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As someone who is both a developer and currently occasionally uses GPT in the course of development, I skimmed this article looking for the one point I think th

As someone who is both a developer and currently occasionally uses GPT in the course of development, I skimmed this article looking for the one point I think there is to make on this subject. I think the opposite of what people are worrying about will happen here. AI will create a feedback loop for developers, where there just aren’t enough humans to keep up with the work - exacerbating the existing problem of a shortage. For me, LLMs can essentially replace large portions of my workflow: stack overflow, googling for examples, finding some obscure syntax, getting started on a problem when I’m coming from a place of little understanding. Assuming I ask the right questions in the right order and get the output running, it can drastically reduce my time to a working solution. This is the same thing previous tools have done, but with a faster and tighter feedback loop. That will just amplify the primary pattern of software: with every solution we create new problems to solve. And every new abstraction has some hidden cost. Mark my words: our near future problem as engineers is not that we can’t get jobs, it’s that we can’t fill them all. We will most likely find ourselves desperately chasing automation that never quite gets as automated as we need it to be. Of course this is both good and bad. But it means that like this author, we need to encourage everyone possible to “learn to code” in some sense.

tobr 4y ago
On the other hand, if it replaces large parts of your workflow, that means your work is now very different. It will perhaps be more about making strategic decisions, less about implementing the details. So depending on what type of work you are good at and enjoy, it can be a good or a bad thing.
- ChatGTP 4y ago
  Don’t forget that most companies want us to actually do more, there’s pretty much infinite creativity available. Faster and cheaper code delivery will probably lead to more code , more moonshot ideas to be involved in, more scaling issues, security issues and on and on. There will now be more competition of course, more LLMs to build and maintain. More features to keep up with etc. Also AI safety jobs will become more of a thing, could just be getting started. …or it’s the end of all work!!!!!!
- mypastself 4y ago
  I have a similar take. I suspect at some stage “software development” will mean feeding business requirements (with some degree of precision) into the algorithm and letting it handle logic, resource provisioning etc. The last traditional programming jobs to go will be legacy software for critical infrastructure, defense, and financial institutions. Communication skills and business domain knowledge will become far more important than what we consider “tech skills” today. I doubt the world’s appetite for software will decline even when one person manages to develop in a day what used to take a team of people months. We’ll have a lot more work to do, and a lot more people will join the field. However, on average, it might become a much less lucrative and prestigious profession.
  - yunohn 4y ago
    > I suspect at some stage “software development” will mean feeding business requirements (with some degree of precision) into the algorithm and letting it handle That’s just a higher level programming language… And we all know that it doesn’t solve things.
    - mypastself 4y ago
      It actually does solve a lot things, in the sense that there’s a lower barrier for entry. A lot of lower-level programming skills are being abstracted away and obsoleted. My prediction may be wrong, but it’s based on the extrapolation of the trends you’re referring to.
      - yunohn 4y ago
        High level languages like Python abstract away boring specifics like memory management and implantation data structures. Natural language programming via GPT instead abstracts away the actual functioning. I’ve seen colleagues use snippets from chatGPT that are horrendously inefficient despite being “simple” prompts. They look fine at first glance, but work only 50% of the time.
        mypastself 4y ago
Madmallard 4y ago
Where's the shortage of engineering? Tech companies nearly universally (outside like Defense) are laying off huge swaths of developers.
- carlmr 4y ago
  It's always been a shortage of firms willing to pay the appropriate amount. When you pay enough the talent pool is endless.
- drvdevd 4y ago
  This is true but this doesn’t imply those companies couldn’t still use those engineers in some capacity but rather they have decided to cut the cost of employing them. Universally, software is so flawed and yet so fundamental to modern life, there is certainly a possibility for everyone to contribute but not necessarily funding to pay them for their work.
tpoacher 4y ago
The problem isn't how you, an engineer, perceives the tool could be useful. The problem is how your CEO, not an engineer, perceives the tool could be useful.
- elforce002 4y ago
  This. I asked a question regarding this on a forum and I got downvoted to oblivion just because I said a manager/CTO/CEO could see this as an opportunity to lay off people, cut salaries, etc...
  - mrbombastic 4y ago
    I am skeptical that this will happen but if it does it seems to me it will still be a short term situation. I don’t believe the world’s need for software, especially high quality software, is anywhere near met. There are many problems waiting to be solved with software that just aren’t due to cost or time of implementation. The outcome will be more software and more complex software, you may as an individual engineer be expected to manage and produce more software then before but the demand for software engineers will not be reduced because all of the sudden there is much more software in the world.
  - Teever 4y ago
    Maybe those laid off people can start a business that replaces the CEO/CTO with an AI.
- credit_guy 4y ago
  Reality has a way to make itself perceived at some point.
  - mydogcanpurr 4y ago
    M̶a̶r̶k̶e̶t̶s̶ MBAs and their ilk can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
- furyofantares 4y ago
0xGod 4y ago
This assessment is correct. Many more engineers will be needed. Far more than exist right now. There is a lot of work to do. There could be innovation in products and services...more products, more services, more innovation, for another 1,000 years.
devwastaken 4y ago
There is no worker shortage for engineers in software roles. Nor a shortage in other engineering professions. That's corpo propaganda used to reduce salaries, the largest expense of tech. More job competition = less pay. If anyone wants the best software devs there's plenty of them uploading projects on GitHub. The resume is right there in plain sight. Speaking to numerous hiring managers personally, the story is the same. They know, they also have a few hundred applications already. You'll know there's a shortage when the org actually puts money into education, interns, and makes offers to juniors. Further - if there were a shortage, that would be an existential crisis to any engineering org. They would be tumbling over themselves trying to get people through school. They have actual billions lying around. This is not the case. These corps contribute almost nothing, because they don't need to.
- drvdevd 4y ago
  I certainly can’t argue with this point. Except I will add that when I speak of a shortage of engineers, I am perhaps more speaking of a gut feeling on the overall quality of software the entire industry is putting out. There may or may not be a surplus of engineers out there to fill jobs, but there are a lot of hats an engineer has to wear if they actually want to drive systemic positive forward change, much of which is of course not really “engineering” at all. Maybe what I’m trying to say is: for the vast majority of new-hires despite qualifications, they will consistently produce more technical debt and that debt will need to be paid from time to time. I believe the increase in popularity of LLM-type AIs will amplify this effect and make that debt more visible and urgent.

tobr 4y ago

On the other hand, if it replaces large parts of your workflow, that means your work is now very different. It will perhaps be more about making strategic decisions, less about implementing the details. So depending on what type of work you are good at and enjoy, it can be a good or a bad thing.

ChatGTP 4y ago
Don’t forget that most companies want us to actually do more, there’s pretty much infinite creativity available. Faster and cheaper code delivery will probably lead to more code , more moonshot ideas to be involved in, more scaling issues, security issues and on and on. There will now be more competition of course, more LLMs to build and maintain. More features to keep up with etc. Also AI safety jobs will become more of a thing, could just be getting started. …or it’s the end of all work!!!!!!
mypastself 4y ago
I have a similar take. I suspect at some stage “software development” will mean feeding business requirements (with some degree of precision) into the algorithm and letting it handle logic, resource provisioning etc. The last traditional programming jobs to go will be legacy software for critical infrastructure, defense, and financial institutions. Communication skills and business domain knowledge will become far more important than what we consider “tech skills” today. I doubt the world’s appetite for software will decline even when one person manages to develop in a day what used to take a team of people months. We’ll have a lot more work to do, and a lot more people will join the field. However, on average, it might become a much less lucrative and prestigious profession.
- yunohn 4y ago
  > I suspect at some stage “software development” will mean feeding business requirements (with some degree of precision) into the algorithm and letting it handle That’s just a higher level programming language… And we all know that it doesn’t solve things.
  - mypastself 4y ago
    It actually does solve a lot things, in the sense that there’s a lower barrier for entry. A lot of lower-level programming skills are being abstracted away and obsoleted. My prediction may be wrong, but it’s based on the extrapolation of the trends you’re referring to.
    - yunohn 4y ago
      High level languages like Python abstract away boring specifics like memory management and implantation data structures. Natural language programming via GPT instead abstracts away the actual functioning. I’ve seen colleagues use snippets from chatGPT that are horrendously inefficient despite being “simple” prompts. They look fine at first glance, but work only 50% of the time.
      - mypastself 4y ago

Madmallard 4y ago

Where's the shortage of engineering? Tech companies nearly universally (outside like Defense) are laying off huge swaths of developers.

carlmr 4y ago
It's always been a shortage of firms willing to pay the appropriate amount. When you pay enough the talent pool is endless.
drvdevd 4y ago
This is true but this doesn’t imply those companies couldn’t still use those engineers in some capacity but rather they have decided to cut the cost of employing them. Universally, software is so flawed and yet so fundamental to modern life, there is certainly a possibility for everyone to contribute but not necessarily funding to pay them for their work.

tpoacher 4y ago

The problem isn't how you, an engineer, perceives the tool could be useful. The problem is how your CEO, not an engineer, perceives the tool could be useful.

elforce002 4y ago
This. I asked a question regarding this on a forum and I got downvoted to oblivion just because I said a manager/CTO/CEO could see this as an opportunity to lay off people, cut salaries, etc...
- mrbombastic 4y ago
  I am skeptical that this will happen but if it does it seems to me it will still be a short term situation. I don’t believe the world’s need for software, especially high quality software, is anywhere near met. There are many problems waiting to be solved with software that just aren’t due to cost or time of implementation. The outcome will be more software and more complex software, you may as an individual engineer be expected to manage and produce more software then before but the demand for software engineers will not be reduced because all of the sudden there is much more software in the world.
- Teever 4y ago
  Maybe those laid off people can start a business that replaces the CEO/CTO with an AI.
credit_guy 4y ago
Reality has a way to make itself perceived at some point.
- mydogcanpurr 4y ago
  M̶a̶r̶k̶e̶t̶s̶ MBAs and their ilk can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
furyofantares 4y ago

0xGod 4y ago

This assessment is correct. Many more engineers will be needed. Far more than exist right now. There is a lot of work to do. There could be innovation in products and services...more products, more services, more innovation, for another 1,000 years.

devwastaken 4y ago

There is no worker shortage for engineers in software roles. Nor a shortage in other engineering professions. That's corpo propaganda used to reduce salaries, the largest expense of tech. More job competition = less pay. If anyone wants the best software devs there's plenty of them uploading projects on GitHub. The resume is right there in plain sight. Speaking to numerous hiring managers personally, the story is the same. They know, they also have a few hundred applications already. You'll know there's a shortage when the org actually puts money into education, interns, and makes offers to juniors. Further - if there were a shortage, that would be an existential crisis to any engineering org. They would be tumbling over themselves trying to get people through school. They have actual billions lying around. This is not the case. These corps contribute almost nothing, because they don't need to.

drvdevd 4y ago
I certainly can’t argue with this point. Except I will add that when I speak of a shortage of engineers, I am perhaps more speaking of a gut feeling on the overall quality of software the entire industry is putting out. There may or may not be a surplus of engineers out there to fill jobs, but there are a lot of hats an engineer has to wear if they actually want to drive systemic positive forward change, much of which is of course not really “engineering” at all. Maybe what I’m trying to say is: for the vast majority of new-hires despite qualifications, they will consistently produce more technical debt and that debt will need to be paid from time to time. I believe the increase in popularity of LLM-type AIs will amplify this effect and make that debt more visible and urgent.