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Russia isn't currently in a position to invade another country. In the medium-long term, *stans might want to balance the relations between Russia and China (a

Russia isn't currently in a position to invade another country. In the medium-long term, *stans might want to balance the relations between Russia and China (and a bit with the West) which might make further Russian invasions unlikely.

smcl 4y ago
Yeah to me (admittedly a complete outsider) they seem to just barely have the capability to remain in the fight in Ukraine, it's almost unthinkable that they'd try to open another front. I've also been wondering recently if Georgia might see this war as an opportune moment to retake South Ossetia and Abkhazia, or if Moldova might attempt to reestablish control of Transnistria. With Russia underresourced and distracted there may not ever be a better time to do so. Note that I understand this is complex and that none of those three regions are officially 100% controlled and occupied by Russia the way Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk are, and that residents might not 100% desire to be "liberated" (I haven't spoken to anyone from those and don't follow opinion polling).
- cmrdporcupine 4y ago
  Unlikely; the current Georgian gov't is rabidly pro-Russian. They've got the previous (anti-Russian, pro-Ukrainian) president thrown in jail, slowly dying (Saakashvili). And the country is rammed full of Russian ex-pats. Much of the populace seems extremely unhappy about this, but it's an unstable situation in the wrong way that would lead to military action in that way.
  - 5e92cb50239222b 4y ago
    Most of those Russian expats are anti-Putin and anti-war. But I guess you don't care about that, as usual these days. We're the (old) new boogeyman, and this is Red Scare 2.0.
    - cmrdporcupine 4y ago
      I never said I don't care about that. But the situation is complicated. While many of those Russians align like you say, it doesn't change the fact that it remains a mix, that Russians have a heavy influence there, that there's tensions around that, and that alienating Russia or taking explicit anti-Putin positions is what the current Georgian gov't is currently trying to avoid. In any case I genuinely feel for the Russian anti-war or opposition diaspora and don't hold bigoted anti-Russian positions like others on this thread might be showing. It's a complicated situation and indicative of the broader problems we'll see more and more of as empires and hegemonies built around domination of hydrocarbon exports become more volatile.
      - 5e92cb50239222b 4y ago
        OK, that's fair, and I apologize for putting words in your mouth. It's been the default assumption lately, sadly. I am from Kazakhstan, and our government has been in a position similar to what they're experiencing in Georgia. Lots of paranoia about Putin trying to stir up something here. To slow down immigration, they implemented some new anti-immigration laws that aren't targeted specifically at Russian citizens (although it quite obvious to everyone bothering to observe), so they pretty much can't stay here for more than a few months. But I guess Georgia depends on migrant's money much more than we do, so they can't simply do the same.
    - smcl 4y ago
      Yeah I had read that a good number of anti-war people had gone there both before and after mobilisation. In fact I was watching a video by the youtuber "nfkrz" (from Chelyabinsk, left after the invasion and now lives in Tbilisi) who made a really interesting point. You can still travel to the EU if you're a Russian passport holder, however you do still need to get a visa from the destination country's embassy inside Russia. So if you wanted no part in the war and made it across the border to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Georgia or Armenia or wherever you are kinda stuck, you can't travel onwards to (say) Germany because that would mean returning to Russia and risking trouble especially if you were supposed to be mobilised. Meanwhile if you remained (whether you were quietly against it, ambivalent or super pro-Z) you don't necessarily have that barrier[0] Seems like a bit of a no-brainer to me - we should just allow Russians apply for EU/EEC country's visas outside Russia. If someone wants to not take part in a war, we should be making that easier for them as much as possible not harder or more dangerous :-/ [0] - I don't think it's easy but it's certainly a couple of levels easier than it is for those who left.
- spiralx 4y ago
  See them refusing military assistance to Armenia - a defensive treaty ally - which has been invaded by Azerbaijan in the last year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NOMj7n6QAM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NOMj7n6QAM
inglor_cz 4y ago
The current Kazakh leadership certainly seems to be intent on balancing Chinese, Russian and Western influences. In the future, possibly even South Asian influences. It makes sense; Kazakhstan is a huge country, can't be easily subdued by force, so diplomacy is the name of the game, and it pays to be "an expensive bride" to multiple suitors. Especially when accounting for Kazakh natural resources.
5e92cb50239222b 4y ago
That "might want to" you're describing has been our diplomatic policy for literally centuries. It's nothing new.

smcl 4y ago

Yeah to me (admittedly a complete outsider) they seem to just barely have the capability to remain in the fight in Ukraine, it's almost unthinkable that they'd try to open another front. I've also been wondering recently if Georgia might see this war as an opportune moment to retake South Ossetia and Abkhazia, or if Moldova might attempt to reestablish control of Transnistria. With Russia underresourced and distracted there may not ever be a better time to do so. Note that I understand this is complex and that none of those three regions are officially 100% controlled and occupied by Russia the way Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk are, and that residents might not 100% desire to be "liberated" (I haven't spoken to anyone from those and don't follow opinion polling).

cmrdporcupine 4y ago
Unlikely; the current Georgian gov't is rabidly pro-Russian. They've got the previous (anti-Russian, pro-Ukrainian) president thrown in jail, slowly dying (Saakashvili). And the country is rammed full of Russian ex-pats. Much of the populace seems extremely unhappy about this, but it's an unstable situation in the wrong way that would lead to military action in that way.
- 5e92cb50239222b 4y ago
  Most of those Russian expats are anti-Putin and anti-war. But I guess you don't care about that, as usual these days. We're the (old) new boogeyman, and this is Red Scare 2.0.
  - cmrdporcupine 4y ago
    I never said I don't care about that. But the situation is complicated. While many of those Russians align like you say, it doesn't change the fact that it remains a mix, that Russians have a heavy influence there, that there's tensions around that, and that alienating Russia or taking explicit anti-Putin positions is what the current Georgian gov't is currently trying to avoid. In any case I genuinely feel for the Russian anti-war or opposition diaspora and don't hold bigoted anti-Russian positions like others on this thread might be showing. It's a complicated situation and indicative of the broader problems we'll see more and more of as empires and hegemonies built around domination of hydrocarbon exports become more volatile.
    - 5e92cb50239222b 4y ago
      OK, that's fair, and I apologize for putting words in your mouth. It's been the default assumption lately, sadly. I am from Kazakhstan, and our government has been in a position similar to what they're experiencing in Georgia. Lots of paranoia about Putin trying to stir up something here. To slow down immigration, they implemented some new anti-immigration laws that aren't targeted specifically at Russian citizens (although it quite obvious to everyone bothering to observe), so they pretty much can't stay here for more than a few months. But I guess Georgia depends on migrant's money much more than we do, so they can't simply do the same.
  - smcl 4y ago
    Yeah I had read that a good number of anti-war people had gone there both before and after mobilisation. In fact I was watching a video by the youtuber "nfkrz" (from Chelyabinsk, left after the invasion and now lives in Tbilisi) who made a really interesting point. You can still travel to the EU if you're a Russian passport holder, however you do still need to get a visa from the destination country's embassy inside Russia. So if you wanted no part in the war and made it across the border to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Georgia or Armenia or wherever you are kinda stuck, you can't travel onwards to (say) Germany because that would mean returning to Russia and risking trouble especially if you were supposed to be mobilised. Meanwhile if you remained (whether you were quietly against it, ambivalent or super pro-Z) you don't necessarily have that barrier[0] Seems like a bit of a no-brainer to me - we should just allow Russians apply for EU/EEC country's visas outside Russia. If someone wants to not take part in a war, we should be making that easier for them as much as possible not harder or more dangerous :-/ [0] - I don't think it's easy but it's certainly a couple of levels easier than it is for those who left.
spiralx 4y ago
See them refusing military assistance to Armenia - a defensive treaty ally - which has been invaded by Azerbaijan in the last year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NOMj7n6QAM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NOMj7n6QAM

inglor_cz 4y ago

The current Kazakh leadership certainly seems to be intent on balancing Chinese, Russian and Western influences. In the future, possibly even South Asian influences. It makes sense; Kazakhstan is a huge country, can't be easily subdued by force, so diplomacy is the name of the game, and it pays to be "an expensive bride" to multiple suitors. Especially when accounting for Kazakh natural resources.

5e92cb50239222b 4y ago

That "might want to" you're describing has been our diplomatic policy for literally centuries. It's nothing new.