3 ms·

My worry from debating Chinese nationalists is that they think war is necessary, that it will go their way, and that it will end. I totally understand China wa

My worry from debating Chinese nationalists is that they think war is necessary, that it will go their way, and that it will end. I totally understand China wanting to be superpower. They seem to think that the US is coercing everybody, including allies, by force. They think that if US is defeated and they can replace them or at least coerce the local area. I wish they kept using soft power, that was working well for them. They talk about Taiwan falling immediately and nobody helping them. China is stronger now but even alone Taiwan could put up a strong fight. Excluding big change in politics, the US will defend Taiwan. China could still win, but it would be uncertain. They also ignore the consequences like cutting off trade with most of the world. Finally, I'm most worried about how the war ends. If China succeeds in invasion, then war will probably end. But do they realize that trade will never return to normal. Or that South Korea and Japan will build nuclear weapons if US commitment wavers. Also, that there are actions, like attacking US mainland, which will escalate the war and make it hard to end except in nuclear war.

skinnymuch 4y ago
> My worry from debating Chinese nationalists is that they think war is necessary, that it will go their way, and that it will end. Is this bravado any different than what Europeans and Americans regularly do? Look at the imperialism and colonizing. Why can’t the west leave the world alone? Of course Taiwan and Ukraine are serious circumstances but so are Yemen, Congo, Palestine, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Venezuela, Cuba, Falkan Islands, and the hundreds of coups perpetrated. When the west does stuff, the world stays out of the way. When any one else does anything, all of a sudden it’s about them being unreasonable compared to us. The major exceptions to this have been how the world treats Slavs. They’re slowly getting closer to being part of the west but the treatment vs the hegemonic powers is different. > They also ignore the consequences like cutting off trade with most of the world. This is primarily the five eyes, EU, and allies? This generally is what we consider white people and the consequences of colonialism and imperialism. The west is only like a billion people and change. Maybe 1.25B. > attacking US mainland That would never happen. Why not be worried the US will invade mainland China?
- Invictus0 4y ago
  Seriously? Both-sidesing Taiwan? All China has to do is not invade. > Why can’t the west leave the world alone? Why can't China leave Taiwan alone?
  - skinnymuch 4y ago
    > Why can't China leave Taiwan alone? They should. Now respond to my post in good faith as the rules of HN dictate.
- ianburrell 4y ago
  I agree that the West has done terrible things. In fact, I think China would have success with global south exploiting that. China should learn the lesson not to conquer people, not that they need to act the same way. China should go do its thing, making stuff and helping other countries, and only fight when they need to. The way for China to show they are the strongest and best is to give Taiwan its independence. My worry is that China thinks it needs to invade Taiwan to show they are superpower and knock down the current superpower. Which will just create an endless war, look at the Cold War or WW2. I have theory that authoritarian government produces this dominance thinking, combined with misconception about how the US rules. The West is half of the world economy. In the middle of the war, no ships will sail to China since it would be too risky. In addition, the US and allies can easily blockade China completely. Another consequence is that invasion will destroy the fabs in Taiwan and nobody will get chips for a while. I was debating with someone from China that was afraid of US invading mainland China, and we were all pointing out that was impossible. He was talking about scenarios of China attacking US mainland, we pointed out that was unlikely and deeply unwise. He couldn't handle that China would likely be attacked and couldn't respond. But that is limited war works to prevent nuclear war.
  - skinnymuch 4y ago
    My point was the casual way of demeaning the world by saying most won’t trade with China. People aren’t dollars. > authoritarian government produces this dominance thinking, combined with misconception about how the US rules Westerners have a misconception of what is authoritarian or democratic, and what isn’t. China is authoritarian but so is manufacturing consent under liberal regimes. There’s a startling amt of propaganda the west takes in to believe in their own superiority. I listed many examples of western imperialism and mucking about. That’s a fraction of the total amount. Which is many, many times more than China. China is bad. So is the west. Everything you fear about Chinese thinking is a mirror of western thinking except add smugness and elitism to the mix. How does the US rule? > Another consequence is that invasion will destroy the fabs in Taiwan and nobody will get chips for a while. Less weapons to kill innocent Palestinians with? Sounds okay to me.

skinnymuch 4y ago

> My worry from debating Chinese nationalists is that they think war is necessary, that it will go their way, and that it will end. Is this bravado any different than what Europeans and Americans regularly do? Look at the imperialism and colonizing. Why can’t the west leave the world alone? Of course Taiwan and Ukraine are serious circumstances but so are Yemen, Congo, Palestine, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Venezuela, Cuba, Falkan Islands, and the hundreds of coups perpetrated. When the west does stuff, the world stays out of the way. When any one else does anything, all of a sudden it’s about them being unreasonable compared to us. The major exceptions to this have been how the world treats Slavs. They’re slowly getting closer to being part of the west but the treatment vs the hegemonic powers is different. > They also ignore the consequences like cutting off trade with most of the world. This is primarily the five eyes, EU, and allies? This generally is what we consider white people and the consequences of colonialism and imperialism. The west is only like a billion people and change. Maybe 1.25B. > attacking US mainland That would never happen. Why not be worried the US will invade mainland China?

Invictus0 4y ago
Seriously? Both-sidesing Taiwan? All China has to do is not invade. > Why can’t the west leave the world alone? Why can't China leave Taiwan alone?
- skinnymuch 4y ago
  > Why can't China leave Taiwan alone? They should. Now respond to my post in good faith as the rules of HN dictate.
ianburrell 4y ago
I agree that the West has done terrible things. In fact, I think China would have success with global south exploiting that. China should learn the lesson not to conquer people, not that they need to act the same way. China should go do its thing, making stuff and helping other countries, and only fight when they need to. The way for China to show they are the strongest and best is to give Taiwan its independence. My worry is that China thinks it needs to invade Taiwan to show they are superpower and knock down the current superpower. Which will just create an endless war, look at the Cold War or WW2. I have theory that authoritarian government produces this dominance thinking, combined with misconception about how the US rules. The West is half of the world economy. In the middle of the war, no ships will sail to China since it would be too risky. In addition, the US and allies can easily blockade China completely. Another consequence is that invasion will destroy the fabs in Taiwan and nobody will get chips for a while. I was debating with someone from China that was afraid of US invading mainland China, and we were all pointing out that was impossible. He was talking about scenarios of China attacking US mainland, we pointed out that was unlikely and deeply unwise. He couldn't handle that China would likely be attacked and couldn't respond. But that is limited war works to prevent nuclear war.
- skinnymuch 4y ago
  My point was the casual way of demeaning the world by saying most won’t trade with China. People aren’t dollars. > authoritarian government produces this dominance thinking, combined with misconception about how the US rules Westerners have a misconception of what is authoritarian or democratic, and what isn’t. China is authoritarian but so is manufacturing consent under liberal regimes. There’s a startling amt of propaganda the west takes in to believe in their own superiority. I listed many examples of western imperialism and mucking about. That’s a fraction of the total amount. Which is many, many times more than China. China is bad. So is the west. Everything you fear about Chinese thinking is a mirror of western thinking except add smugness and elitism to the mix. How does the US rule? > Another consequence is that invasion will destroy the fabs in Taiwan and nobody will get chips for a while. Less weapons to kill innocent Palestinians with? Sounds okay to me.