4 ms·
Needs 10 or 1000 similar trials to see if it is reliably correct, or if it gets lucky sometimes by latching onto one detail.
by hgsgm 4y ago
Needs 10 or 1000 similar trials to see if it is reliably correct, or if it gets lucky sometimes by latching onto one detail.
- psychphysic 4y agoCurious to know if it could tell you where the thimble is etc.
- adhesive_wombat 4y ago> Q: And where is the thimble? > GPT-4 Apologies for the confusion earlier. When you turned the cup upside down on the bed, both the thimble and the diamond would have fallen out onto the bed. So, the thimble is also on your bed in the bedroom along with the diamond. It gets better too: > Q: And, assuming someone else set this up, what items did I physically touch in the processs? > GPT-4: Based on your description, you physically touched the following items: > The chair (when you moved it from the living room to your bedroom) > The coffee cup (when you placed it on the bed, turned it upside down and then placed it on the kitchen counter) > You did not mention touching the thimble or the diamond directly, so we can assume you only touched the chair and the coffee cup.
- mattmanser 4y agoThe other reply got the opposite response to you by leaving out one word, "And". This is the problem people are having when they get correct responses. They cry out 'It reasons!'. They don't realize that just one word away was an incorrect response. There is no world model, it was just a roll of the dice all along. You're anthromorphizing a lookup table!
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- unixfg 4y agoI had to ask again, to get the right answer. Q: Where is the thimble? GPT-4: The thimble was inside the coffee cup when you moved it. Since you didn't mention taking the thimble out of the cup, the thimble should still be in the coffee cup, which is now on your kitchen counter. Q: Are you sure? GPT-4: Apologies for the confusion earlier. Based on the information you provided, when you turned the coffee cup upside down on your bed, it is likely that both the diamond and the thimble fell out. Therefore, the thimble should also be on your bed along with the diamond, while the coffee cup is on your kitchen counter.
- hackerlight 4y agoThe number of trials is one issue, but another is selection bias. If GPT-4 got a worse result, would he have tweeted it? And if he did tweet it, would people like it/upvote it to the front of HN? Less likely given hype goes more viral than doubt. So they need to publicize the methodology of the experiment ahead of time, then run the experiment after the disclosure. Ideally, the intention to run the experiment gets to the front page of HN prior to it being run, otherwise we've still got some selection bias at play.
- O_H_E 4y agoI'm saddened to inform you that no scientific research being done these days holds up to these standards.
- skybrian 4y agoIt's starting to be done in some cases. Look up registered reports.
- hackerlight 4y agoI'd add that even without registered reports (which are necessary), meta-analyses attempt to cut back on some of the selection bias by scouring the entire literature instead of cherry picking the results that get the most likes on social media.
- Spivak 4y agoIt’s a statistical model, the bar is lower than that. You just have to get it right more than wrong. The ChatGPT web app doesn’t expose this behavior but real apps can and do (I use this approach) use the ability to generate multiple completions, use that to generate confidence scores, and update the response appropriately. Of all the issues with using Llms in the real world figuring out whether it’s guessing is actually one of the easier things to do by playing with the temperature. When the model is very confidently incorrect is when you have to worry.