3 ms·

Doesn't matter what the market expects what matters are the facts. Again the market expected one year ago that CS would be worth 30B. they were wrong. the downf

by cowl 4y ago

Doesn't matter what the market expects what matters are the facts. Again the market expected one year ago that CS would be worth 30B. they were wrong. the downfall in unpredictable.

loeg 4y ago
> Doesn't matter what the market expects what matters are the facts. Market expectations are based on facts. > the downfall in unpredictable. Yeah! Unpredictable is a synonym for surprising. I think you're agreeing with me? It would be surprising if CS stock went from $8B to $1B overnight.
- cowl 4y ago
  No it would not be surpriseg at all at this point. it would be surprising if it was stable for years at 8B and went 1B overnight but for a stock that has lost 3x more than it's current market cap in the last year it's not surprising at all to lose another 1x. Market expectetions are not based on facts, that is the lie that keeps catching the people with their pants down. Market Expectations are a Bet of Risk/Award analysis based on limited data (thus at best limited at worst even distorted or ommited facts). There are always people willing to bet on the x3 or even x10 as long as the risk/award analysis is attractive. It is by no means a statement that you will win x3 or x10. Cryptocurrencies are the perfect illustration of this effect but even in the regulated market see for example the illustration of the Gamestop: https://www.theverge.com/22253363/wall-street-bets-verge-stories-gamestock-reddit-discord https://www.theverge.com/22253363/wall-street-bets-verge-sto... it's perfect to show how the market expectations are bullshit and not facts.
  - loeg 4y ago
    If it was unsurprising, you should have bought some very cheap out of the money puts.
    - SAI_Peregrinus 4y ago
      Unsurprising doesn't mean predictable. It's often easy to say that something will go down (or up) in value at some point, but very difficult to say at which point.
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
      - loeg 4y ago
        > Unsurprising doesn't mean predictable. I mean, I just disagree with you there. Outcomes you did not predict are surprising.
        SAI_Peregrinus 4y ago
        Imagine you're repeatedly flipping fair coin. Is it surprising when it comes up heads? How about a tails? Can you predict the next flip?
        loeg 4y ago
        Yes, it's surprising each time.
- djbusby 4y ago
  We get to find out Monday! Exciting!

by cowl 4y ago

Doesn't matter what the market expects what matters are the facts. Again the market expected one year ago that CS would be worth 30B. they were wrong. the downfall in unpredictable.

loeg 4y ago

> Doesn't matter what the market expects what matters are the facts. Market expectations are based on facts. > the downfall in unpredictable. Yeah! Unpredictable is a synonym for surprising. I think you're agreeing with me? It would be surprising if CS stock went from $8B to $1B overnight.

cowl 4y ago
No it would not be surpriseg at all at this point. it would be surprising if it was stable for years at 8B and went 1B overnight but for a stock that has lost 3x more than it's current market cap in the last year it's not surprising at all to lose another 1x. Market expectetions are not based on facts, that is the lie that keeps catching the people with their pants down. Market Expectations are a Bet of Risk/Award analysis based on limited data (thus at best limited at worst even distorted or ommited facts). There are always people willing to bet on the x3 or even x10 as long as the risk/award analysis is attractive. It is by no means a statement that you will win x3 or x10. Cryptocurrencies are the perfect illustration of this effect but even in the regulated market see for example the illustration of the Gamestop: https://www.theverge.com/22253363/wall-street-bets-verge-stories-gamestock-reddit-discord https://www.theverge.com/22253363/wall-street-bets-verge-sto... it's perfect to show how the market expectations are bullshit and not facts.
- loeg 4y ago
  If it was unsurprising, you should have bought some very cheap out of the money puts.
  - SAI_Peregrinus 4y ago
    Unsurprising doesn't mean predictable. It's often easy to say that something will go down (or up) in value at some point, but very difficult to say at which point.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - loeg 4y ago
      > Unsurprising doesn't mean predictable. I mean, I just disagree with you there. Outcomes you did not predict are surprising.
      - SAI_Peregrinus 4y ago
        Imagine you're repeatedly flipping fair coin. Is it surprising when it comes up heads? How about a tails? Can you predict the next flip?
        loeg 4y ago
        Yes, it's surprising each time.
djbusby 4y ago
We get to find out Monday! Exciting!