3 ms·

> Can you say it was a bad decision for the people who took the risk, took out loans, and eventually became tenured professors? Yes. A decision can only be ev

> Can you say it was a bad decision for the people who took the risk, took out loans, and eventually became tenured professors? Yes. A decision can only be evaluated using what is known at the time, not what is later known in hindsight. Betting on an inside straight in poker is a bad bet, even if in one particular instance you got the card needed.

lapcat 4y ago
Ok, as long as you're willing to admit by this same logic that basically every billionaire in the world made a series of bad decisions that don't deserve to be celebrated. How do you know in advance, as a 20something, that you're doctor material, or lawyer material, until you actually go through med school or law school? What exactly is the "safe" route in life, Nostradamus?
- MereInterest 4y ago
  First, I don't celebrate billionaires for their survivorship bias. Second, there isn't a safe route, but we as society can avoid putting up additional hazards. As a 20-something, without going through med school or law school, you don't know if it's something you want to do. As a society, we want this hypothetical 20-something to go to med school or law school to find out. Therefore, we should make failure be an acceptable outcome, minimizing the risk for the potential student. In this case, that means publicly funding their education, such that dropping out doesn't place the student with a massive debt. ------- For context on the PhD probabilities, a professor will typically be supervising 3-4 students at any given time. A professor's career is typically about 30-40 years, and the duration of a PhD program is about 4-6 years. Therefore, over the course of a professor's career, they will supervise around 25-ish freshly minted PhDs. With an average 2% annual population growth, the population will roughly double over that time period. So on average, a professor will produce about 25 PhDs, after which there will be one empty position due to the professor retiring, and one new position due to a larger need for professors. Two spots for 25 people is not a good bet, if you do a PhD program will the goal of becoming a professor.
  - lapcat 4y ago
    > there isn't a safe route That's my point. You want to talk about personal "bad decisions", but what's a "good decision" and why, given that all of the lucrative careers require a series of risks in order to enter the field and become successful in it? > we as society can avoid putting up additional hazards Agreed, but I wasn't arguing against that, just against the criticism of individuals for having personal ambition and taking risks.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]

lapcat 4y ago

Ok, as long as you're willing to admit by this same logic that basically every billionaire in the world made a series of bad decisions that don't deserve to be celebrated. How do you know in advance, as a 20something, that you're doctor material, or lawyer material, until you actually go through med school or law school? What exactly is the "safe" route in life, Nostradamus?

MereInterest 4y ago
First, I don't celebrate billionaires for their survivorship bias. Second, there isn't a safe route, but we as society can avoid putting up additional hazards. As a 20-something, without going through med school or law school, you don't know if it's something you want to do. As a society, we want this hypothetical 20-something to go to med school or law school to find out. Therefore, we should make failure be an acceptable outcome, minimizing the risk for the potential student. In this case, that means publicly funding their education, such that dropping out doesn't place the student with a massive debt. ------- For context on the PhD probabilities, a professor will typically be supervising 3-4 students at any given time. A professor's career is typically about 30-40 years, and the duration of a PhD program is about 4-6 years. Therefore, over the course of a professor's career, they will supervise around 25-ish freshly minted PhDs. With an average 2% annual population growth, the population will roughly double over that time period. So on average, a professor will produce about 25 PhDs, after which there will be one empty position due to the professor retiring, and one new position due to a larger need for professors. Two spots for 25 people is not a good bet, if you do a PhD program will the goal of becoming a professor.
- lapcat 4y ago
  > there isn't a safe route That's my point. You want to talk about personal "bad decisions", but what's a "good decision" and why, given that all of the lucrative careers require a series of risks in order to enter the field and become successful in it? > we as society can avoid putting up additional hazards Agreed, but I wasn't arguing against that, just against the criticism of individuals for having personal ambition and taking risks.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]