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Although off topic from the original post, would you entertain this question? What's Taiwan's position on integration with China? What does Taiwan want for itse

by scrubs 4y ago

Although off topic from the original post, would you entertain this question? What's Taiwan's position on integration with China? What does Taiwan want for itself? I'd like to hear more about that minus American and Chinese input.

jasonjei 4y ago
This is an extremely interesting question because I’ve heard various viewpoints. The vast majority want to keep the “technical debt” (legacy code being “Republic of China”) of this uneasy bridge to China—that is trade and movement of people between the strait, and maintaining the status quo of the “Republic of China” government (controlling Taiwan) and PRC (controlling China or “mainland”). Many Taiwanese don’t want war, but they already are functionally independent. The PRC has never governed in Taiwan. The ROC, which governed China from 1912 to 1949, governs Taiwan and its child islands. Many young Taiwanese just want to be Taiwanese and left alone, but the vast majority want to keep the status quo as long as it’s tenable (it’s not, Xi Jinping has indicated a timeline). The big question is how this might be possible without poking the bear that resembles Pooh… It’s obvious to most Taiwanese that China won’t keep its promises, since it made clear violations of promises made to the HK people and UK. Recent elections have shown KMT party (pro-PRC relations, the grandfather of the Republic of China government, and in someways the father party of the Communists that forked from KMT) gaining ground because people are afraid of war. Nobody in Taiwan wants war, but as the saying goes, in order to have peace, prepare for war.
- scrubs 4y ago
  Well, if China invades it'll have even less incentive to maintain anything remotely like pre-invasion. You gave HK as the example. That was only paperwork to get in the front door.
- maxloh 4y ago
  > Recent elections have shown KMT party (pro-PRC relations, the grandfather of the Republic of China government, and in someways the father party of the Communists that forked from KMT) gaining ground because people are afraid of war. Nobody in Taiwan wants war, but as the saying goes, in order to have peace, prepare for war. Maybe data suggest otherwise? The number of Taiwaneses that support Taiwan to "Maintain status quo, move towards unification" and "Unification as soon as possible" has been dropped from 12.8% and 5.0% in 2018 to 7.5% and 1.4% in 2019. Meanwhile the number of Taiwaneses that support "Maintain status quo, move towards independence" has been rised from 12.8% in 2018 to 25.8% in 2020. Note: I am a one of the HongKongers fled to Taiwan after the Anti-Extradition protest in 2019. [0]: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963
  - scrubs 4y ago
    Thanks for that info - appreciated.
- throw48294858 4y ago
  Interestingly the protest in Hong Kong was triggered by a Hongkonger who murdered his girlfriend while they were vacationing in Taiwan. Taiwan was in negotiations with Hong Kong to extradite him and the protestors were afraid of the implications. In the end, a much stronger National Security Law was passed after the riots and the murderer still walks free.
  - firen777 4y ago
    A HKer murdered a HKer. said murderer moved back to HK. HK government said "nope can't deal with that sorry" Taiwan: fine, we can negotiate the extradition if you insist on us taking the case. HK gov: actually we are gonna make an all encompassing law that deals with extradition. It also makes extraditing criminals/political refugees/booksellers/whoever the ccp request quick and easy but please ignore it.
  - maxloh 4y ago
    > Taiwan was in negotiations with Hong Kong to extradite him and the protestors were afraid of the implications. No. The HK government broke off the negotiations on purpose. They want to use that as an excuse to pass some laws that gain Beijing more control over HK. It was the proposed laws that terrified HongKongers, not the negotiations.
yodsanklai 4y ago
My wife is Taiwanese. She's seriously planning on fighting for her country should there be an invasion. She doesn't want anything to do with China and my understanding is that most younger taiwanese share that opinion. But some consider that a reunion could bring them better economical prospects and would be willing to sacrifice their freedom. I don't think this will end well.
- gggmaster 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - scrubs 4y ago
    Explain your comment. Drive-bys are not well tolerated on HN.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
- wolverine876 4y ago
  One surprising aspect of that is Taiwan's very limited compulsery military service - I think it was a month, recently lengthened to 6 months? What I read says that such service is very unpopular. I don't understand a lot about it, but wouldn't people expecting an invasion from a much larger country want universal compulsary service and as much training as they can get? Even for those less motivated about winning, it would help them survive a war.
  - re-thc 4y ago
    I can't see much that can be done by conscripts if an invasion really happens. Ukraine has vast amounts of land that Taiwan doesn't. Throwing bodies at it won't work. If something happens it's likely over air/sea/tactical weapons than lots of foot soldiers.
T-A 4y ago
https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963
addy34 4y ago
Having lived in Taiwan both before and after China's crackdown in Hong Kong, I can say that post crackdown, I haven't encountered a single Taiwanese that wants any integration with China. They just want to be Taiwanese, which after nearly a century of being an independently governed country, is very different from the life on mainland China. And yet most of the young people I encounter are somewhat resigned to the inevitability of invasion. Prior to the HK affair, some older Taiwanese I met would suggest that closer integration could bring economic benefits, but I don't hear that these days. With a number of HK journalists that I respect now in prison or having fled, I can only agree. The HK spirit and culture that once thrived in the city has all but disappeared, as the Chinese government applies their embrace and extinguish approach to cultural assimilation. When you can be imprisoned for life for uttering the wrong words, it tends to silence any dissent.
- re-thc 4y ago
  Economical benefits has always been a hit and miss and lots of the older generation have learnt their lesson (even before the HK affair). Lots of producers of different kinds have had their technologies copied, skills learnt and then abandoned for and only to hire them on a consultancy basis for when things break. In hindsight it has likely hurt Taiwan's economy more than it has helped.
raincole 4y ago
Since Taiwan became a democracy, Taiwan's stance has always been against "one country, two systems". It was like that wayyyyy before the Hong Kong protest. It's not my personal opinion. These are the polls from varies institutions in Taiwan (in Chinese): https://www.modernchinastudies.org/cn/issues/past-issues/106-mcs-2009-issue-4/1117-the-one-country-two-system-model-and-its-applicability-to-taiwan-a-study-of-opinion-polls-in-taiwan.html https://www.modernchinastudies.org/cn/issues/past-issues/106... The first column is date (ROC year 80 = year 1991, etc), the second is pro one-country-two-systems, the third is against it. You can see the percentage of pro went from ~10% to ~30% then back to ~10%. It has never been the majority.
h11h 4y ago
Opinion polls: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 A strong majority want to maintain the status quo or gradually move toward independence. Very few want unification. It's important to understand that China promises to invade if Taiwan declares independence (the Anti-Secession Law requires that response), which means many people would ideally prefer independence but in practice support the status quo because de facto independence (the status quo) is better than being invaded. Both sides of Taiwanese politics formally support the status quo, although the DPP has stronger pro-independence leanings. Taiwanese identity (as opposed identifying as Chinese) has also trended up in recent decades and now most people only consider themselves to be Taiwanese and not Chinese. https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7800&id=6961 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7800&id=6961
blackbear_ 4y ago
Feel free to check this report from The Economist: https://www.economist.com/special-report/2023-03-11 https://www.economist.com/special-report/2023-03-11 Table of contents: - Taiwan: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat - The past: How Taiwan is shaped by its history and identity - The economy: It is time to divert Taiwan’s trade and investment from China - Semiconductors: Taiwan’s dominance of the chip industry makes it more important - The home front: The battle with China is psychological as much as physical - Defence: Taiwan needs a new defence strategy to deal with China - Politics: Taiwanese politics faces a crucial election in early 2024 - What Taiwan needs: Taiwan desperately needs support from the world
- tarsinge 4y ago
  Mention of the chip industry makes it hard to take the source as unbiased from US side. Other comments were more insightful on the perspective of Taiwanese and on the cultural and historical aspects.
jnsaff2 4y ago
Not being run by a totalitarian-mafia?

by scrubs 4y ago

jasonjei 4y ago

This is an extremely interesting question because I’ve heard various viewpoints. The vast majority want to keep the “technical debt” (legacy code being “Republic of China”) of this uneasy bridge to China—that is trade and movement of people between the strait, and maintaining the status quo of the “Republic of China” government (controlling Taiwan) and PRC (controlling China or “mainland”). Many Taiwanese don’t want war, but they already are functionally independent. The PRC has never governed in Taiwan. The ROC, which governed China from 1912 to 1949, governs Taiwan and its child islands. Many young Taiwanese just want to be Taiwanese and left alone, but the vast majority want to keep the status quo as long as it’s tenable (it’s not, Xi Jinping has indicated a timeline). The big question is how this might be possible without poking the bear that resembles Pooh… It’s obvious to most Taiwanese that China won’t keep its promises, since it made clear violations of promises made to the HK people and UK. Recent elections have shown KMT party (pro-PRC relations, the grandfather of the Republic of China government, and in someways the father party of the Communists that forked from KMT) gaining ground because people are afraid of war. Nobody in Taiwan wants war, but as the saying goes, in order to have peace, prepare for war.

scrubs 4y ago
Well, if China invades it'll have even less incentive to maintain anything remotely like pre-invasion. You gave HK as the example. That was only paperwork to get in the front door.
maxloh 4y ago
> Recent elections have shown KMT party (pro-PRC relations, the grandfather of the Republic of China government, and in someways the father party of the Communists that forked from KMT) gaining ground because people are afraid of war. Nobody in Taiwan wants war, but as the saying goes, in order to have peace, prepare for war. Maybe data suggest otherwise? The number of Taiwaneses that support Taiwan to "Maintain status quo, move towards unification" and "Unification as soon as possible" has been dropped from 12.8% and 5.0% in 2018 to 7.5% and 1.4% in 2019. Meanwhile the number of Taiwaneses that support "Maintain status quo, move towards independence" has been rised from 12.8% in 2018 to 25.8% in 2020. Note: I am a one of the HongKongers fled to Taiwan after the Anti-Extradition protest in 2019. [0]: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963
- scrubs 4y ago
  Thanks for that info - appreciated.
throw48294858 4y ago
Interestingly the protest in Hong Kong was triggered by a Hongkonger who murdered his girlfriend while they were vacationing in Taiwan. Taiwan was in negotiations with Hong Kong to extradite him and the protestors were afraid of the implications. In the end, a much stronger National Security Law was passed after the riots and the murderer still walks free.
- firen777 4y ago
  A HKer murdered a HKer. said murderer moved back to HK. HK government said "nope can't deal with that sorry" Taiwan: fine, we can negotiate the extradition if you insist on us taking the case. HK gov: actually we are gonna make an all encompassing law that deals with extradition. It also makes extraditing criminals/political refugees/booksellers/whoever the ccp request quick and easy but please ignore it.
- maxloh 4y ago
  > Taiwan was in negotiations with Hong Kong to extradite him and the protestors were afraid of the implications. No. The HK government broke off the negotiations on purpose. They want to use that as an excuse to pass some laws that gain Beijing more control over HK. It was the proposed laws that terrified HongKongers, not the negotiations.

yodsanklai 4y ago

My wife is Taiwanese. She's seriously planning on fighting for her country should there be an invasion. She doesn't want anything to do with China and my understanding is that most younger taiwanese share that opinion. But some consider that a reunion could bring them better economical prospects and would be willing to sacrifice their freedom. I don't think this will end well.

gggmaster 4y ago
[flagged]
- scrubs 4y ago
  Explain your comment. Drive-bys are not well tolerated on HN.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
wolverine876 4y ago
One surprising aspect of that is Taiwan's very limited compulsery military service - I think it was a month, recently lengthened to 6 months? What I read says that such service is very unpopular. I don't understand a lot about it, but wouldn't people expecting an invasion from a much larger country want universal compulsary service and as much training as they can get? Even for those less motivated about winning, it would help them survive a war.
- re-thc 4y ago
  I can't see much that can be done by conscripts if an invasion really happens. Ukraine has vast amounts of land that Taiwan doesn't. Throwing bodies at it won't work. If something happens it's likely over air/sea/tactical weapons than lots of foot soldiers.

T-A 4y ago

https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963

addy34 4y ago

Having lived in Taiwan both before and after China's crackdown in Hong Kong, I can say that post crackdown, I haven't encountered a single Taiwanese that wants any integration with China. They just want to be Taiwanese, which after nearly a century of being an independently governed country, is very different from the life on mainland China. And yet most of the young people I encounter are somewhat resigned to the inevitability of invasion. Prior to the HK affair, some older Taiwanese I met would suggest that closer integration could bring economic benefits, but I don't hear that these days. With a number of HK journalists that I respect now in prison or having fled, I can only agree. The HK spirit and culture that once thrived in the city has all but disappeared, as the Chinese government applies their embrace and extinguish approach to cultural assimilation. When you can be imprisoned for life for uttering the wrong words, it tends to silence any dissent.

re-thc 4y ago
Economical benefits has always been a hit and miss and lots of the older generation have learnt their lesson (even before the HK affair). Lots of producers of different kinds have had their technologies copied, skills learnt and then abandoned for and only to hire them on a consultancy basis for when things break. In hindsight it has likely hurt Taiwan's economy more than it has helped.

raincole 4y ago

Since Taiwan became a democracy, Taiwan's stance has always been against "one country, two systems". It was like that wayyyyy before the Hong Kong protest. It's not my personal opinion. These are the polls from varies institutions in Taiwan (in Chinese): https://www.modernchinastudies.org/cn/issues/past-issues/106-mcs-2009-issue-4/1117-the-one-country-two-system-model-and-its-applicability-to-taiwan-a-study-of-opinion-polls-in-taiwan.html https://www.modernchinastudies.org/cn/issues/past-issues/106... The first column is date (ROC year 80 = year 1991, etc), the second is pro one-country-two-systems, the third is against it. You can see the percentage of pro went from ~10% to ~30% then back to ~10%. It has never been the majority.

h11h 4y ago

Opinion polls: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 A strong majority want to maintain the status quo or gradually move toward independence. Very few want unification. It's important to understand that China promises to invade if Taiwan declares independence (the Anti-Secession Law requires that response), which means many people would ideally prefer independence but in practice support the status quo because de facto independence (the status quo) is better than being invaded. Both sides of Taiwanese politics formally support the status quo, although the DPP has stronger pro-independence leanings. Taiwanese identity (as opposed identifying as Chinese) has also trended up in recent decades and now most people only consider themselves to be Taiwanese and not Chinese. https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7800&id=6961 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7800&id=6961

blackbear_ 4y ago

Feel free to check this report from The Economist: https://www.economist.com/special-report/2023-03-11 https://www.economist.com/special-report/2023-03-11 Table of contents: - Taiwan: Taiwan is a vital island that is under serious threat - The past: How Taiwan is shaped by its history and identity - The economy: It is time to divert Taiwan’s trade and investment from China - Semiconductors: Taiwan’s dominance of the chip industry makes it more important - The home front: The battle with China is psychological as much as physical - Defence: Taiwan needs a new defence strategy to deal with China - Politics: Taiwanese politics faces a crucial election in early 2024 - What Taiwan needs: Taiwan desperately needs support from the world

tarsinge 4y ago
Mention of the chip industry makes it hard to take the source as unbiased from US side. Other comments were more insightful on the perspective of Taiwanese and on the cultural and historical aspects.

jnsaff2 4y ago

Not being run by a totalitarian-mafia?