3 ms·
If BTFP can only be used by banks with hold to market bonds purchased before March 12th, then wouldn't the impact on bond prices be negligible? I suppose we cou
by qqqwerty 4y ago
If BTFP can only be used by banks with hold to market bonds purchased before March 12th, then wouldn't the impact on bond prices be negligible? I suppose we could hypothesize what the bond market would like in the absence of BTFP and the much higher likely hood of contagion. Feels like yields would drop on the expectation that the Fed would be forced to lower rates due the crashing economy. So I guess one could argue that BTFP might cause yields to go down a little bit, but probably a lot less than they would have otherwise.
As to question 3, BTFP feels like a small dash of QE after pushing QT a little too hard and too fast. Banks will probably just put that extra cash into short term treasuries to shore up their balance sheet to protect against declining deposits. So I guess we should expect that extra cash to push short term yields down. Short term yields have already dropped a bit though, so maybe that is already priced in.
- rcme 4y agoThe bond market is massive. A large majority of bonds were purchased before March 12th. As for the QE/QT performed by the Fed. The Fed's balance sheet has already increased by 300 billion, which undoes like half a year of QT. JPMC estimates a total of 2T in liquidity. Not only will that undo all QT, it will bring the Fed balance sheet to new all time highs.