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If the signal-to-noise ratio is so low, why even care about the "prediction business"? It's worse than nothing, the noise is too high to be of any value...
by piva00 4y ago
If the signal-to-noise ratio is so low, why even care about the "prediction business"? It's worse than nothing, the noise is too high to be of any value...
- syzarian 4y agoYes, but that hasn’t been established in the case of Cramer. That is, it hasn’t been shown that he is worse than other knowledgeable people. People need to be in the prediction business because it is prudent to try to plan for foreseeable outcomes or likely outcomes whilst knowing that things are always murky and the prediction can be wrong.
- piva00 4y agoIsn't that the problem? If he's the best we can get in the prediction business there's simply no value in that business, the noise is too high to any signal to be of value. I'd like to see examples of me being wrong, where Cramer got predictions right and better than other actors in this "prediction business"...
- syzarian 4y agoI don’t know about him but the argument that he sucks because of the examples given is not valid reasoning. How do you know he is so bad? You made a claim that if he is the best then there is no value in that business. Do you have more than the two examples given?