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I think it'll end at using chatgpt as a great tool. And that seems fine. I think much of the anxiety here is in the unknown. You have to learn your IDE, but it

I think it'll end at using chatgpt as a great tool. And that seems fine. I think much of the anxiety here is in the unknown. You have to learn your IDE, but it doesn't make programming harder. It makes it more fun actually. Chatgpt is going to require that devs are even better IMO because you have to catch its errors and know how to work with it.

UncleOxidant 4y ago
Yes, this stuff is fun to work with and use as an aid to programming. But I think what's dawning on a lot of us is that it seems to be able to facilitate a large increase productivity. And given that large productivity increase will industry need as many software developers (and other knowledge workers)?
- bcrosby95 4y ago
  Your opinion on this probably depends on what your job currently looks like. Everywhere I've worked there's been significantly more stuff we wanted to do than we could actually do. Speeding that up looks awesome to me. But if you work at BigCo and mostly sit on your hands already, then, yeah. I don't know.
  - coldtea 4y ago
    >Everywhere I've worked there's been significantly more stuff we wanted to do than we could actually do. Speeding that up looks awesome to me. Does it? Slowing our breakneck anti-human business pace and stopping mindless and environmentally and culturally harmful consumption and production of trinkets is surely better!
    - Karrot_Kream 4y ago
      Huh? Have you attended a local city council meeting recently? I can guarantee you they're running on shoestring budgets with an endless backlog of requests that they are only treading water on because of anemic tax revenue and low prestige for government jobs. "Productivity" isn't just some high tech, consumer bauble producing phenomenon. It helps everyone out. Highly profitable, headcount-bloated big companies are the outlier.
      - coldtea 4y ago
        I can guarantee you that the reason they do so, is an explosion of BS requests, extreme bureucracy, and needless requirements, with a simultaneous drop in actual useful basic work - on city instrastructure and such.
      - roflyear 4y ago
        > anemic tax revenue You mean, spending >1/2 their budget on police?
  - fnordpiglet 4y ago
    Every BigCo I’ve worked at (and I’ve worked at places that put the B in Big) people aren’t sitting on their hands because there isn’t way more to do than they can feasibly do. It’s usually because they’re fundamentally illsuited for the job and sitting on their hands is better than being homeless, or the people who are illsuited for their jobs feel anxious about being homeless so force everyone into meetings and team building and off sites and retrospectives and sprint planning and burn down chart analysis and whatever else they can conceive of that seems productive but doesn’t change production in any way. To that extent at least an AI would be left alone to write actual code, and those folks can have their endless meetings and still justify their job the same way they ever did. No AI will ever host a breakout session at an offsite to discuss strategy for getting people to work in the horrific hotel seating dehumanized office, they’re too capable.
    - alexthehurst 4y ago
      > No AI will ever host a breakout session at an offsite to discuss strategy for getting people to work in the horrific hotel seating dehumanized office Well, let’s hope not.
- simonw 4y ago
  I can already feel it dramatically increasing my personal productivity. I expect it's going to eventually lead to a 2x or 3x time productivity increase for software engineering generally (if not more). Will that result in less demand for software engineers? I doubt it. I think it will lead to companies and organizations doing way more software engineering. I was going to use the old "ATMs resulted in more jobs for bank tellers example", but apparently that particular example is flawed: https://www.vox.com/2017/5/8/15584268/eric-schmidt-alphabet-automation-atm-bank-teller https://www.vox.com/2017/5/8/15584268/eric-schmidt-alphabet-...
  - Animats 4y ago
    > apparently that particular example is flawed Um, yes. Been in a bank branch lately? Had to visit a bank branch for any reason?
  - whatshisface 4y ago
    Increased supply doesn't change the demand curve but there are basically no scenarios that don't lead to an increase in volume and a decrease in price.
- roflyear 4y ago
  I mean, people aren't going to be able to solve 100x as many problems because of this.
  - UncleOxidant 4y ago
    I don't think anyone is claiming that. But 2 or 3X? Possibly. And that would be enough to be a game changer.
    - roflyear 4y ago
      Yeah maybe, but will it lead to less jobs? I am not convinced.

UncleOxidant 4y ago

Yes, this stuff is fun to work with and use as an aid to programming. But I think what's dawning on a lot of us is that it seems to be able to facilitate a large increase productivity. And given that large productivity increase will industry need as many software developers (and other knowledge workers)?

bcrosby95 4y ago
Your opinion on this probably depends on what your job currently looks like. Everywhere I've worked there's been significantly more stuff we wanted to do than we could actually do. Speeding that up looks awesome to me. But if you work at BigCo and mostly sit on your hands already, then, yeah. I don't know.
- coldtea 4y ago
  >Everywhere I've worked there's been significantly more stuff we wanted to do than we could actually do. Speeding that up looks awesome to me. Does it? Slowing our breakneck anti-human business pace and stopping mindless and environmentally and culturally harmful consumption and production of trinkets is surely better!
  - Karrot_Kream 4y ago
    Huh? Have you attended a local city council meeting recently? I can guarantee you they're running on shoestring budgets with an endless backlog of requests that they are only treading water on because of anemic tax revenue and low prestige for government jobs. "Productivity" isn't just some high tech, consumer bauble producing phenomenon. It helps everyone out. Highly profitable, headcount-bloated big companies are the outlier.
    - coldtea 4y ago
      I can guarantee you that the reason they do so, is an explosion of BS requests, extreme bureucracy, and needless requirements, with a simultaneous drop in actual useful basic work - on city instrastructure and such.
    - roflyear 4y ago
      > anemic tax revenue You mean, spending >1/2 their budget on police?
- fnordpiglet 4y ago
  Every BigCo I’ve worked at (and I’ve worked at places that put the B in Big) people aren’t sitting on their hands because there isn’t way more to do than they can feasibly do. It’s usually because they’re fundamentally illsuited for the job and sitting on their hands is better than being homeless, or the people who are illsuited for their jobs feel anxious about being homeless so force everyone into meetings and team building and off sites and retrospectives and sprint planning and burn down chart analysis and whatever else they can conceive of that seems productive but doesn’t change production in any way. To that extent at least an AI would be left alone to write actual code, and those folks can have their endless meetings and still justify their job the same way they ever did. No AI will ever host a breakout session at an offsite to discuss strategy for getting people to work in the horrific hotel seating dehumanized office, they’re too capable.
  - alexthehurst 4y ago
    > No AI will ever host a breakout session at an offsite to discuss strategy for getting people to work in the horrific hotel seating dehumanized office Well, let’s hope not.
simonw 4y ago
I can already feel it dramatically increasing my personal productivity. I expect it's going to eventually lead to a 2x or 3x time productivity increase for software engineering generally (if not more). Will that result in less demand for software engineers? I doubt it. I think it will lead to companies and organizations doing way more software engineering. I was going to use the old "ATMs resulted in more jobs for bank tellers example", but apparently that particular example is flawed: https://www.vox.com/2017/5/8/15584268/eric-schmidt-alphabet-automation-atm-bank-teller https://www.vox.com/2017/5/8/15584268/eric-schmidt-alphabet-...
- Animats 4y ago
  > apparently that particular example is flawed Um, yes. Been in a bank branch lately? Had to visit a bank branch for any reason?
- whatshisface 4y ago
  Increased supply doesn't change the demand curve but there are basically no scenarios that don't lead to an increase in volume and a decrease in price.
roflyear 4y ago
I mean, people aren't going to be able to solve 100x as many problems because of this.
- UncleOxidant 4y ago
  I don't think anyone is claiming that. But 2 or 3X? Possibly. And that would be enough to be a game changer.
  - roflyear 4y ago
    Yeah maybe, but will it lead to less jobs? I am not convinced.