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Sledge hammer #1 (voice assistants, AI chips in phones) didn’t cause unemployment. It was at the level of new features and capabilities. Sledge hammer #2 is aim

Sledge hammer #1 (voice assistants, AI chips in phones) didn’t cause unemployment. It was at the level of new features and capabilities. Sledge hammer #2 is aimed squarely at “white collar” work without much in the way of bounds to its capabilities.

Jeff_Brown 4y ago
We can't trust it. That's a pretty hard bound.
- HervalFreire 4y ago
  For article writing verification is quick, I don't need to worry about a "bug" in the generated article as I do with code. For art, verification is instant, a bad generation is rejected. Trust is only a bound for certain areas, and this bound is eroding.
- anon7725 4y ago
  Consider that a lot of useful work involves summarization (search++). “What work has gone on for supply chain improvement in our European operations this year?” - this is the kind of question that is easy to ask in natural language but might take someone a week of searching, messaging, etc to assemble. An LLM with access to all of the code, documents, chats, etc could just give an answer with citations. We are not betting $1B on the answer that it gives, but it has saved us 1 week of work and allows us to move on to the next step in the project. There are plenty of tasks like this which are highly valuable yet don’t require high trust. The one-shot “what is the airspeed of a coconut-laden swallow” type questions are actually fairly rare.
- coldtea 4y ago
  We can't trust the police, politicians, or businesses either, but we're still on their hands...
  - Jeff_Brown 4y ago
    Fair. It's always a question of how much. If someday we can trust AI more than those groups (to do the kinds of things they do), that will be amazing.
- Izkata 4y ago
  There was an episode in the original Kino's Travels anime where in one country, where a computer ran everything, humans still had jobs - their work was basically just verification that the computer was correct.

Jeff_Brown 4y ago

We can't trust it. That's a pretty hard bound.

HervalFreire 4y ago
For article writing verification is quick, I don't need to worry about a "bug" in the generated article as I do with code. For art, verification is instant, a bad generation is rejected. Trust is only a bound for certain areas, and this bound is eroding.
anon7725 4y ago
Consider that a lot of useful work involves summarization (search++). “What work has gone on for supply chain improvement in our European operations this year?” - this is the kind of question that is easy to ask in natural language but might take someone a week of searching, messaging, etc to assemble. An LLM with access to all of the code, documents, chats, etc could just give an answer with citations. We are not betting $1B on the answer that it gives, but it has saved us 1 week of work and allows us to move on to the next step in the project. There are plenty of tasks like this which are highly valuable yet don’t require high trust. The one-shot “what is the airspeed of a coconut-laden swallow” type questions are actually fairly rare.
coldtea 4y ago
We can't trust the police, politicians, or businesses either, but we're still on their hands...
- Jeff_Brown 4y ago
  Fair. It's always a question of how much. If someday we can trust AI more than those groups (to do the kinds of things they do), that will be amazing.
Izkata 4y ago
There was an episode in the original Kino's Travels anime where in one country, where a computer ran everything, humans still had jobs - their work was basically just verification that the computer was correct.