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There’s a dead comment that says “Watching the collapse of the USA as a global super power. Neat.” What I think is more interesting is we’re reverting back fro

There’s a dead comment that says “Watching the collapse of the USA as a global super power. Neat.” What I think is more interesting is we’re reverting back from the unusual situation of having a single axis of power (USA) back to a more natural state of multiple “superpowers”. Personally I find this a good thing as the US became a super power BECAUSE there were other great powers (UK, Spain, Germany, USSR, etc.) and we just did things better. Without any real competition we’ve stagnated and having some competitors will do us more good than harm in the long term in my opinion.

toomuchtodo 4y ago
Russia is not competition. Between their structural demographics, brain drain, and economic decline due to sanctions, it’s very likely we see another fracturing USSR style when Putin dies (perhaps sooner, depending on what transpires as part of their Ukraine conflict). Not quite as bad as Somalia, but also no longer superpower potential. China still has some life left in them, but they missed escape velocity before they got old as a nation. They will slowly have more weight to drag as their working age population declines, no one pretends there will be future fools to buy overinflated, poorly built real estate (which is the primary savings and investment vehicle for the populace), and the elderly population quickly grows. What the US has going for it is one of the slower fertility rate decline trajectories and some semblance of an environment where innovation can occur. You don’t have to outrun the bear, only your slowest friend.
- lazypenguin 4y ago
  Yes in 2023 the US still stands at the top but it’s not a guaranteed future. To maintain that status requires maintenance and discipline. If you can do 9 laps in the time your competitors do 2 then it’s easy to stagnate. You can say, “why spend all this effort to do be able to do 9 laps, I only need to do 5 to still stay way ahead”. So you take your foot off the gas and start to coast. However if your competitors start creeping up, they start doing 3…4… now there is incentive to maintain your lead or even grow your lead more. Additionally the US is not immune to the unpredictable. What if we get another dust bowl? Energy system collapse? Civil war? These things can chip away at our “lead” if we are inattentive and ill prepared.

toomuchtodo 4y ago

Russia is not competition. Between their structural demographics, brain drain, and economic decline due to sanctions, it’s very likely we see another fracturing USSR style when Putin dies (perhaps sooner, depending on what transpires as part of their Ukraine conflict). Not quite as bad as Somalia, but also no longer superpower potential. China still has some life left in them, but they missed escape velocity before they got old as a nation. They will slowly have more weight to drag as their working age population declines, no one pretends there will be future fools to buy overinflated, poorly built real estate (which is the primary savings and investment vehicle for the populace), and the elderly population quickly grows. What the US has going for it is one of the slower fertility rate decline trajectories and some semblance of an environment where innovation can occur. You don’t have to outrun the bear, only your slowest friend.

lazypenguin 4y ago
Yes in 2023 the US still stands at the top but it’s not a guaranteed future. To maintain that status requires maintenance and discipline. If you can do 9 laps in the time your competitors do 2 then it’s easy to stagnate. You can say, “why spend all this effort to do be able to do 9 laps, I only need to do 5 to still stay way ahead”. So you take your foot off the gas and start to coast. However if your competitors start creeping up, they start doing 3…4… now there is incentive to maintain your lead or even grow your lead more. Additionally the US is not immune to the unpredictable. What if we get another dust bowl? Energy system collapse? Civil war? These things can chip away at our “lead” if we are inattentive and ill prepared.