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I love the Monty Hall problem because it's so unintuitive that even Paul Erdos struggled to believe it for a while. > Vazsonyi ran the program 100,000 times. E
by v64 4y ago
I love the Monty Hall problem because it's so unintuitive that even Paul Erdos struggled to believe it for a while.
> Vazsonyi ran the program 100,000 times. Erdos watched the results of the simulation. The simulation results indicated that by switching, the odds of winning are indeed two out of three. Finally, he was grudgingly convinced that switching was better. He did not like it but seeing was believing. He could not argue with the results.
Apparently he later called Ronald Graham and explained to him that he finally heard a proof of the problem that made perfect sense to him, which he explained to Graham. Graham said he didn't understand the proof at all, but was happy Erdos understood where he had been mistaken.
- celeritascelery 4y agoThat was how I had to convince myself. I wrote a python program to simulate it a million times, Thinking for sure I was going to disprove everyone. But the result clearly showed 2/3 probability of a good outcome if you switched. This let my mind switch from “this can’t be true” to “this is true, now I need to intuit why”.