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Does the AI know your product? Does the AI know your database? Does the AI know your design, device, legal and other constraints? No, and won't for any fores

Does the AI know your product? Does the AI know your database? Does the AI know your design, device, legal and other constraints? No, and won't for any foreseeable future.

whoomp12342 4y ago
todays generation of AI yes. I worry about an AI that will LEARN your product and LEARN your database and LEARN your tribal knowledge. As a similie, I fear we are like a horse, in the era of Henry T. Ford. On the other hand. Someone still needs to interact with ChatGPT or the likes. Someone needs to keep an eye on quality control. Someone needs to ASK chatgpt TO write the code. Its like programming on yet an even higher level. I just worry that, with that increased efficiency there wont be troves of teams writing code like today. On the foot, chatgpt doesnt write perfect code and can introduce complex bugs that only the best of the best will be able to decipher, so there is that. On the other foot, when you look at what joomla,wordpress,squarespace did to website design it is a very similar trajectory. There will always be niches
- illiarian 4y ago
  > todays generation of AI yes. No. They have no idea what my codebase it, how to translate concepts like "audio is limited to users on free tier" into code etc. > I worry about an AI that will LEARN your product and LEARN your database and LEARN your tribal knowledge. It won't, not for any foreseeable future. It fails consistently even at the most simple of tasks. If you're afraid that you will be made relevant because we will be able to teach it those simple tasks? > when you look at what joomla,wordpress,squarespace did to website design it is a very similar trajectory. What did they do? Did they make you obsolete?
- sethammons 4y ago
  If an AI can "rationalize" your product, know your database, know your design, legal, and other constraints, at that point, what employment role is not at risk? You wouldn't need project or product managers or designers. Heck, at that point, you don't need accountants either. Maybe you have a team that supervises the AI - but, really, you could have an AI do that. So you have the business owner(s) and zero employees. No more tech companies as everything can be done by AI, including CEO work. What I actually expect: better tooling. We were not replaced when we went from punch cards to C - it just increased demand for programmers. AI may be the next tooling, but I only see more opportunity: solutions happening faster.
cousin_it 4y ago
The foreseeable future is quite short though, and getting shorter. You didn't predict the success of LLMs even a year before they hit the mainstream. Right now you can't predict the next big AI thing, what it'll do and when. To me the future stops being "foreseeable" and becomes very foggy (which jobs still exist and so on) a few years from now at the longest.
- illiarian 4y ago
  > The foreseeable future is quite short though, and getting shorter. Not really. The answers for my questions are as far away now as they were 15 years ago.
jstummbillig 4y ago
To approximate the validity of this statement, you can ask yourself "What was the earliest time, when I expected AI to be where it is today?"
- illiarian 4y ago
  You're assuming that every single year you're going to have major leaps in this tech. And that in any foreseeable future the leap will be such that an AI will be useful enough to answer those questions.
  - jstummbillig 4y ago
    I am assuming neither, and while interpreting the present is hard, correctly projecting into the future is a lot harder.
PeterisP 4y ago
The junior programmer we would hire doesn't know any of that as well, they have to get all of that from someone else on the team - so perhaps that job can be replaced by us giving all of that info to some cheap computer instead of a relatively expensive person, as even junior programmers cost quite a lot.

Does the AI know your product? Does the AI know your database? Does the AI know your design, device, legal and other constraints? No, and won't for any foreseeable future.

whoomp12342 4y ago

todays generation of AI yes. I worry about an AI that will LEARN your product and LEARN your database and LEARN your tribal knowledge. As a similie, I fear we are like a horse, in the era of Henry T. Ford. On the other hand. Someone still needs to interact with ChatGPT or the likes. Someone needs to keep an eye on quality control. Someone needs to ASK chatgpt TO write the code. Its like programming on yet an even higher level. I just worry that, with that increased efficiency there wont be troves of teams writing code like today. On the foot, chatgpt doesnt write perfect code and can introduce complex bugs that only the best of the best will be able to decipher, so there is that. On the other foot, when you look at what joomla,wordpress,squarespace did to website design it is a very similar trajectory. There will always be niches

illiarian 4y ago
> todays generation of AI yes. No. They have no idea what my codebase it, how to translate concepts like "audio is limited to users on free tier" into code etc. > I worry about an AI that will LEARN your product and LEARN your database and LEARN your tribal knowledge. It won't, not for any foreseeable future. It fails consistently even at the most simple of tasks. If you're afraid that you will be made relevant because we will be able to teach it those simple tasks? > when you look at what joomla,wordpress,squarespace did to website design it is a very similar trajectory. What did they do? Did they make you obsolete?
sethammons 4y ago
If an AI can "rationalize" your product, know your database, know your design, legal, and other constraints, at that point, what employment role is not at risk? You wouldn't need project or product managers or designers. Heck, at that point, you don't need accountants either. Maybe you have a team that supervises the AI - but, really, you could have an AI do that. So you have the business owner(s) and zero employees. No more tech companies as everything can be done by AI, including CEO work. What I actually expect: better tooling. We were not replaced when we went from punch cards to C - it just increased demand for programmers. AI may be the next tooling, but I only see more opportunity: solutions happening faster.

cousin_it 4y ago

The foreseeable future is quite short though, and getting shorter. You didn't predict the success of LLMs even a year before they hit the mainstream. Right now you can't predict the next big AI thing, what it'll do and when. To me the future stops being "foreseeable" and becomes very foggy (which jobs still exist and so on) a few years from now at the longest.

illiarian 4y ago
> The foreseeable future is quite short though, and getting shorter. Not really. The answers for my questions are as far away now as they were 15 years ago.

jstummbillig 4y ago

To approximate the validity of this statement, you can ask yourself "What was the earliest time, when I expected AI to be where it is today?"

illiarian 4y ago
You're assuming that every single year you're going to have major leaps in this tech. And that in any foreseeable future the leap will be such that an AI will be useful enough to answer those questions.
- jstummbillig 4y ago
  I am assuming neither, and while interpreting the present is hard, correctly projecting into the future is a lot harder.

PeterisP 4y ago

The junior programmer we would hire doesn't know any of that as well, they have to get all of that from someone else on the team - so perhaps that job can be replaced by us giving all of that info to some cheap computer instead of a relatively expensive person, as even junior programmers cost quite a lot.