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You still haven't stepped away from historical induction -- your argument still depends on this time not being radically different than last time. There are goo
by 1attice 4y ago
You still haven't stepped away from historical induction -- your argument still depends on this time not being radically different than last time. There are good reasons -- presented everywhere, right now -- to suppose that this time is substantively different. Sundar Pichai called the invention of AI the most important thing humanity has worked on -- more important than fire, or the alphabet -- and I share his view. It's out there, commonly, in the intellectual wild; you cannot, on pain of being unconvincing, simply ignore it. "Big, if true," and it very well might be. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqd516M0Y5A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqd516M0Y5A
I propose that you invest in a more convincing line of argument. The burden of proof lies heavy upon you.
Secondly -- for the life of me -- I don't see how we got from "prosperity doesn't come from jobs that are little more than make-work" (a claim, by the way, that Keynes would take exception to) to the view that automating most of the intellectual work on the planet will have nugatory impact, or that we'll all just vy to become celebrated Twitch streamers or influencers or whatever (assuming that synthetic influencers don't take off -- oh, wait, they did: https://www.synthesia.io/glossary/ai-influencer https://www.synthesia.io/glossary/ai-influencer)
Even were you correct (and Keynes wrong), the instantaneous conversion of meaningful labour --- journalism, counselling, engineering -- into, as you say, "make-work" (the position I infer you are taking) would have tremendous cost.
Need I invoke Rawls here on widely-distributed self-respect/self-esteem? It's actually one of the prerequisites, he notes, for a stable civilization; https://academic.oup.com/book/32571/chapter-abstract/270366531?redirectedFrom=fulltext https://academic.oup.com/book/32571/chapter-abstract/2703665...
At minimum, the psychological impact of such a transition would make the developed world's COVID hangover look like a day at the zoo.
Finally, the Parable of the Broken Window specifically refers to destructive work. Non-productive work is not covered. https://finshots.in/archive/dig-holes-and-get-paid-to-fill-them-up/ https://finshots.in/archive/dig-holes-and-get-paid-to-fill-t.... And that is to say nothing about how economic fruits are distributed -- a whole other matter, upon which, I again infer, you have no further comment.
- 1attice 4y agoAllow me to indulge in my own historical induction. Up until Louis Pasteur invented the germ theory of illness, it was broadly understood, across many different cultures, that disease had its origins in one or all of: witchcraft, possession, loose morals, blocked meridians, etc. Were you to do historical induction on the spawning of illness theory, you might well conclude that no theory of illness would be scientifically verifiable. You might have argued that anyone claiming a radical change in medicine was deluded, alarmist, or simply excitable. And you would have missed out on the multiple decades of extra health that you've had on account of antibiotics, sterile procedure, and disinfectant. Your induction from history would have caused you to miss the disanalogy. Something to think about next time you're at the doctor.
- WalterBright 4y agoNon-productive work is exactly what breaking a window and then fixing it is, as well as doing work that is far better done by machine. As to distribution of economic fruits, as I mentioned before, replacing labor with machines made the US the most prosperous country in history, along with the richest poor people.
- 1attice 4y agoNon-productive work is not destructive work -- again, Keynes ditches. Your country, the USA, is very close to system collapse because of its inequal distribution of fruits. I daresay it makes good popcorn-time.
- WalterBright 4y ago> Non-productive work is not destructive work -- again, Keynes ditches. Sorry, but breaking a window and then fixing it is non-productive. > Your country, the USA, is very close to system collapse because of its inequal distribution of fruits. Hardly. If the US will collapse, it's because of the current leftist swing of the government engaging in ever-increasing wealth redistribution. > I daresay it makes good popcorn-time. It's the equal distribution of income countries that repeatedly collapse. France is in the news currently because they've discovered that the math of redistribution does not work, and the people who cannot accept the math are rioting.
- 1attice 4y agoYou could literally be hit by an asteroid and you'd find a way to blame "leftists." Good night and good luck
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]