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A single crop harvester can replace 30 farm workers. If programming is going the same route as your farming example then we're in for a shock. The complexity an

A single crop harvester can replace 30 farm workers. If programming is going the same route as your farming example then we're in for a shock. The complexity and scale of software increases every year so I wonder if AI will be able to keep up or if there will always be a need for specialized roles.

realusername 4y ago
Coding is a small percentage of a programming job, I don't write more than 100 lines / day, GPT tools are also very late to the party of code generation, it's been 40 years of development in this area.
_8j50 4y ago
Yeah but not everyone affords a crop harvester and even then you have less farm workers not no farm workers. I think there will be less demand for programmers and more demand at lesser pay for the top quintile of talented coders. There will also be ML managing/engineering/monitoring type jobs that will require you to know how to code. Various other disciplines will also have knowing python and shell scripting a requirement. The only thing that will get decimated is the need for a 10:1 ratio (making that up for the record) between coders that stitch software and suck at debugging and coders that sre debugging ninjas that can identify issues GPT* hallucinates. The next stage of decimation is a long way off when GPT is able to be integrated into the production monitoring tooling, debug on it's own and answer questions like "why is your code slow under these circumstances? And why does it randomly crash?" Right now operations/sre/users ask that of the programmer. I don't believe GPT is anywhere near being able to reliably answer those questions because if it were, why emit such code to begin with? You would be able to prompt it to generate perfect code if it could do that, the code I have seen is impressive but full of flaws even a collegr freshman wouldn't make. To me the question is the same as dalle-e replacing artists. Even whe the drawing is not weird or just messed up it still does not "wow" you, i mean technically it qualifies and for a machine it is impressive but it just feels mediocre to the most part. I think in reality what you will see is GPT assisted IDEs giving new meaning to "code completion".

realusername 4y ago

Coding is a small percentage of a programming job, I don't write more than 100 lines / day, GPT tools are also very late to the party of code generation, it's been 40 years of development in this area.

_8j50 4y ago

Yeah but not everyone affords a crop harvester and even then you have less farm workers not no farm workers. I think there will be less demand for programmers and more demand at lesser pay for the top quintile of talented coders. There will also be ML managing/engineering/monitoring type jobs that will require you to know how to code. Various other disciplines will also have knowing python and shell scripting a requirement. The only thing that will get decimated is the need for a 10:1 ratio (making that up for the record) between coders that stitch software and suck at debugging and coders that sre debugging ninjas that can identify issues GPT* hallucinates. The next stage of decimation is a long way off when GPT is able to be integrated into the production monitoring tooling, debug on it's own and answer questions like "why is your code slow under these circumstances? And why does it randomly crash?" Right now operations/sre/users ask that of the programmer. I don't believe GPT is anywhere near being able to reliably answer those questions because if it were, why emit such code to begin with? You would be able to prompt it to generate perfect code if it could do that, the code I have seen is impressive but full of flaws even a collegr freshman wouldn't make. To me the question is the same as dalle-e replacing artists. Even whe the drawing is not weird or just messed up it still does not "wow" you, i mean technically it qualifies and for a machine it is impressive but it just feels mediocre to the most part. I think in reality what you will see is GPT assisted IDEs giving new meaning to "code completion".