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Nothing is in stasis right now. There's no mechanism to make things pause and then happen all at once. If AI can enhance lethality of drones right now, in Ukra

by vba616 4y ago

Nothing is in stasis right now. There's no mechanism to make things pause and then happen all at once. If AI can enhance lethality of drones right now, in Ukraine or elsewhere, then they will start using it immediately. If it doesn't work, they will discover it doesn't work. If we are lucky enough to not be on a battlefield now, then we will get to learn something from those who are.

pixl97 4y ago
This does work / doesn't work model you have in your head is not very well thought out. There are many systems that can operate well until they fail nearly instantly and catastrophically. In an integrated weapons system you can imagine some worst case scenarios that end in global thermonuclear war. Not exactly the outcome anyone wants.
- vba616 4y ago
  I saw the movie you're talking about. It was called WarGames and came out in 1983. But forty years later, killer drones are all over the place. "imagine some worst case scenarios that end in global thermonuclear war" Ok, sure, I can't really imagine it but I can't rule it out. What I can't imagine is somehow everybody waits around for it and doesn't use similar AI for immediate needs in ongoing wars like in Ukraine. And I can't really imagine AI that launches all the nuclear missiles causing global thermonuclear war, purely in a semantic sense, because whoever set up that situation would've launched them anyway without the AI.
  - pixl97 4y ago
    It's OK, you simply lack imagination. Ok course we keep humanizing these thoughts, while we're creating more capable digital aliens every day. Then one day we'll act all surprised for a few minutes when we've created super powered digital aliens that act nothing like we expect, because the only intelligence we see is our own.
    - vba616 4y ago
      >It's OK, you simply lack imagination. "Imagine" is a word that has more than one sense. I can "imagine" a possibility whether or not I think its probability is > 0%. Saying "I can't imagine" can be a way of saying yeah, I think the probability is 0%. But if I can state the probability, I must have some kind of model in my head, so in that sense I am "imagining" it. "Imagine" that strategic bombing was invented, and then everybody just waited around without doing it until there was a bomb that could destroy an entire city - i.e. Trinity. In one sense, sure, I/you/we can imagine it. But it seems to me that sort of thing would be unprecedented in all of human history, so in another sense it seems impossible - unimaginable - although in a softer way than a violation of physics or logic. The last bit of my previous comment was about logical impossibility, by the way.

by vba616 4y ago

pixl97 4y ago

This does work / doesn't work model you have in your head is not very well thought out. There are many systems that can operate well until they fail nearly instantly and catastrophically. In an integrated weapons system you can imagine some worst case scenarios that end in global thermonuclear war. Not exactly the outcome anyone wants.

vba616 4y ago
I saw the movie you're talking about. It was called WarGames and came out in 1983. But forty years later, killer drones are all over the place. "imagine some worst case scenarios that end in global thermonuclear war" Ok, sure, I can't really imagine it but I can't rule it out. What I can't imagine is somehow everybody waits around for it and doesn't use similar AI for immediate needs in ongoing wars like in Ukraine. And I can't really imagine AI that launches all the nuclear missiles causing global thermonuclear war, purely in a semantic sense, because whoever set up that situation would've launched them anyway without the AI.
- pixl97 4y ago
  It's OK, you simply lack imagination. Ok course we keep humanizing these thoughts, while we're creating more capable digital aliens every day. Then one day we'll act all surprised for a few minutes when we've created super powered digital aliens that act nothing like we expect, because the only intelligence we see is our own.
  - vba616 4y ago
    >It's OK, you simply lack imagination. "Imagine" is a word that has more than one sense. I can "imagine" a possibility whether or not I think its probability is > 0%. Saying "I can't imagine" can be a way of saying yeah, I think the probability is 0%. But if I can state the probability, I must have some kind of model in my head, so in that sense I am "imagining" it. "Imagine" that strategic bombing was invented, and then everybody just waited around without doing it until there was a bomb that could destroy an entire city - i.e. Trinity. In one sense, sure, I/you/we can imagine it. But it seems to me that sort of thing would be unprecedented in all of human history, so in another sense it seems impossible - unimaginable - although in a softer way than a violation of physics or logic. The last bit of my previous comment was about logical impossibility, by the way.