3 ms·

The public perception of a decline in American manufacturing is highly overrated. It's American manufacturing jobs that have been in decline. American manufactu

The public perception of a decline in American manufacturing is highly overrated. It's American manufacturing jobs that have been in decline. American manufacturing itself has grown every year from 1970 to 2010 with three exceptions (2001, 2008 and 2009, recession years). (cf. also http://goo.gl/ZA1o2 http://goo.gl/ZA1o2 - for the historical stats; the opinion parts and any policy recommendations you can take or leave.)

learc83 15y ago
Exactly, it's not foreign workers that have taken all the blue collar manufacturing jobs, it's robots. Everyone seems to be worried about China becoming the manufacturer for the world, but as technology progresses manufacturing will move closer to the consumer.
- tmh88j 15y ago
  I'm an engineer in the manufacturing sector and there is quite a bit of automation at the company I work for. Where there are robots, PLC's, and other things that can be programmed there will ALWAYS be problems that need both high tech people and blue-collar level involved. Engineers write the software, technicians repair them and workers operate them. I don't get why people have this notion that factories are comprised entirely of robots running at 100% efficiency with 5 people overseeing what used to be 1000 jobs. A robot may take someone's job and be able to perform the same amount as 3 people, but it's not like they're free-standing things that require no maintenance or other human interaction. In many instances it's just not feasible to have a robot perform the work.
  - learc83 15y ago
    I agree with you on your point about robotic manufacturing still requiring people, but I don't think you can say we will always need blue collar workers in factories. Even without strong AI we will there's no reason to assume that robots won't take over practically all blue collar work at some point. I can't say how far into the future that will be, but I can't see any reason to think it won't happen eventually (short of some kind of mass extinction/new dark age/robot apocalypse scenario).
  - yardie 15y ago
    A major car manufacturer, BMW or Toyota I believe, was showing their new factory and touting how it only required 50 people to run operations for the entire factory. You underestimate the amount of labor a robot can replace. It's not 3 people but 10. Now some of that labor will be pushed up to control and maintenance but most will simply be phased out. As well, new factories are being built around robots and their limited degrees of freedom.
    - tmh88j 15y ago
      There aren't too many manufacturing facilities in the US of that size that are automated to the extent you mentioned. There are many situations where it's nearly impossible to have a robot do the job such as installing wiring harnesses, installing hardware in very tight, awkward spaces, etc..(when I say impossible I mean it would cost more to develop that job than the income it generates). I've seen many cases where a human can do the job faster than a robot too. Sure, improving object design can improve manufacturability, but robots are not going to replace people entirely anytime soon in every type of manufacturing.
- cameldrv 15y ago
  It's both, and that's the problem. The average worker is getting beaten up by automation, offshore manufacturing, and automation, all at once. It's not really surprising that wages aren't increasing under these circumstances.

learc83 15y ago

Exactly, it's not foreign workers that have taken all the blue collar manufacturing jobs, it's robots. Everyone seems to be worried about China becoming the manufacturer for the world, but as technology progresses manufacturing will move closer to the consumer.

tmh88j 15y ago
I'm an engineer in the manufacturing sector and there is quite a bit of automation at the company I work for. Where there are robots, PLC's, and other things that can be programmed there will ALWAYS be problems that need both high tech people and blue-collar level involved. Engineers write the software, technicians repair them and workers operate them. I don't get why people have this notion that factories are comprised entirely of robots running at 100% efficiency with 5 people overseeing what used to be 1000 jobs. A robot may take someone's job and be able to perform the same amount as 3 people, but it's not like they're free-standing things that require no maintenance or other human interaction. In many instances it's just not feasible to have a robot perform the work.
- learc83 15y ago
  I agree with you on your point about robotic manufacturing still requiring people, but I don't think you can say we will always need blue collar workers in factories. Even without strong AI we will there's no reason to assume that robots won't take over practically all blue collar work at some point. I can't say how far into the future that will be, but I can't see any reason to think it won't happen eventually (short of some kind of mass extinction/new dark age/robot apocalypse scenario).
- yardie 15y ago
  A major car manufacturer, BMW or Toyota I believe, was showing their new factory and touting how it only required 50 people to run operations for the entire factory. You underestimate the amount of labor a robot can replace. It's not 3 people but 10. Now some of that labor will be pushed up to control and maintenance but most will simply be phased out. As well, new factories are being built around robots and their limited degrees of freedom.
  - tmh88j 15y ago
    There aren't too many manufacturing facilities in the US of that size that are automated to the extent you mentioned. There are many situations where it's nearly impossible to have a robot do the job such as installing wiring harnesses, installing hardware in very tight, awkward spaces, etc..(when I say impossible I mean it would cost more to develop that job than the income it generates). I've seen many cases where a human can do the job faster than a robot too. Sure, improving object design can improve manufacturability, but robots are not going to replace people entirely anytime soon in every type of manufacturing.
cameldrv 15y ago
It's both, and that's the problem. The average worker is getting beaten up by automation, offshore manufacturing, and automation, all at once. It's not really surprising that wages aren't increasing under these circumstances.