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The amount of Type I errors that get made (that we know about) in our (USA) justice system is really wild when you truly consider the consequences. The Innocen

The amount of Type I errors that get made (that we know about) in our (USA) justice system is really wild when you truly consider the consequences. The Innocent Project estimates that 1% of all prisoners are innocent. Hard to say if that number is accurate, but go ahead and cut it in half if you like. 0.5%. Doesn't seem like a lot in percentage terms. But of the 850 people in the jail system that the EFF is talking about here, that means at least 4 people are innocent and can't even receive a letter. Imagine if that was you. Man, it's hard to imagine. It's hard to even imagine. "Nationwide, over 500,000 people are incarcerated in county jails like the one in Redwood City, 427,000 of whom have not been found guilty and are still awaiting trial." Apply that same 0.5% here, and that's 2,135 people. There are literally thousands of innocent people in the prison system. Thousands. A bus seats like 50 people. Imagine 40 buses full of innocent people going to jail, and that's the reality we live in.

Swizec 4y ago
> have not been found guilty and are still awaiting trial PIMA had an interview with a sheriff recently. The figure that stood out to me was when he said it takes an average of 1.8 years for people in his jail to finally get to trial. 1.8 years in jail before they even decide if you're guilty. Hard to even imagine. https://freakonomics.com/podcast/chicagos-renegade-sheriff-wants-to-fix-law-enforcement/ https://freakonomics.com/podcast/chicagos-renegade-sheriff-w...
- jamiek88 4y ago
  Justice delayed is justice denied. That’s a fundamental principle of common law. This is an outrage.
  - biomcgary 4y ago
    Not just common law. In the US, it is spelled out in the Bill of Rights. Unfortunately, the legal system has so distorted the plain meaning of "speedy trial" that we end up with insane, but "Constitutional" situations.
    - mydogcanpurr 4y ago
      I was going to ask what happened to the 6th amendment, but it sounds like it's in the garbage with all the others.
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
      - throwaway_6th 4y ago
        The 6th only covers situations where you explicitly object to a delay in your speedy trial right. Often it's in the interest of the defense to delay a trial as a tactic in preventing a conviction (e.g. by introducing a defense that the victim doesn't recall exactly). Also stupid shit like the prosecution withholding or delaying evidence that would tend to exonerate the defendant happens. What tends to happen is that the prosecution and the defendants lawyer agree to continuance after continuance. (Source: been there done that, had an open and shut self defense case that took about a year to go to trial)
    - bena 4y ago
      I think part of the issue is the sheer scale of the problem. If I have 366 people in jail today awaiting trial and I try one case a day on average, it would be a year before you get to the last person. Yes, the problem is alleviated with more judges, more lawyers, and more juries, but that's the problem. Those resources are not infinite.
      - DubiousPusher 4y ago
        This is actually more of a funding problem than a supply problem. In many jurisdictions, the criminal justice system is expected to pay for itself, in part or nearly in total.
        ok_dad 4y ago
        If we’re talking supply and demand, reducing the supply of prosecutions for victimlesss crimes stuff like drug use and possession, reproductive decisions, and etc. might help alleviate the demand at courthouses.
  - ajmurmann 4y ago
    "tough on crime!"
mlyle 4y ago
> The Innocent Project estimates that 1% of all prisoners are innocent. It's worse than this. The Innocence Project estimates 2-10% of convictions are wrongful. But even worse, many of the people we're talking about are still awaiting trial-- presumably they are innocent at a greater rate than those convicted.
- Syonyk 4y ago
  > But even worse, we're talking about many of people who are still awaiting trial-- presumably they are innocent at a greater rate than those convicted. "Awaiting trial" or even "Awaiting details of the charges to be hammered out" seem to be depressingly time unrestricted. I sat in on some of the hearings, and there was a lot of "Well, we're not ready, can we push this out for 2 weeks?" sort of scheduling going on. The person I'm familiar with this from basically spent 2 months in jail (not prison, apparently the difference is that prison is nicer, jail is really just a holding tank) on false charges that were then dropped as they were "literally impossible." He wasn't in the state when the claimed events happened.
  - kingkawn 4y ago
    I participated in the exoneration effort for a kid who was arrested at 15 and didn’t even go to trial at all until age 19. At the trial the judge denied him the right to call expert witnesses that led to a successful appeal, and then finally after 8 years of his prime youth lost to incarceration the charges were all dropped.
  - aqme28 4y ago
    Kalief Browder. Was awaiting trial at Rikers for years before charges were eventually dropped. In total he spent over two years in solitary confinement while never being tried for the petty robbery he was falsely accused of. Killed himself when he got out.
    - dsfyu404ed 4y ago
      >Killed himself when he got out. Hopefully somewhere and in a manner inconvenient for the responsible parties...
mgurlitz 4y ago
> But of the 850 people in the jail system that the EFF is talking about here, that means at least 4 people are innocent Saying "at least 4" is pretty misleading here, since you're assuming the 0.5% is perfectly distributed. That estimate could be accurate without a single innocent in these specific 850.
- themagician 4y ago
  It's not that misleading even if the distribution is not perfect. It would be extremely unlikely that not a single person is innocent. Given that this is a jail and not a prison, these people are mostly awaiting trial. From a certain point of view (innocent until proven guilty), most of these people are innocent and they can't even get a letter.
- fitblipper 4y ago
  True, but I think that misses the point. I think the comment was an attempt at facilitating empathy for the incarcerated who are in this situation since for most people they don't see themselves as criminals (even those who are in fact criminals) and it is harder to empathize with those who you see as being part of a different tribe/group/class. The fact is that these are fellow humans who are suffering, not because we decided as a society that this was what justice means, nor because this was the result of some study that figured out this would decrease recidivism, but just because some for profit institution decided they wanted to do something that would directly result in them suffering. That is enough for me to support this lawsuit.
MomoXenosaga 4y ago
I'm white and if shit hits the fan can scrape enough money together to hire a decent lawyer. People don't "imagine if that was you" because they KNOW it would not happen to them.
- themagician 4y ago
  This is what I assume as well. But this is just an assumption I have. I don't even know exactly where it comes from. Is it correct? I just assume I can pay my way out… but what if I can't? I would think it really depends what you are accused of. I really don't know what I'd be able to afford. And it's even more bizarre to think that's just how it works.
  - landemva 4y ago
    A lot of it depends on how often the prosecutor and the judge go to social events and golfing. Most defense attorneys can not beat the corrupt system and aren't willing to risk their career for one client.
akiselev 4y ago
> "Nationwide, over 500,000 people are incarcerated in county jails like the one in Redwood City, 427,000 of whom have not been found guilty and are still awaiting trial." Apply that same 0.5% here, and that's 2,135 people. There are literally thousands of innocent people in the prison system. Thousands. A bus seats like 50 people. Imagine 40 buses full of innocent people going to jail, and that's the reality we live in. Nitpick: that's 427,000 innocent people incarcerated, not 2,135. They all deserve the presumption of innocence.
- from 4y ago
  The decision to grant bail is in part based on the strength of the evidence and the danger to the community calculation is also in part based off past convictions. Not saying that is entirely fair, but the truth is most people in jail really are guilty which is the reason voters either don't care about this issue or even want to make the system more stacked against defendants.
  - lazyasciiart 4y ago
    That’s not the truth at all. In fact, when community funds start paying bail for those who couldn’t afford it, the majority end up having the case dismissed, because there never was any evidence - there was just the threat to let them sit in jail until they plead guilty.
    - coryrc 4y ago
      That's cherry-picked results from a particular subset, also ignoring that many similar people were also released without paying any bail.
      - lazyasciiart 4y ago
        Nope. The majority of people arrested are not guilty of a crime. Those similar people who were released without paying bail are also likely to be innocent, so I don’t know how you think that opposes my point.

Swizec 4y ago

> have not been found guilty and are still awaiting trial PIMA had an interview with a sheriff recently. The figure that stood out to me was when he said it takes an average of 1.8 years for people in his jail to finally get to trial. 1.8 years in jail before they even decide if you're guilty. Hard to even imagine. https://freakonomics.com/podcast/chicagos-renegade-sheriff-wants-to-fix-law-enforcement/ https://freakonomics.com/podcast/chicagos-renegade-sheriff-w...

jamiek88 4y ago
Justice delayed is justice denied. That’s a fundamental principle of common law. This is an outrage.
- biomcgary 4y ago
  Not just common law. In the US, it is spelled out in the Bill of Rights. Unfortunately, the legal system has so distorted the plain meaning of "speedy trial" that we end up with insane, but "Constitutional" situations.
  - mydogcanpurr 4y ago
    I was going to ask what happened to the 6th amendment, but it sounds like it's in the garbage with all the others.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - throwaway_6th 4y ago
      The 6th only covers situations where you explicitly object to a delay in your speedy trial right. Often it's in the interest of the defense to delay a trial as a tactic in preventing a conviction (e.g. by introducing a defense that the victim doesn't recall exactly). Also stupid shit like the prosecution withholding or delaying evidence that would tend to exonerate the defendant happens. What tends to happen is that the prosecution and the defendants lawyer agree to continuance after continuance. (Source: been there done that, had an open and shut self defense case that took about a year to go to trial)
  - bena 4y ago
    I think part of the issue is the sheer scale of the problem. If I have 366 people in jail today awaiting trial and I try one case a day on average, it would be a year before you get to the last person. Yes, the problem is alleviated with more judges, more lawyers, and more juries, but that's the problem. Those resources are not infinite.
    - DubiousPusher 4y ago
      This is actually more of a funding problem than a supply problem. In many jurisdictions, the criminal justice system is expected to pay for itself, in part or nearly in total.
      - ok_dad 4y ago
        If we’re talking supply and demand, reducing the supply of prosecutions for victimlesss crimes stuff like drug use and possession, reproductive decisions, and etc. might help alleviate the demand at courthouses.
- ajmurmann 4y ago
  "tough on crime!"

mlyle 4y ago

> The Innocent Project estimates that 1% of all prisoners are innocent. It's worse than this. The Innocence Project estimates 2-10% of convictions are wrongful. But even worse, many of the people we're talking about are still awaiting trial-- presumably they are innocent at a greater rate than those convicted.

Syonyk 4y ago
> But even worse, we're talking about many of people who are still awaiting trial-- presumably they are innocent at a greater rate than those convicted. "Awaiting trial" or even "Awaiting details of the charges to be hammered out" seem to be depressingly time unrestricted. I sat in on some of the hearings, and there was a lot of "Well, we're not ready, can we push this out for 2 weeks?" sort of scheduling going on. The person I'm familiar with this from basically spent 2 months in jail (not prison, apparently the difference is that prison is nicer, jail is really just a holding tank) on false charges that were then dropped as they were "literally impossible." He wasn't in the state when the claimed events happened.
- kingkawn 4y ago
  I participated in the exoneration effort for a kid who was arrested at 15 and didn’t even go to trial at all until age 19. At the trial the judge denied him the right to call expert witnesses that led to a successful appeal, and then finally after 8 years of his prime youth lost to incarceration the charges were all dropped.
- aqme28 4y ago
  Kalief Browder. Was awaiting trial at Rikers for years before charges were eventually dropped. In total he spent over two years in solitary confinement while never being tried for the petty robbery he was falsely accused of. Killed himself when he got out.
  - dsfyu404ed 4y ago
    >Killed himself when he got out. Hopefully somewhere and in a manner inconvenient for the responsible parties...

mgurlitz 4y ago

> But of the 850 people in the jail system that the EFF is talking about here, that means at least 4 people are innocent Saying "at least 4" is pretty misleading here, since you're assuming the 0.5% is perfectly distributed. That estimate could be accurate without a single innocent in these specific 850.

themagician 4y ago
It's not that misleading even if the distribution is not perfect. It would be extremely unlikely that not a single person is innocent. Given that this is a jail and not a prison, these people are mostly awaiting trial. From a certain point of view (innocent until proven guilty), most of these people are innocent and they can't even get a letter.
fitblipper 4y ago
True, but I think that misses the point. I think the comment was an attempt at facilitating empathy for the incarcerated who are in this situation since for most people they don't see themselves as criminals (even those who are in fact criminals) and it is harder to empathize with those who you see as being part of a different tribe/group/class. The fact is that these are fellow humans who are suffering, not because we decided as a society that this was what justice means, nor because this was the result of some study that figured out this would decrease recidivism, but just because some for profit institution decided they wanted to do something that would directly result in them suffering. That is enough for me to support this lawsuit.

MomoXenosaga 4y ago

I'm white and if shit hits the fan can scrape enough money together to hire a decent lawyer. People don't "imagine if that was you" because they KNOW it would not happen to them.

themagician 4y ago
This is what I assume as well. But this is just an assumption I have. I don't even know exactly where it comes from. Is it correct? I just assume I can pay my way out… but what if I can't? I would think it really depends what you are accused of. I really don't know what I'd be able to afford. And it's even more bizarre to think that's just how it works.
- landemva 4y ago
  A lot of it depends on how often the prosecutor and the judge go to social events and golfing. Most defense attorneys can not beat the corrupt system and aren't willing to risk their career for one client.

akiselev 4y ago

> "Nationwide, over 500,000 people are incarcerated in county jails like the one in Redwood City, 427,000 of whom have not been found guilty and are still awaiting trial." Apply that same 0.5% here, and that's 2,135 people. There are literally thousands of innocent people in the prison system. Thousands. A bus seats like 50 people. Imagine 40 buses full of innocent people going to jail, and that's the reality we live in. Nitpick: that's 427,000 innocent people incarcerated, not 2,135. They all deserve the presumption of innocence.

from 4y ago
The decision to grant bail is in part based on the strength of the evidence and the danger to the community calculation is also in part based off past convictions. Not saying that is entirely fair, but the truth is most people in jail really are guilty which is the reason voters either don't care about this issue or even want to make the system more stacked against defendants.
- lazyasciiart 4y ago
  That’s not the truth at all. In fact, when community funds start paying bail for those who couldn’t afford it, the majority end up having the case dismissed, because there never was any evidence - there was just the threat to let them sit in jail until they plead guilty.
  - coryrc 4y ago
    That's cherry-picked results from a particular subset, also ignoring that many similar people were also released without paying any bail.
    - lazyasciiart 4y ago
      Nope. The majority of people arrested are not guilty of a crime. Those similar people who were released without paying bail are also likely to be innocent, so I don’t know how you think that opposes my point.