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Peter Zeihan is predicting [1] that this is the last revision of the iPhone, given the manufacturing situation in China and Apple's deep roots there. It's an in

Peter Zeihan is predicting [1] that this is the last revision of the iPhone, given the manufacturing situation in China and Apple's deep roots there. It's an interesting assessment of the challenges Apple faces due to the deteriorating relationship between the US and China. [1] https://investorplace.com/2022/06/aapl-stock-drop-apple-amid-supply-chain-chaos/ https://investorplace.com/2022/06/aapl-stock-drop-apple-amid...

7e 4y ago
Apple’s stock is up since the author warned people from buying it, and made other predictions which didn’t really pan out.
7e 4y ago
If necessary, supply chain will be created in Vietnam, served by Japan, Korea and Taiwan. This article is nonsense.
- politician 4y ago
  It's going to take time to migrate production and will take time to work out the issues. - https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2023/01/01/apple-to-diversify-its-supply-chain-by-producing-macbooks-in-vietnam/?sh=42c80f0b7d75 https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2023/01/01/apple-to-diversi... - https://macdailynews.com/2023/02/13/how-apple-plans-to-diversify-its-supply-chain-away-from-china/ https://macdailynews.com/2023/02/13/how-apple-plans-to-diver...
nebula8804 4y ago
Never underestimate Apple's ability to pull something out of its rear end and present it as the next big thing. Zeihan has elaborated on this topic in other more detailed videos/articles and it seems like the main concern is the reliance on TSMC. If the cutting edge factories in Taiwan manage to go down it would be the end of Apple's top of the line chipsets used in the Pro iPhones, Macs etc. If this is the case I don't see why Apple couldn't ship an iPhone using older nodes made in other fabs as an interim solution but dress them up using fancy software or other hardware that does not rely on newer nodes? It has been announced that the Arizona fab will be using 5nm. Isn't that what M1 is using? Thats not too bad and given that Apple has practically unlimited cash reserves, whats to stop them from writing a check to just buy out all the production of this Arizona fab once it starts up in 2024? Things like iMessage and Memojis are software based solutions that help differentiate iPhone as a premium product that others cannot easily clone. Yeah I know I know, a lot of HN people are going to come out of the woodwork and decry that it is still not good value and they have said this for years but the greater market has disagreed with HN so far and they are ones who ultimately matter to Apple. You can't rule out how Apple has used software that people really enjoy (in addition to hardware) as a basis for their differentiation in the market.
- safety1st 4y ago
  Yeah I think this is the right take. The current generation iPhone SoC is on a 5nm process. The Arizona fab will do 5nm initially. Apple has recently purchased TSMC's entire upcoming 3nm production and plans to use it for the next gen iPhone and MacBook. While the actually assembly is done mostly in China, Apple is already assembling a small number of iPhones in India and working on ramping up production there as well as looking at Vietnam. In the unlikely event that China storms Taiwan and seizes the foundries or something, at this point the outcome for Apple would be that they would just delay the next iPhone and use another 5nm SoC in it. Most consumers would be oblivious. Big deal, the world's richest company would suffer some delays, some junkies who are addicted to always buying the newest phone would cry a lot, overall no one would care that much. TSMC would get 3nm up and running outside of Taiwan sooner or later, and/or other fabs would catch up. I don't think it would lead to as much of a meltdown as people have been saying. (The subsequent world war on the other hand...) Edit: Looks like the latest iPhone 14 Pro is actually on 4nm, not 5nm, but unless China invades like tomorrow I don't think this really changes the equation much.

7e 4y ago

Apple’s stock is up since the author warned people from buying it, and made other predictions which didn’t really pan out.

7e 4y ago

If necessary, supply chain will be created in Vietnam, served by Japan, Korea and Taiwan. This article is nonsense.

politician 4y ago
It's going to take time to migrate production and will take time to work out the issues. - https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2023/01/01/apple-to-diversify-its-supply-chain-by-producing-macbooks-in-vietnam/?sh=42c80f0b7d75 https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2023/01/01/apple-to-diversi... - https://macdailynews.com/2023/02/13/how-apple-plans-to-diversify-its-supply-chain-away-from-china/ https://macdailynews.com/2023/02/13/how-apple-plans-to-diver...

nebula8804 4y ago

Never underestimate Apple's ability to pull something out of its rear end and present it as the next big thing. Zeihan has elaborated on this topic in other more detailed videos/articles and it seems like the main concern is the reliance on TSMC. If the cutting edge factories in Taiwan manage to go down it would be the end of Apple's top of the line chipsets used in the Pro iPhones, Macs etc. If this is the case I don't see why Apple couldn't ship an iPhone using older nodes made in other fabs as an interim solution but dress them up using fancy software or other hardware that does not rely on newer nodes? It has been announced that the Arizona fab will be using 5nm. Isn't that what M1 is using? Thats not too bad and given that Apple has practically unlimited cash reserves, whats to stop them from writing a check to just buy out all the production of this Arizona fab once it starts up in 2024? Things like iMessage and Memojis are software based solutions that help differentiate iPhone as a premium product that others cannot easily clone. Yeah I know I know, a lot of HN people are going to come out of the woodwork and decry that it is still not good value and they have said this for years but the greater market has disagreed with HN so far and they are ones who ultimately matter to Apple. You can't rule out how Apple has used software that people really enjoy (in addition to hardware) as a basis for their differentiation in the market.

safety1st 4y ago
Yeah I think this is the right take. The current generation iPhone SoC is on a 5nm process. The Arizona fab will do 5nm initially. Apple has recently purchased TSMC's entire upcoming 3nm production and plans to use it for the next gen iPhone and MacBook. While the actually assembly is done mostly in China, Apple is already assembling a small number of iPhones in India and working on ramping up production there as well as looking at Vietnam. In the unlikely event that China storms Taiwan and seizes the foundries or something, at this point the outcome for Apple would be that they would just delay the next iPhone and use another 5nm SoC in it. Most consumers would be oblivious. Big deal, the world's richest company would suffer some delays, some junkies who are addicted to always buying the newest phone would cry a lot, overall no one would care that much. TSMC would get 3nm up and running outside of Taiwan sooner or later, and/or other fabs would catch up. I don't think it would lead to as much of a meltdown as people have been saying. (The subsequent world war on the other hand...) Edit: Looks like the latest iPhone 14 Pro is actually on 4nm, not 5nm, but unless China invades like tomorrow I don't think this really changes the equation much.