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The ESA/ArianeGroup was blindsided by the economic feasibility of rocket reuse. They have only recently come to terms with this and begun developing their own

The ESA/ArianeGroup was blindsided by the economic feasibility of rocket reuse. They have only recently come to terms with this and begun developing their own semi-reusable equivalent to Falcon 9. Ariane 6 (no reuse) hasn't even flown yet but is already obsolete. A European Falcon 9 equivalent is many years away. I expect the EU to continue building their own rockets anyway, so they don't have to rely on the US and/or Russia. They do want their own launch capability as you mention. But will they produce anything that can compete with SpaceX for the sort of contracts that could go to an American company? Not anytime soon; they're already years behind and if Starship flies soon the gap will be huge.

AtlasBarfed 4y ago
But once starship gets into service, come on, that might be the most targeted piece of intellectual property in the history of corporate espionage. Why develop your own? If you are china/russia/india, you simply steal it. If you are the EU/Japan, you "cross-license". What does foreign patent law mean when national security is on the line? Starship is going to be an INSANE strategic and tactical weapon for the US government, if only for the rapid deployment ability. Starship is a private company. It will be so easy to steal. You simply bribe employees, or plant them.
- stametseater 4y ago
  Absolutely it will be a target of intense espionage, but I think building the machine itself is only part of the trouble. A big part of making the machine like that work reliably is having the right sort of work culture, otherwise errors and anomalies will get swept under the rug with disastrous results. I think this will be even more necessary with reusable rockets than with one-off disposable rockets, since with reusable rockets you have to constantly re-validate used hardware, not just brand new parts. The right sort of safety culture isn't as easy to steal as some CAD files. Even if you stole all the plans, it would be many years of hard work to get an organization into the right sort of shape to build and operate the machine. As for SpaceX being a private company and therefore unusually easy to infiltrate... no. All US defense contractors are private companies, SpaceX being a private company isn't anything special. A B-21 bomber isn't made in a government-run factory, it is made in a Northrop Grumman factory. Spy satellites, missile seeker heads, stealth jet RAM coatings, IFF and crypto systems... all of these things are made by companies contracted by the government. The FBI/etc counter-espionage specialists are well accustomed to this sort of work, SpaceX is nothing special in this regard.

AtlasBarfed 4y ago

But once starship gets into service, come on, that might be the most targeted piece of intellectual property in the history of corporate espionage. Why develop your own? If you are china/russia/india, you simply steal it. If you are the EU/Japan, you "cross-license". What does foreign patent law mean when national security is on the line? Starship is going to be an INSANE strategic and tactical weapon for the US government, if only for the rapid deployment ability. Starship is a private company. It will be so easy to steal. You simply bribe employees, or plant them.

stametseater 4y ago
Absolutely it will be a target of intense espionage, but I think building the machine itself is only part of the trouble. A big part of making the machine like that work reliably is having the right sort of work culture, otherwise errors and anomalies will get swept under the rug with disastrous results. I think this will be even more necessary with reusable rockets than with one-off disposable rockets, since with reusable rockets you have to constantly re-validate used hardware, not just brand new parts. The right sort of safety culture isn't as easy to steal as some CAD files. Even if you stole all the plans, it would be many years of hard work to get an organization into the right sort of shape to build and operate the machine. As for SpaceX being a private company and therefore unusually easy to infiltrate... no. All US defense contractors are private companies, SpaceX being a private company isn't anything special. A B-21 bomber isn't made in a government-run factory, it is made in a Northrop Grumman factory. Spy satellites, missile seeker heads, stealth jet RAM coatings, IFF and crypto systems... all of these things are made by companies contracted by the government. The FBI/etc counter-espionage specialists are well accustomed to this sort of work, SpaceX is nothing special in this regard.