I think there two questions. The first is whether the current generation of AI is capable of writing finished software based on an end user's natural language

I think there two questions. The first is whether the current generation of AI is capable of writing finished software based on an end user's natural language specification. I think the answer to that is no. There are too many loose ends and these AIs are not good enough at logical inference and root cause analysis, especially when the logic is extralingual. The second question is whether these AIs can make developers more productive so that fewer developers are going to find employment. I'm not sure. Yes they will make us more productive, but the demand for developers may well outstrip the added supply. If something gets cheaper, people tend to use more of it.