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You can't extrapolate from an arbitrary selection of technologies and assume that LLMs will have the same trajectory. They could be like the iPhone, or they cou
by jstx1 4y ago
You can't extrapolate from an arbitrary selection of technologies and assume that LLMs will have the same trajectory. They could be like the iPhone, or they could be like self-driving cars which have been a year away from replacing all drivers for 10 years now.
- pharmakom 4y agoSelf driving cars a few years ago seem particular close in hype level and apprehension to LLM today but progress on those has not matched expectations at all. What if GPT4 is the last major advance in LLMs for a really long time?
- thequadehunter 4y agoMight just be me, but I think the big difference here is the level of adoption. Everybody with an internet connection can use an LLM. It hits closer to home that way, whereas driving is very dangerous and most people haven't used a self driving car before.
- onion2k 4y agoYou can't extrapolate from an arbitrary selection of technologies... I'm not. I'm saying it's true for every technology. Everything gets better with time. As for self driving cars, compare a DARPA challenge car from 2013 to a Waymo car today. It's massively better.