I'm not really a skeptic about the potential of the technology, it's just that this sounds exactly the same as what a lot of people told me when I was a 14-15 y

I'm not really a skeptic about the potential of the technology, it's just that this sounds exactly the same as what a lot of people told me when I was a 14-15 year old computer enthusiast over 20 years ago. And what has happened since then? The amount any one person could achieve with code shot way up, but far from killing all the jobs, we just found more and more things that could be done cost effectively with computers. So it's hard for me to avoid seeing that as the base case here, having already seen it play out once. My confidence level in the prediction isn't super high or anything, but this is the starting point for me. But I am also sad, because I do think the "making useful things with computers" work will (and has) become less focused on the parts of it that are fun for me. I like to step through debuggers and reason from first principles about what's going on in cpus and memory chips and on the network think about how to structure blocks of code to be comprehensible; all the old school "programming" stuff, that's what's fun for me. I get some joy in working with groups of people to identify and build useful things, but honestly not as much as I get in the direct work with code I understand and appreciate. And I do think more and more of the work will shift away from that raw programming work and toward supervising AI tools in creating useful things conceptualized by humans.