Well, it depends how you ask the question right? The statements: 1. The market considers that in the future the company will be worth (on avg) $8B. 2. There i

Well, it depends how you ask the question right? The statements: 1. The market considers that in the future the company will be worth (on avg) $8B. 2. There is a 20% chance the company is (effectively) dead in a month. - these statements are not necessarily in contradiction (although going one level deeper, I personally think catastrophic risk is often not fully reflected in asset prices)