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We are not forcing Putin into anything. He has already long time ago made up his mind that US and the West will become his enemy. The only way we actually can

• A4ET8a8uTh0 4y ago
  << We are not forcing Putin into anything. Hmm, how so? I don't know about you, but if I was in his position I would be seeking allies that have a beef with US and, surprise, this is exactly what he did. So yeah, if he wants to survive politically ( and otherwise ) he is effectively forced by US ( and the generated coalition -- and we can discuss how willingly they went along to do that ) to seek those out. What I would not do is roll over as a practical measure to keep my life ( based on still fairly recent history ), where there is a clear path to perceived completion of a goal. So yeah. US is forcing Putin's hand in choosing allies ( and we could argue to what extent Orange Revolution changed his calculus ). Now, we could talk about what that means in practice, but I assure you the logical conclusions are even worse, because it does mean undermining Russia's new bestest friends or at least making their lives difficult. Regardless, that statement is factually plain wrong. << He has already long time ago made up his mind that US and the West will become his enemy. Eh. No. If he did make up his mind, it was about 're-uniting' Russia. Where he miscalculated was that US would care (1) and (2) be able to convince Germany ( and other less willing allies ) to actually go along with attempt at alienate Russia on the global stage. << The only way we actually can win him over is by beating him decisively and fast. Eh again. This is the same argumentation I saw leading to Iraq, Afghanistan ( recent examples only ) and now, surprise, Russia. I mean, it is a great plan if you can make it work, but what, exactly are you proposing here? I don't want to put words in your mouth. << Yes, that is the paradox of Russian mindset. I don't want to assume again, so I would love to hear a little more than a sentence on this. I am familiar with this sentiment, but it is generously applied to just about any enemy of US ( and its variants also helpfully include ">they< only respect strength ( they referencing current enemy)" ). << There is another way. An idea should creep into the minds of common Russians how Chinese will come and eff them over. This is not a shot, but "should" is likely not a great political or rhetorical tool. I would personally recommend trying to place yourself in Russians position geopolitically. Right now, China is an allied power that is actively helping Russia, where US and western powers are actively working against it. The moment you do, you will understand that your suggestion, while it sounds reasonable in US, has a low penetration rate in Russia.. suggesting that this opinion that is intended for US's market of ideas.. << This is not impossible considering their commonly heavily xenophobic mindset and their current experience in far east Siberia where Chinese just pour in in millions. I will admit that don't know them both as well to offer a definitive statement here.
  • genman 4y ago
    Saying that we are forcing Putin to do anything is like saying that resisting to rape is forcing rapist to used more violence. The rapist already had a plan. There is actually a joke going on about all these "peace initiatives". The police officer is arriving to the crime scene and sees a rape in progress and says: Stop it! Both of you, stop it! It's nonsense. Nobody is forcing Putin to do anything he has not already planned to do. The fact that he only has few logical steps available does not mean that we are forcing him to make those - it's still up to him. He can actually stop this war right away. Nobody is forcing him to continue. Yes, he made up his mind already in 2007 the latest and yes, he miscalculated Russian army's ability to conduct military operations successfully. Thinking that somehow the West will accept his attempt to occupy other nations again is a grand delusion. But make no mistake - the "rotten West" has been the enemy figure for long time, the narrative that NATO is somehow surrounding Russia has been going on for long time. He chose to oppose the West, not to be friend with it. He did it very visibly. I saw the war coming already in 2009, when he started to rehabilitate Stalin in public. The war hysteria has been growing in Russia since then very rapidly. How to make Ukraine win decisively and fast? Just stop this half-assed support and start giving serious aid the Western economies should be capable of. It is the lack of Western will power that helps Putin to continue this war - he perceives that the West is still weak and he can win eventually. This war is fundamentally different from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan - we don't have to occupy Russia. This paradox is a street level wisdom from many people who have actual experience with Russians: if you are attacked, you have to attack back fiercely. If you don't, you are not respected (more precisely, you are disrespected and considered weak and exploitable), if you do, you are, if you win, they might very likely consider you as their friend. You can understand a Russians better when you think them as common white supremacist. Jews are bad, the West is bad because it is weak (lets immigrants, blacks in), and of course Chinese are bad because they are Chinese. Geopolitically Russia will be no super power, so it has to align with the West or with China. China doesn't see Russia as a partner, but as an exploitable token that can be used against the West. It has been always in the interest of Russia to align with the West where it has chance to be taken as an equal partner (mind you equal to other countries, not superior). Of course at the moment they must to a lot self reflection to get there but it's possible.