If you go to the casino, you don’t know how much money you’re going to loose. But you can calculate an expectation value because the odds are known. In the fina

If you go to the casino, you don’t know how much money you’re going to loose. But you can calculate an expectation value because the odds are known. In the financial system, you cannot quantify your risk. It depends on many more factors (including human behavior) than rolling a dice. This is probably true for people working inside SVB. For people looking at the aggregated reports from the outside it’s worse or practically impossible to judge.