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I doubt AI will replace any job in my lifetime (got 40-50 years left). Progress will grind to a halt just like self driving cars did because the real world is

I doubt AI will replace any job in my lifetime (got 40-50 years left). Progress will grind to a halt just like self driving cars did because the real world is just too chaotic and 'random' to be captured by a formula/equation/algorithm. My prediction is: AGI is theoretically possible, but would require impractical amounts of computing power - kinda like how intergalactic travel will never happen.

pzo 4y ago
We don’t AGI for LLM to be useful. And regrading comparison with self driving car they are still improving just the bar for them is much higher. If autopilot works 99.9% if time then 1 out of 1000 drivers will die - so technology has to be even better. for LLM is enough if it’s 90% good to be broadly useful.
- AshamedCaptain 4y ago
  Not to "replace programmers", though. For the same reason you can't replace drivers even though they also make mistakes.
  - pzo 4y ago
    It’s not about replacing all programmers. If one programmer with AI assistant can do work the same as 2 programmers then one position is redundant. Even with self driving truck if one truck driver is leading another truck behind controlled by AI, and just for safety you have somewhere C&C center with one person monitoring 4 such ai trucks and in case unexpected event remotely take over control then one truck driver position is redundant.
    - ldhough 4y ago
      While I do think there is some threshold where increased productivity makes positions redundant, I don't think 2x would do it in most orgs. My current team easily has enough work for us all to be 2x more productive.
- homarp 4y ago
  unless you want the LLM to write the firmware of the self-driving car.
mdorazio 4y ago
fwiw, self-driving cars did not grind to a halt, development just did not move as quickly as the pundits and self-promotion claimed. I just rode in a fully driverless car on public streets in downtown Austin this week.

pzo 4y ago

We don’t AGI for LLM to be useful. And regrading comparison with self driving car they are still improving just the bar for them is much higher. If autopilot works 99.9% if time then 1 out of 1000 drivers will die - so technology has to be even better. for LLM is enough if it’s 90% good to be broadly useful.

AshamedCaptain 4y ago
Not to "replace programmers", though. For the same reason you can't replace drivers even though they also make mistakes.
- pzo 4y ago
  It’s not about replacing all programmers. If one programmer with AI assistant can do work the same as 2 programmers then one position is redundant. Even with self driving truck if one truck driver is leading another truck behind controlled by AI, and just for safety you have somewhere C&C center with one person monitoring 4 such ai trucks and in case unexpected event remotely take over control then one truck driver position is redundant.
  - ldhough 4y ago
    While I do think there is some threshold where increased productivity makes positions redundant, I don't think 2x would do it in most orgs. My current team easily has enough work for us all to be 2x more productive.
homarp 4y ago
unless you want the LLM to write the firmware of the self-driving car.

mdorazio 4y ago

fwiw, self-driving cars did not grind to a halt, development just did not move as quickly as the pundits and self-promotion claimed. I just rode in a fully driverless car on public streets in downtown Austin this week.