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> your hand wringing over heat-pump induced blackouts seems misplaced. I would very much appreciate it if we could keep to a mutually-respectful conversation r

> your hand wringing over heat-pump induced blackouts seems misplaced. I would very much appreciate it if we could keep to a mutually-respectful conversation rather than resorting to insults. We only learn if we respect each other's positions. I have no problem being wrong. Show me how and will forever be grateful. I have no problem with anyone challenging anything I say. Thanks for questioning my claim. I can't get into numbers for Chicago without doing much research. Not sure that data exists. This is what I was able to find quickly though: https://www.statista.com/statistics/220357/manufactured-shipments-of-unitary-air-conditioners/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/220357/manufactured-ship... According to this information over six million HVAC systems were sold per year in 2021. I think it is fair to assume these systems were installed. They don't provide information on the geographic distribution, kind or type of installation (residential, commercial or industrial). What it says for me is that there's a great deal of installation capacity. This page gives us a sense of the concentration of contractors per state: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1243016/plumbing-and-hvac-contractors-by-state-usa/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1243016/plumbing-and-hva... This association link gives us an idea of how many HVAC contractors exist in the US: https://www.ibisworld.com/industry-statistics/number-of-businesses/heating-air-conditioning-contractors-united-states https://www.ibisworld.com/industry-statistics/number-of-busi... Their number is 145K. The first link says Illinois has about 4100 contractors, or 2.8% of the national number. I am just trying to get a sense of proportion here with some quick math. I do realize these numbers come from different years. If I take the 6 million annual HVAC system sales rate for the US and calculate 2.8% of that, we get 168K units per year. Per this metric, installing a million units would require just 6 years. If the million units, on average [0], require 3 kW of power, we are adding a power requirement of 504 MW per year. I am trying to keep it simple. In terms of power demand, the average is meaningless [0], what matters are outliers on the high side of the distribution curve. Keeping it simple... By this metric we would need to build half a nuclear power plant [1] per year in Illinois, for a total of three brand-new nuclear power plants in six years. I think these numbers more than support my thinking that power problems might be severe. If we understand that, once again, averages are a horrible metric [0], the numbers are likely much higher than this. Over that period of time electric ground transportation would experience significant growth, further exacerbating the problem. BTW, I have not addressed the issues we will have with the grid itself --power transmission lines, substations, transformers, etc.-- not being able to handle the increased load. The current estimate is that a full transition to electric vehicles will roughly require a doubling of the entire US power generation and transmission infrastructure [3]. This means the equivalent of 1200 brand new nuclear power plants. By this I do not mean we have to build that many, I am using them as a unit of measure for a sense of proportion [1]. Electric heat pumps will add significant demand on top of this. As I said in another post, this, I feel, is a cart before the horse situation. There's nothing wrong with electrification. What's wrong is that we need to put the horse (power generation) ahead of the cart. As far as I can tell, we are not doing that, at all, anywhere. Solar and wind are not enough. We need a non-trivial program to boost energy generation and transmission capacity. This, in my opinion, must include nuclear power. Notes: [0] I truly hate using averages because it is a horrible figure that has no merit when applied to the entire population. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyranny_of_averages https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyranny_of_averages https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anscombe%27s_quartet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anscombe%27s_quartet [1] I like to use nuclear power plants for a sense of proportion because the typical plant is rated at 1 GW and people can understand the severity of needing new nuclear power plants. [3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcI6FaaDp8g&t=3510s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcI6FaaDp8g&t=3510s

PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
There's a major study out of Princeton from a year or two ago that fully covers what is needed for full electrification with only renewables, and with mostly renewables. It covers all this much better than I could, especially here on HN: https://netzeroamerica.princeton.edu/the-report https://netzeroamerica.princeton.edu/the-report My take on that report is "yep, this would/will be a major effort, as large as anything we've ever done, but not much more than an order of magnitude beyond anything we've ever done".
- robomartin 4y ago
  Yeah, from my perspective, the fact that it is large isn't the problem. The issues is that we can't seem to get anything done. Politicians --of all denominations-- stopped working for us and towards solid long term objectives for the benefit of society a long time ago, decades. Their focus is firmly aimed at winning elections and opposing the other side. We, the people, well, we don't really matter, all they want is our votes. Stupid us. A prime example of this is the "high speed" train here in California. They said the bill was ten billion. We are in for over a hundred billion. What had been built isn't finished and it isn't even high speed (I think it tops out at around 50 mph). The whole thing is a disgusting example of just how dysfunctional we have become as a nation. And so, I look at the idea of having to, say, double, our power generation and distribution infrastructure and the only equation that balances out in my head says: Good luck. It will never happen. I hope I am wrong. A sign of this would be for these people (politicians) to finally get their heads out of their behinds, work together and put forth a solid 25 year plan to materially expand our power generation and distribution. A plan that is executable, not some hand-wavy thing that will never happen. Anyhow, I don't want to be a pessimist, yet, I can't see any evidence of anything that might lead me to believe this nation is capable of the great things we accomplished in the past. The Hoover Damn could not be built today. We could say that about almost every large scale project going back a century or more. Can you imagine proposing to build the Panama Canal today? Right. In this context, we are waving our hands and talking about 300 million electric cars and 100 million all-electric homes. Part of me things "C'mon. Get serious".
  - 4y ago

PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago

There's a major study out of Princeton from a year or two ago that fully covers what is needed for full electrification with only renewables, and with mostly renewables. It covers all this much better than I could, especially here on HN: https://netzeroamerica.princeton.edu/the-report https://netzeroamerica.princeton.edu/the-report My take on that report is "yep, this would/will be a major effort, as large as anything we've ever done, but not much more than an order of magnitude beyond anything we've ever done".

robomartin 4y ago
Yeah, from my perspective, the fact that it is large isn't the problem. The issues is that we can't seem to get anything done. Politicians --of all denominations-- stopped working for us and towards solid long term objectives for the benefit of society a long time ago, decades. Their focus is firmly aimed at winning elections and opposing the other side. We, the people, well, we don't really matter, all they want is our votes. Stupid us. A prime example of this is the "high speed" train here in California. They said the bill was ten billion. We are in for over a hundred billion. What had been built isn't finished and it isn't even high speed (I think it tops out at around 50 mph). The whole thing is a disgusting example of just how dysfunctional we have become as a nation. And so, I look at the idea of having to, say, double, our power generation and distribution infrastructure and the only equation that balances out in my head says: Good luck. It will never happen. I hope I am wrong. A sign of this would be for these people (politicians) to finally get their heads out of their behinds, work together and put forth a solid 25 year plan to materially expand our power generation and distribution. A plan that is executable, not some hand-wavy thing that will never happen. Anyhow, I don't want to be a pessimist, yet, I can't see any evidence of anything that might lead me to believe this nation is capable of the great things we accomplished in the past. The Hoover Damn could not be built today. We could say that about almost every large scale project going back a century or more. Can you imagine proposing to build the Panama Canal today? Right. In this context, we are waving our hands and talking about 300 million electric cars and 100 million all-electric homes. Part of me things "C'mon. Get serious".
- 4y ago