My prediction is that we're probably soon getting to an inflection point where gains made by transformer-based AI models will soon be again more incremental tha

My prediction is that we're probably soon getting to an inflection point where gains made by transformer-based AI models will soon be again more incremental than revolutionary. The mildly informed reasoning being based on training data availability (GPT3/4 being trained on a good chunk of the internet), training and running costs not coming down as fast as in the past due to diminished Moore's law, and GPT4 going multi-modal (is text-based training close to maxed out?). I do think that there will be another leap in 5-10 years and equally exciting developments in other applications of AI.