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I understand our perspectives differ because I think we are right at the edge of fast take-off and you outlined your view as slow take-off. Computers were bicy
by code51 4y ago
I understand our perspectives differ because I think we are right at the edge of fast take-off and you outlined your view as slow take-off.
Computers were bicycles for our minds, applying our previously formulated solutions to scale. I agree I did not explicitly clarify that I was meaning high-level decision-making getting automated.
“It’s not the end of the world” begs for definition of what end of the world looks like. A meteor is not end of the world apparently but it killed the dinosaurs.
- simonh 4y agoWell, I'll put my big mouth on the line and make a prediction. 12 years ago we all thought self-driving cars would be with us by now, and my wife genuinely wondered whether our kids would need to learn how to drive. My youngest passed her test a few months ago. There's a significant low hanging fruit effect in AI domains. We rapidly reach a 90% solution, but that last 10% is absolutely critical, and virtually impossible to attain. I think these LLMs will follow the same trajectory. They will quickly become incredibly valuable or even indispensable tools, but the alignment problem and over-fitting will come to limit their reliable applicability in critical edge cases that make skilled human oversight essential. This will relegate them to the role of productivity enhancement rather than genuine labour substitution.