being only $66k/yr. There is a reason the stereotypical apartment in Tokyo is tiny - on average 65 square meters (700 square feet), of which only 41 square meters (441 square feet) is livable space. That’s often for more than one person. Outside of Tokyo, property is nearly free. Inside Tokyo it’s expensive, crowded, and tiny. Looking at the national stats, it roughly averages out. But that isn’t this utopia you seem to think is occurring.

arcticbull 4y ago
So at $685 (1/3 of Manhattan and 1/2-1/3 of SF) there are also units that are somewhat smaller. Just like in Europe. Sounds pretty darn affordable. Meanwhile in SF if you can’t afford the units that are larger by regulation you can live 2h outside of town. The whole point is folks can live in the metro, and live well. And despite that prices haven’t changed in nominal terms in 30 years - meaning slightly cheaper each year. Not everyone can afford the home of their dreams right now but it shouldn’t be between that and homelessness or a 2h commute.

8note 4y ago

You've skipped over the criticism. Put a billion houses on Jupiter, and their value will be zero, while new york remains expensive

arcticbull 4y ago
But if you put a billion houses on Manhattan their value will be zero. There's almost an unlimited amount you can build up. The problem is we're currently putting houses on Jupiter instead of Manhattan through arbitrary restrictions on density. There's single-family zoning in San Francisco! 94% of San Jose. 15% of NYC (25% if you include single and two-family zoning). It's wild. [1] And that's if you can even get the city to approve your development regardless of zoning, parking minimums, etc. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/06/18/upshot/cities-across-america-question-single-family-zoning.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/06/18/upshot/cities...
- lazide 4y ago
  If you put a billion houses on Manhattan, MOST of those billion houses would be worth nothing, and the ones where people wanted to be (which is probably not Manhattan if a billion houses were blocking out the light - but I digress) would still be expensive.