I think this is apt, but another factor is that people don't want to put in up-front effort to learn a tool (rather than make progress on their actual goal) unl

I think this is apt, but another factor is that people don't want to put in up-front effort to learn a tool (rather than make progress on their actual goal) unless they have confidence that the effort will actually be rewarded. Most people's use of technology is heavily punctuated with inscrutable, unfixable issues. If that's your experience, are you going to want to use a tool that you have to invest time and effort in before actually using it productively for the first time?