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There is an art to knowing when your cynicism is justified, and when you should take a pause... Yeah a lot of people claimed their SPA would change the world, b

There is an art to knowing when your cynicism is justified, and when you should take a pause... Yeah a lot of people claimed their SPA would change the world, but this one is pretty interesting, so no need to go all "get off my lawn" on it With just a few minutes of experimentation, it becomes really trivial to see how ChatGPT can accelerate some types of jobs sufficiently to justify reduction of staff. It will likely create other jobs too, which is also mentioned in the article.

Jensson 4y ago
But Sam Altman saying those things doesn't mean anything. Telling the world that their AI is too powerful and needs to be closed to be safe is a marketing trick, this "I'm scared about how good our product is!" is also just a marketing trick. He cried wolf about GPT-2, cried wolf about GPT-3, and now about GPT-4. Maybe it is great and the wolf is here now, but people stop listen to this sort of person quick.
- fnordpiglet 4y ago
  I would note that it seems he said “AI” consistently but the journalist wrote “Chatgpt” in the headline. I would have agreed with you two years ago. But knowing what we’ve done with AI before this (grand master level chess, cars that can self drive, etc) building an ensemble from those and what these LLM are able to do, I think if you don’t see 10 years from now being on its head from today, I think you might have lost the capacity to dream. I don’t think LLM alone are sufficient. But pointing to what they produced in beta and saying “time is static the universe is done AI is a crock” seems myopic.
polygamous_bat 4y ago
Perhaps large language models will change the world, but it will be the open variant that people can run on their own machines, not some corporate API.
- fnordpiglet 4y ago
  That’s why I built a GPU data center in the bomb shelter under my house. I’m convinced it’ll start a fad.
- dogma1138 4y ago
  In what world would that ever be possible? Some of these models require compute power equal to that of some nation states, regardless it the technology will be open or not and it won’t be - the resources needed would make it impossible for all but the largest of the corporate entities to run.
  - kthejoker2 4y ago
    Lol "nation states"? You can definitely prune these models and fine tune them to fit on your smartphone today. The compute required is more like high 6/low 7 figure levels of compute, a rounding error for every Fortune 1000 company. In fact, if we're so convinced this particular LLM is so great, we should just be chopping it up into fit for purpose agents.
owenmarshall 4y ago
One of the consistent refrains that I see on these threads is that AI is going to replace someone else’s job. It’s almost never going to replace our jobs, because when we test it against ours we can quickly see gaps and flaws, or worse, its overconfident yet incorrect answers. But when we apply a surface level understanding of someone else’s job to a surface level investigation of AI’s ability to do that job, we keep coming back to the same answer: it’s here! It’s ready! Meanwhile, if you go ask those other people, they’ll show you a ton of very good reasons why AI isn’t ready to replace their jobs, things I never knew they had to do or understand. And I bet a few of them will tell me that they heard it can write code.
- edanm 4y ago
  I don't know what you're talking about, it's a fairly common refrain here that AI will replace development jobs. There are some upvoted articles on musings about whether it's worth getting into the field right now.
  - owenmarshall 4y ago
    A perfect illustration of my point. In the Carmack thread[0] someone with a surface level of what it means to work in software because they’re just entering the industry worries that ChatGPT will eliminate their entire career. Then a thread of experts goes into the many things they do today that ChatGPT can’t, and why those fears are overblown. [0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35216894 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35216894
- fnordpiglet 4y ago
  I’m 100% certain AI will replace my job. My daughter dreams of training dogs to do karate for a living, she I think will be employed for life.

Jensson 4y ago

But Sam Altman saying those things doesn't mean anything. Telling the world that their AI is too powerful and needs to be closed to be safe is a marketing trick, this "I'm scared about how good our product is!" is also just a marketing trick. He cried wolf about GPT-2, cried wolf about GPT-3, and now about GPT-4. Maybe it is great and the wolf is here now, but people stop listen to this sort of person quick.

fnordpiglet 4y ago
I would note that it seems he said “AI” consistently but the journalist wrote “Chatgpt” in the headline. I would have agreed with you two years ago. But knowing what we’ve done with AI before this (grand master level chess, cars that can self drive, etc) building an ensemble from those and what these LLM are able to do, I think if you don’t see 10 years from now being on its head from today, I think you might have lost the capacity to dream. I don’t think LLM alone are sufficient. But pointing to what they produced in beta and saying “time is static the universe is done AI is a crock” seems myopic.

polygamous_bat 4y ago

Perhaps large language models will change the world, but it will be the open variant that people can run on their own machines, not some corporate API.

fnordpiglet 4y ago
That’s why I built a GPU data center in the bomb shelter under my house. I’m convinced it’ll start a fad.
dogma1138 4y ago
In what world would that ever be possible? Some of these models require compute power equal to that of some nation states, regardless it the technology will be open or not and it won’t be - the resources needed would make it impossible for all but the largest of the corporate entities to run.
- kthejoker2 4y ago
  Lol "nation states"? You can definitely prune these models and fine tune them to fit on your smartphone today. The compute required is more like high 6/low 7 figure levels of compute, a rounding error for every Fortune 1000 company. In fact, if we're so convinced this particular LLM is so great, we should just be chopping it up into fit for purpose agents.

owenmarshall 4y ago

One of the consistent refrains that I see on these threads is that AI is going to replace someone else’s job. It’s almost never going to replace our jobs, because when we test it against ours we can quickly see gaps and flaws, or worse, its overconfident yet incorrect answers. But when we apply a surface level understanding of someone else’s job to a surface level investigation of AI’s ability to do that job, we keep coming back to the same answer: it’s here! It’s ready! Meanwhile, if you go ask those other people, they’ll show you a ton of very good reasons why AI isn’t ready to replace their jobs, things I never knew they had to do or understand. And I bet a few of them will tell me that they heard it can write code.

edanm 4y ago
I don't know what you're talking about, it's a fairly common refrain here that AI will replace development jobs. There are some upvoted articles on musings about whether it's worth getting into the field right now.
- owenmarshall 4y ago
  A perfect illustration of my point. In the Carmack thread[0] someone with a surface level of what it means to work in software because they’re just entering the industry worries that ChatGPT will eliminate their entire career. Then a thread of experts goes into the many things they do today that ChatGPT can’t, and why those fears are overblown. [0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35216894 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35216894
fnordpiglet 4y ago
I’m 100% certain AI will replace my job. My daughter dreams of training dogs to do karate for a living, she I think will be employed for life.