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The price of things that AI can do well is quickly going to fall to the cost of the electricity to run the model. The price of things that AI can do, but can't

The price of things that AI can do well is quickly going to fall to the cost of the electricity to run the model. The price of things that AI can do, but can't do well, will fall some, but not nearly as much. The price of things that AI can't do at all will go up, because there will be fewer people working in knowledge jobs, and therefore they will be able to command higher wages.

bequanna 4y ago
> The price of things that AI can't do at all will go up, because there will be fewer people working in knowledge jobs, and therefore they will be able to command higher wages. This doesn’t follow. If AI displaces workers the majority of them will find other work. AI will increase the labor supply, not decrease.
- nilsbunger 4y ago
  Look up the Baumol effect. When productivity rises in one sector, there is an increase in wages in other sectors. The flip side of the coin is over time we spend more of our income on the things that don’t have increasing productivity. Think of housing, education, health care, etc
- nine_k 4y ago
  I suspect that the number of workers which AI can't displace due to their unique mental abilities has natural limitations, mostly not enforced by cultures and markets. With global population growth declining, and negative population growth in most industrial countries, the supply of humans in general, and humans of exceptional abilities in particular, will only decrease.
albertzeyer 4y ago
> things that AI can't do at all Like what?
- politician 4y ago
  Manage delivery of ERP.
- layer8 4y ago
  Be liable for their actions. Be an attractive, physical sex partner. Perform neurosurgery without human assistance. Raise children, from birth, autonomously. (Once they can do that, I may be really worried.)
  - ctoth 4y ago
    #remindme But seriously, this list of things they would never ever be able to do would look a heck of a lot different if it were still 2016 :) Also thinking about this just a bit more, do you know many humans that can accomplish this list?
    - layer8 4y ago
      Yes, that’s an issue, but this subthread was about who will get paid really well in the future.
  - albertzeyer 4y ago
    Your first point is not really up to the AI, but a legal question, right? And about the other points, just wait a bit. They don't sound actually so unrealistic to me, maybe in the next 20 years. About the second point, I think there is already an industry specializing on this.
- ekianjo 4y ago
  take initiative
- the_af 4y ago
  > Like what? Are you under the impression that AI can do most things well? Because so far it cannot.
  - 4y ago

bequanna 4y ago

> The price of things that AI can't do at all will go up, because there will be fewer people working in knowledge jobs, and therefore they will be able to command higher wages. This doesn’t follow. If AI displaces workers the majority of them will find other work. AI will increase the labor supply, not decrease.

nilsbunger 4y ago
Look up the Baumol effect. When productivity rises in one sector, there is an increase in wages in other sectors. The flip side of the coin is over time we spend more of our income on the things that don’t have increasing productivity. Think of housing, education, health care, etc
nine_k 4y ago
I suspect that the number of workers which AI can't displace due to their unique mental abilities has natural limitations, mostly not enforced by cultures and markets. With global population growth declining, and negative population growth in most industrial countries, the supply of humans in general, and humans of exceptional abilities in particular, will only decrease.

albertzeyer 4y ago

> things that AI can't do at all Like what?

politician 4y ago
Manage delivery of ERP.
layer8 4y ago
Be liable for their actions. Be an attractive, physical sex partner. Perform neurosurgery without human assistance. Raise children, from birth, autonomously. (Once they can do that, I may be really worried.)
- ctoth 4y ago
  #remindme But seriously, this list of things they would never ever be able to do would look a heck of a lot different if it were still 2016 :) Also thinking about this just a bit more, do you know many humans that can accomplish this list?
  - layer8 4y ago
    Yes, that’s an issue, but this subthread was about who will get paid really well in the future.
- albertzeyer 4y ago
  Your first point is not really up to the AI, but a legal question, right? And about the other points, just wait a bit. They don't sound actually so unrealistic to me, maybe in the next 20 years. About the second point, I think there is already an industry specializing on this.
ekianjo 4y ago
take initiative
the_af 4y ago
> Like what? Are you under the impression that AI can do most things well? Because so far it cannot.
- 4y ago