6 ms·

We'll never have a modern train infrastructure in this country at that rate. How does it cost so much?

cassac 4y ago
At 35 billion, you could buy 700k teslas, and then just let everyone drive themselves. It’s probably because the bribes are compounding at each level.
- guelo 4y ago
  The roads for 700k teslas to drive on aren't free.
  - jeffbee 4y ago
    Also 700k Tesla aren't enough for 40 million people. This math seems easy to me.
    - cassac 4y ago
      It’s a ride share service, so you rent it one way, with the expectation it goes each way per day. So that’s 700k * 2 trips * 365 days = 511 million rides annually. Even more if people bring passengers.
    - cassac 4y ago
      But… maybe you are right? Maybe they give everyone in the state a bike and then just make a 1 billion dollar bike path?
      - maximus-decimus 4y ago
        There's a joke Canadian political party that proposed decades ago to build a giant sloped bike path across the country so you could "coast from coast to coast". I wonder how much that would actually cost.
    - randyrand 4y ago
      neither is a single train line.
  - cassac 4y ago
    No, but the roads are already budgeted to be maintained. Also the expected ridership is I assume to be composed of, at least partially, people who are already using the roads. I just found it funny as a number because 35 bil is such a ridiculous amount for a 171 mile train.
    - asdff 4y ago
      If you think thats high, second avenue subway extension in nyc is looking to spend 6 billion to extend 1.5 miles.
    - Bluestrike2 4y ago
      For what it's worth, roads clearly aren't budgeted to be maintained. At best, some of them are, with the interstate system more likely to be better maintained than other types of roads. The American Society of Civil Engineers annual report card reports that over 43% of our existing road system is in either poor or mediocre condition as of 2021, and an over $435 billion backlog for repairing existing roads and $125 billion for bridge repairs.[0] Worse yet, as existing infrastructure reaches its planned lifespans, we have to dump more money into repairing, extending, and replacing it. Adding more cars only makes the existing challenges worse, and accelerates infrastructure aging due to increased wear-and-tear. Those added cars also means increased congestion, and we have decades of solid empirical evidence to show that increasing capacity through road widening only creates induced demand. You literally cannot build your way out of congestion. The mess that defines California's HSR project is an international embarrassment. We need to fix the legal and institutional roadblocks that have helped its costs balloon and schedule disintegrate, because the alternatives are terrible. 0. https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/roads-infrastructure/ https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/roads-infrastr...
  - Fatnino 4y ago
    You could take those 700k tesla, and just lay them out 12 wide and 171miles long... Based on a model y being 187"
midoridensha 4y ago
Not sure, but here in Japan, they're spending USD$67.3k per foot (290km at USD$64B according to the latest news report I could find which reported a big cost overrun) for the new Chuo Shinkansen bullet train line between Tokyo and Nagoya. However, there's some big differences: this new line is going to be a 500km/h maglev line with a ~50-minute travel time, not a normal rail line like California's, and 90% of it is underground since there's a bunch of mountains in the way. Somehow, America these days always manages to spend absurd amounts of money on infrastructure, far more than peer nations. Another big factor is profitability: will California's system actually pay for itself? The shinkansen bullet trains in Japan are profitable, and have been for a long time. During a normal day, one train leaves Tokyo station every few minutes on the Tokaido line towards Nagoya and Osaka. So while the new maglev train looks horrifically expensive for initial costs, with the huge ridership the existing trains already have, it's a very sound investment and is sure to be profitable before too long because Japanese are used to taking trains for traveling between cities. I can't say the same for Americans, especially when this California line is taking some long, meandering route to a bunch of unimportant towns instead of just going straight from LA to SanFran like it should, which means it won't even be that fast.
- twelve40 4y ago
  It's not even going from LA to SanFran anymore, they sort of quietly abandoned this part, for now at least. Which adds a whole new layer of absurdity to this endeavor.

At 35 billion, you could buy 700k teslas, and then just let everyone drive themselves. It’s probably because the bribes are compounding at each level.

guelo 4y ago
The roads for 700k teslas to drive on aren't free.
- jeffbee 4y ago
  Also 700k Tesla aren't enough for 40 million people. This math seems easy to me.
  - cassac 4y ago
    It’s a ride share service, so you rent it one way, with the expectation it goes each way per day. So that’s 700k * 2 trips * 365 days = 511 million rides annually. Even more if people bring passengers.
  - cassac 4y ago
    But… maybe you are right? Maybe they give everyone in the state a bike and then just make a 1 billion dollar bike path?
    - maximus-decimus 4y ago
      There's a joke Canadian political party that proposed decades ago to build a giant sloped bike path across the country so you could "coast from coast to coast". I wonder how much that would actually cost.
  - randyrand 4y ago
    neither is a single train line.
- cassac 4y ago
  No, but the roads are already budgeted to be maintained. Also the expected ridership is I assume to be composed of, at least partially, people who are already using the roads. I just found it funny as a number because 35 bil is such a ridiculous amount for a 171 mile train.
  - asdff 4y ago
    If you think thats high, second avenue subway extension in nyc is looking to spend 6 billion to extend 1.5 miles.
  - Bluestrike2 4y ago
    For what it's worth, roads clearly aren't budgeted to be maintained. At best, some of them are, with the interstate system more likely to be better maintained than other types of roads. The American Society of Civil Engineers annual report card reports that over 43% of our existing road system is in either poor or mediocre condition as of 2021, and an over $435 billion backlog for repairing existing roads and $125 billion for bridge repairs.[0] Worse yet, as existing infrastructure reaches its planned lifespans, we have to dump more money into repairing, extending, and replacing it. Adding more cars only makes the existing challenges worse, and accelerates infrastructure aging due to increased wear-and-tear. Those added cars also means increased congestion, and we have decades of solid empirical evidence to show that increasing capacity through road widening only creates induced demand. You literally cannot build your way out of congestion. The mess that defines California's HSR project is an international embarrassment. We need to fix the legal and institutional roadblocks that have helped its costs balloon and schedule disintegrate, because the alternatives are terrible. 0. https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/roads-infrastructure/ https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/roads-infrastr...
- Fatnino 4y ago
  You could take those 700k tesla, and just lay them out 12 wide and 171miles long... Based on a model y being 187"

midoridensha 4y ago

Not sure, but here in Japan, they're spending USD$67.3k per foot (290km at USD$64B according to the latest news report I could find which reported a big cost overrun) for the new Chuo Shinkansen bullet train line between Tokyo and Nagoya. However, there's some big differences: this new line is going to be a 500km/h maglev line with a ~50-minute travel time, not a normal rail line like California's, and 90% of it is underground since there's a bunch of mountains in the way. Somehow, America these days always manages to spend absurd amounts of money on infrastructure, far more than peer nations. Another big factor is profitability: will California's system actually pay for itself? The shinkansen bullet trains in Japan are profitable, and have been for a long time. During a normal day, one train leaves Tokyo station every few minutes on the Tokaido line towards Nagoya and Osaka. So while the new maglev train looks horrifically expensive for initial costs, with the huge ridership the existing trains already have, it's a very sound investment and is sure to be profitable before too long because Japanese are used to taking trains for traveling between cities. I can't say the same for Americans, especially when this California line is taking some long, meandering route to a bunch of unimportant towns instead of just going straight from LA to SanFran like it should, which means it won't even be that fast.

twelve40 4y ago
It's not even going from LA to SanFran anymore, they sort of quietly abandoned this part, for now at least. Which adds a whole new layer of absurdity to this endeavor.