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could be any of the US, Ukraine, Belarus or Russia or even China. They all have vested interests. Furthermore it could even be a resourceful private organisatio

could be any of the US, Ukraine, Belarus or Russia or even China. They all have vested interests. Furthermore it could even be a resourceful private organisation seeking to have influence on the war.

oneshtein 4y ago
For EU, US, Ukraine, it better to blow up pipeline at Spring or Summer, to have more time for preparation, to avoid price spike. For RF, and other natural gas producers or holders, it better to blow up pipeline at winter, to raise prices.
- Quarrelsome 4y ago
  I don't think its easy to categorically state it isn't anyone, everyone had a vested interest within each nation and each nation is so large it has many competing interests making it hard to call in any direction, especially if you consider the potential for private interest groups. The action prevented gas shipments to the EU so it could have been used as an excuse by Russia to weaponise gas supply. While blowing up the pipe seems a little extreme compared to any other action it was within the context of several 'maintenance issues' in the preceding months that prevented the EU from stocking up for the winter, so gave Russia more plausible deniability. It could be the US, Ukraine or any private organisation within Ukraine or the EU seeking to force EU governments to no longer pay Russia for their gas. It could even (4D chess time) be China realising that the loss of EU funds would result in much better negotiations with Russia for its natural resources.
  - vogre 4y ago
    > The action prevented gas shipments to the EU so it could have been used as an excuse by Russia to weaponise gas supply Russia is increasing LNG gas supply after this pipeline break. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-boosts-lng-exports-europe-by-20-2022-refinitiv-2023-01-31/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-boosts-ln... The profit from EU gas market actually covers any possible costs of any EU involvement in Ukrainian crysis, except maybe nuclear strike by France.
    - Quarrelsome 4y ago
      > The profit from EU gas market actually covers any possible costs of any EU involvement in Ukrainian crysis, except maybe nuclear strike by France. So how much is the life worth of six conscripted Russian soldiers in an APV killed by an NLAW? I struggle to understand how you've done the maths. Furthermore I believe that the Russian Federation's current issues are not wholly money but ability to produce the complex components required for new armour.
      - vogre 4y ago
        > how much is the life worth of six conscripted Russian soldiers in an APV killed by an NLAW? Mobilized Russian soldier's family gets about 65k usd after soldier's death. The price of MTLB is about 50k usd. So the whole pack costs about 500k USD(including ammo, personal equipment, etc). In 2021 Russia's profit of selling gas to EU was about 150 millions of dollars per day. You do the math.
        Quarrelsome 4y ago
        You're valuing the impact of a citizen as the compensation paid for their death. You're not factoring in the long-term support of widows, the impact on fatherless children, future birth rate, social unrest or loss to GDP for the jobs they had before their lives were thrown away for nothing in the Donbas. Keep mathing.
        vogre 4y ago
        Still less than 150m/day

could be any of the US, Ukraine, Belarus or Russia or even China. They all have vested interests. Furthermore it could even be a resourceful private organisation seeking to have influence on the war.

oneshtein 4y ago

For EU, US, Ukraine, it better to blow up pipeline at Spring or Summer, to have more time for preparation, to avoid price spike. For RF, and other natural gas producers or holders, it better to blow up pipeline at winter, to raise prices.

Quarrelsome 4y ago
I don't think its easy to categorically state it isn't anyone, everyone had a vested interest within each nation and each nation is so large it has many competing interests making it hard to call in any direction, especially if you consider the potential for private interest groups. The action prevented gas shipments to the EU so it could have been used as an excuse by Russia to weaponise gas supply. While blowing up the pipe seems a little extreme compared to any other action it was within the context of several 'maintenance issues' in the preceding months that prevented the EU from stocking up for the winter, so gave Russia more plausible deniability. It could be the US, Ukraine or any private organisation within Ukraine or the EU seeking to force EU governments to no longer pay Russia for their gas. It could even (4D chess time) be China realising that the loss of EU funds would result in much better negotiations with Russia for its natural resources.
- vogre 4y ago
  > The action prevented gas shipments to the EU so it could have been used as an excuse by Russia to weaponise gas supply Russia is increasing LNG gas supply after this pipeline break. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-boosts-lng-exports-europe-by-20-2022-refinitiv-2023-01-31/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-boosts-ln... The profit from EU gas market actually covers any possible costs of any EU involvement in Ukrainian crysis, except maybe nuclear strike by France.
  - Quarrelsome 4y ago
    > The profit from EU gas market actually covers any possible costs of any EU involvement in Ukrainian crysis, except maybe nuclear strike by France. So how much is the life worth of six conscripted Russian soldiers in an APV killed by an NLAW? I struggle to understand how you've done the maths. Furthermore I believe that the Russian Federation's current issues are not wholly money but ability to produce the complex components required for new armour.
    - vogre 4y ago
      > how much is the life worth of six conscripted Russian soldiers in an APV killed by an NLAW? Mobilized Russian soldier's family gets about 65k usd after soldier's death. The price of MTLB is about 50k usd. So the whole pack costs about 500k USD(including ammo, personal equipment, etc). In 2021 Russia's profit of selling gas to EU was about 150 millions of dollars per day. You do the math.
      - Quarrelsome 4y ago
        You're valuing the impact of a citizen as the compensation paid for their death. You're not factoring in the long-term support of widows, the impact on fatherless children, future birth rate, social unrest or loss to GDP for the jobs they had before their lives were thrown away for nothing in the Donbas. Keep mathing.
        vogre 4y ago
        Still less than 150m/day