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My prediction: this is going to replace a lot of "lower tier" jobs quite quickly. It'll also obliviate the need for a lot of outsourced knowledge workers. That

My prediction: this is going to replace a lot of "lower tier" jobs quite quickly. It'll also obliviate the need for a lot of outsourced knowledge workers. That said, I remain skeptical about how truly useful LLMs will be. Even with the latest GPT4 they still suffer from the same fundamental flaws as any LLM: being confidently wrong in a nuanced way. Nor do they understand mathematics, etc. I think narrowly scoped work (tightly scoped software developer work, data entry, transcription, etc.) is likely ripe for replacement. The problem is I totally see them exacerbating income inequality significantly as a result. It's going to cause serious conversations about when this technology can be used and conversations about protectionism and worker rights will suddenly have more mainstream appeal.

pixl97 4y ago
>Nor do they understand mathematics Eh, you might be looking too closely at GPT-3/4 and not some of the splitoff models that are trained around math itself. They seem to have much higher success rates than pure language models, and because we have success there already, I don't see it being a long term issue before it's incorporated into something like gpt-5.
- alfalfasprout 4y ago
  I've been following the work on MathPrompter (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.05398.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.05398.pdf) for example. These approaches certainly increase the quality of basic results but without a true semantic model of mathematics we're a looooooong way from replacing a computer algebra system.
  - keskival 4y ago
    All the language models are able to use tools such as Python or theorem provers. They don't need to do calculations "in their head".
HDThoreaun 4y ago
GPT4 got 5s on the ap calc tests. ChatGPT was getting 1s. Won't be long until LLMs are doing upper level undergrad math.
intelVISA 4y ago
I fear similar, tech work will regress back to the domain of being led by those wealthy enough to be credentialled. Arguably the two month React bootcamp to $200k web dev pipeline was kinda trite, as well, but I much prefer the social mobility it offers than CS jobs being limited to a small subset of those rich or studious enough to hack through Galois theory.
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pixl97 4y ago

>Nor do they understand mathematics Eh, you might be looking too closely at GPT-3/4 and not some of the splitoff models that are trained around math itself. They seem to have much higher success rates than pure language models, and because we have success there already, I don't see it being a long term issue before it's incorporated into something like gpt-5.

alfalfasprout 4y ago
I've been following the work on MathPrompter (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.05398.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.05398.pdf) for example. These approaches certainly increase the quality of basic results but without a true semantic model of mathematics we're a looooooong way from replacing a computer algebra system.
- keskival 4y ago
  All the language models are able to use tools such as Python or theorem provers. They don't need to do calculations "in their head".

HDThoreaun 4y ago

GPT4 got 5s on the ap calc tests. ChatGPT was getting 1s. Won't be long until LLMs are doing upper level undergrad math.

intelVISA 4y ago

I fear similar, tech work will regress back to the domain of being led by those wealthy enough to be credentialled. Arguably the two month React bootcamp to $200k web dev pipeline was kinda trite, as well, but I much prefer the social mobility it offers than CS jobs being limited to a small subset of those rich or studious enough to hack through Galois theory.

deleted 4y ago

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