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There's actually an easier way to remove the subtleties of this statistical problem by using a hyperbolic example. For kicks and shiggles we'll up the stakes to
by mojomark 4y ago
There's actually an easier way to remove the subtleties of this statistical problem by using a hyperbolic example. For kicks and shiggles we'll up the stakes to be a prize of $1B USD.
Consider instead a Monte Hall scenario with 100 boxes (vice just 3), maybe we call this the "deal or no deal" variant of the problem...
The user picks 1 box and has a 1/100 chance of selecting the box with the prize. Now, the host opens 98 boxes that they know do not have keys in them, leaving two unopened boxes (the one the user picked and the one the host left unopened).
Now, pick your box from the remaining selection and claim your prize. You bet your sweet bippy I know which box I'm picking.
Information is gained by observing the winnowing of the field of options.
- basch 4y agoI don't see how "would you like 1/3rd odds or 2/3rd odds of winning" is less easy to understand that adding more numbers and layers to the problem by adding in words like $1Billion and 100 boxes. If someone is willing to pick 1/3rds odds of winning, the discussion needs to go somewhere else.