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Yes, but the odds of them finding a buyer are astronomical. Full reusability is the future. Even ULA is reportedly up for sale after backing away from plans for

Yes, but the odds of them finding a buyer are astronomical. Full reusability is the future. Even ULA is reportedly up for sale after backing away from plans for their new rocket to be reusable. The new space race will be SpaceX and Blue Origin.

stametseater 4y ago
Blue Origin failing to deliver on time is a big part of the reason ULA is floundering. ULA bet on Blue Origin being able to provide engines for the Vulcan Centaur in a timely manner, but what they got were years of delays. And now that Bezos had his little joyride, he seems to have checked space off his bucket list and turned his attention towards yachting with his new wife, so I don't expect we'll see productive management reform in Blue Origin anytime soon. The real space race is between SpaceX and China.
- ben_w 4y ago
  For the moment it's SpaceX vs everyone else combined, given how far ahead they are. I won't rule out China rising to the challenge, but I also wouldn't want to rule out Relativity Space and their 3D printing, nor some as-yet unannounced group saying they've made a breakthrough with superconducting levitation or active support structures or skyhooks or fusion-powered second stages that let them go directly (from a high altitude but suborbital first stage so you don't have to worry about backscattered radiation from the air) to Δv = 0.1c.
- panick21_ 4y ago
  Yeah but here is the reality of the situation. The AR-15, the alternative engine, was years behind the BE-4 in development and likely would have been delayed just as much and also costs more for worse performance and a with a company behind it that has no independent interest in the engine. Also, ULA is not floundering. In fact the opposite. Amazon bought all Ariane 5s and given the increasingly constrained launch market, if you have a heavy lifter that can launch, you likely get some contracts. Bezos might be yachting, but he is currently spending 2-3 billion a year on a company that doesn't have revenue. So he is serious and they will just push threw.
deleted 4y ago
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AtlasBarfed 4y ago
... in the USA. Japan, China, Russia, and the EU will all insist on their own rocket launch capability, won't they? At a minimum SpaceX shows the path to Starship-level reductions in launch payload costs, then the other state actors will follow the formula. If this just represents flawed approaches being trimmed from the marketplace, well ok. ... Blue Origin needs to get to "real" orbit, right? Last I heard they were resorting to troll-lawsuits against SpaceX because they weren't getting government launch contracts. Yeah, because... you ... can't yet?
- kown7 4y ago
  Europe will have to develop a fully reusable launcher to be competitive. Let's call it Ariane 7 and expect it to fly around 2035. They first have to get Ariane 6 off the ground and that's, from what I've heard, a horribly slow process.
- stametseater 4y ago
  The ESA/ArianeGroup was blindsided by the economic feasibility of rocket reuse. They have only recently come to terms with this and begun developing their own semi-reusable equivalent to Falcon 9. Ariane 6 (no reuse) hasn't even flown yet but is already obsolete. A European Falcon 9 equivalent is many years away. I expect the EU to continue building their own rockets anyway, so they don't have to rely on the US and/or Russia. They do want their own launch capability as you mention. But will they produce anything that can compete with SpaceX for the sort of contracts that could go to an American company? Not anytime soon; they're already years behind and if Starship flies soon the gap will be huge.
  - AtlasBarfed 4y ago
    But once starship gets into service, come on, that might be the most targeted piece of intellectual property in the history of corporate espionage. Why develop your own? If you are china/russia/india, you simply steal it. If you are the EU/Japan, you "cross-license". What does foreign patent law mean when national security is on the line? Starship is going to be an INSANE strategic and tactical weapon for the US government, if only for the rapid deployment ability. Starship is a private company. It will be so easy to steal. You simply bribe employees, or plant them.
palebluedot 4y ago
Rocket Lab will likely be a contender in there, as well
- DennisP 4y ago
  And Stoke Space, which is going for full reusability with an aerospike on the second stage. Everyday Astronaut got a visit and it seemed pretty impressive. https://everydayastronaut.com/stoke-space/ https://everydayastronaut.com/stoke-space/
benj111 4y ago
>astronomical So does that mean it's likely in this context?

stametseater 4y ago

Blue Origin failing to deliver on time is a big part of the reason ULA is floundering. ULA bet on Blue Origin being able to provide engines for the Vulcan Centaur in a timely manner, but what they got were years of delays. And now that Bezos had his little joyride, he seems to have checked space off his bucket list and turned his attention towards yachting with his new wife, so I don't expect we'll see productive management reform in Blue Origin anytime soon. The real space race is between SpaceX and China.

ben_w 4y ago
For the moment it's SpaceX vs everyone else combined, given how far ahead they are. I won't rule out China rising to the challenge, but I also wouldn't want to rule out Relativity Space and their 3D printing, nor some as-yet unannounced group saying they've made a breakthrough with superconducting levitation or active support structures or skyhooks or fusion-powered second stages that let them go directly (from a high altitude but suborbital first stage so you don't have to worry about backscattered radiation from the air) to Δv = 0.1c.
panick21_ 4y ago
Yeah but here is the reality of the situation. The AR-15, the alternative engine, was years behind the BE-4 in development and likely would have been delayed just as much and also costs more for worse performance and a with a company behind it that has no independent interest in the engine. Also, ULA is not floundering. In fact the opposite. Amazon bought all Ariane 5s and given the increasingly constrained launch market, if you have a heavy lifter that can launch, you likely get some contracts. Bezos might be yachting, but he is currently spending 2-3 billion a year on a company that doesn't have revenue. So he is serious and they will just push threw.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

AtlasBarfed 4y ago

... in the USA. Japan, China, Russia, and the EU will all insist on their own rocket launch capability, won't they? At a minimum SpaceX shows the path to Starship-level reductions in launch payload costs, then the other state actors will follow the formula. If this just represents flawed approaches being trimmed from the marketplace, well ok. ... Blue Origin needs to get to "real" orbit, right? Last I heard they were resorting to troll-lawsuits against SpaceX because they weren't getting government launch contracts. Yeah, because... you ... can't yet?

kown7 4y ago
Europe will have to develop a fully reusable launcher to be competitive. Let's call it Ariane 7 and expect it to fly around 2035. They first have to get Ariane 6 off the ground and that's, from what I've heard, a horribly slow process.
stametseater 4y ago
The ESA/ArianeGroup was blindsided by the economic feasibility of rocket reuse. They have only recently come to terms with this and begun developing their own semi-reusable equivalent to Falcon 9. Ariane 6 (no reuse) hasn't even flown yet but is already obsolete. A European Falcon 9 equivalent is many years away. I expect the EU to continue building their own rockets anyway, so they don't have to rely on the US and/or Russia. They do want their own launch capability as you mention. But will they produce anything that can compete with SpaceX for the sort of contracts that could go to an American company? Not anytime soon; they're already years behind and if Starship flies soon the gap will be huge.
- AtlasBarfed 4y ago
  But once starship gets into service, come on, that might be the most targeted piece of intellectual property in the history of corporate espionage. Why develop your own? If you are china/russia/india, you simply steal it. If you are the EU/Japan, you "cross-license". What does foreign patent law mean when national security is on the line? Starship is going to be an INSANE strategic and tactical weapon for the US government, if only for the rapid deployment ability. Starship is a private company. It will be so easy to steal. You simply bribe employees, or plant them.

palebluedot 4y ago

Rocket Lab will likely be a contender in there, as well

DennisP 4y ago
And Stoke Space, which is going for full reusability with an aerospike on the second stage. Everyday Astronaut got a visit and it seemed pretty impressive. https://everydayastronaut.com/stoke-space/ https://everydayastronaut.com/stoke-space/

benj111 4y ago

>astronomical So does that mean it's likely in this context?