3 ms·

2040? 2050? Which problem are we solving?

by Gwypaas 4y ago

melling 4y ago
From the SAME sentence: “suggested that some might enter commercial operation before 2030”
- Gwypaas 4y ago
  Why did you skip half the sentance? > The first commercial plants are not expected before 2040–2050,[3] although the World Nuclear Association in 2015 suggested that some might enter commercial operation before 2030.[4] An optimistic 2030 from 8 years ago, with about zero progress to date.
  - PaulHoule 4y ago
    The US shouldn't have shut down the FFTF. Had we not shut down advanced reactor development we could be 15-20 years ahead of where we are. Talk about Gen 4 reactors started around 2000, test reactors and development projects for Gen 4 reactors are going into high gear. https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Chinese-molten-salt-reactor-cleared-for-start-up https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Chinese-molten-s... It would be nice if these were coming online in the next 10 years but don't think our need for energy suddenly expires in 2030 or that we'll be completely happy with renewables by 2040.
    - Andrex 4y ago
      We'd be 15-20 years further down a dead-end, possibly.
  - melling 4y ago
    I skipped it because you mentioned that part. I was merely trying to complete it. The United States went to the moon in 8 years. Where does “zero progress” come from? The same article lists projects. We’ve all heard of TerraPower, for example? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TerraPower https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TerraPower
    - nl 4y ago
      I read the World Nuclear Association's "Small Reactor Dashboard"[1] (worst dashboard ever: it's 70+ page embedded PDF). There's only one 4th generation nuclear reactor actually producing power anywhere that I could find on the list, the HTR-PM in China which was connected to the grid in 2022. Terrapower is one of many companies that have some funding but nothing produced. To quote the Wikipedia link you posted: > [in 2022] DOE gave TerraPower cost-share funding through the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) to test, license and build an advanced reactor within seven years. Let's see where they are in 7 years... [1] https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_78743/the-nea-small-modular-reactor-dashboard https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_78743/the-nea-small-modular... [2] https://www.powermag.com/china-starts-up-first-fourth-generation-nuclear-reactor/ https://www.powermag.com/china-starts-up-first-fourth-genera...
    - m463 4y ago
      8 years is probably the maximum length of time a project can live, given the political cycle. I had a friend who worked in nuclear, and progress was dictated by changes in washington every 4 or sometimes 8 years.

2040? 2050? Which problem are we solving?

melling 4y ago

From the SAME sentence: “suggested that some might enter commercial operation before 2030”

Gwypaas 4y ago
Why did you skip half the sentance? > The first commercial plants are not expected before 2040–2050,[3] although the World Nuclear Association in 2015 suggested that some might enter commercial operation before 2030.[4] An optimistic 2030 from 8 years ago, with about zero progress to date.
- PaulHoule 4y ago
  The US shouldn't have shut down the FFTF. Had we not shut down advanced reactor development we could be 15-20 years ahead of where we are. Talk about Gen 4 reactors started around 2000, test reactors and development projects for Gen 4 reactors are going into high gear. https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Chinese-molten-salt-reactor-cleared-for-start-up https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Chinese-molten-s... It would be nice if these were coming online in the next 10 years but don't think our need for energy suddenly expires in 2030 or that we'll be completely happy with renewables by 2040.
  - Andrex 4y ago
    We'd be 15-20 years further down a dead-end, possibly.
- melling 4y ago
  I skipped it because you mentioned that part. I was merely trying to complete it. The United States went to the moon in 8 years. Where does “zero progress” come from? The same article lists projects. We’ve all heard of TerraPower, for example? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TerraPower https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TerraPower
  - nl 4y ago
    I read the World Nuclear Association's "Small Reactor Dashboard"[1] (worst dashboard ever: it's 70+ page embedded PDF). There's only one 4th generation nuclear reactor actually producing power anywhere that I could find on the list, the HTR-PM in China which was connected to the grid in 2022. Terrapower is one of many companies that have some funding but nothing produced. To quote the Wikipedia link you posted: > [in 2022] DOE gave TerraPower cost-share funding through the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) to test, license and build an advanced reactor within seven years. Let's see where they are in 7 years... [1] https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_78743/the-nea-small-modular-reactor-dashboard https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_78743/the-nea-small-modular... [2] https://www.powermag.com/china-starts-up-first-fourth-generation-nuclear-reactor/ https://www.powermag.com/china-starts-up-first-fourth-genera...
  - m463 4y ago
    8 years is probably the maximum length of time a project can live, given the political cycle. I had a friend who worked in nuclear, and progress was dictated by changes in washington every 4 or sometimes 8 years.