3 ms·

I don’t think such war will happen. The tensions will be on technological “supremacy”, political and economic isolation, corporate sanctions, and international

by aborsy 4y ago

I don’t think such war will happen. The tensions will be on technological “supremacy”, political and economic isolation, corporate sanctions, and international support, somewhat a Cold War. I also believe China is a peaking (rather than a rising) power at this stage. Its growth rate has declined from 14% to less than 5% now. China is facing an aging population (due to the one child policy of the past), international hostility, internal political and numerous other problems.

ianburrell 4y ago
I hope China recognizes that challenging the West politically and economically is much better option. I think the best thing China could do would be negotiate with Taiwan for their independence. It is funny that option is never suggested as possibility.
- unity1001 4y ago
  > I hope China recognizes that challenging the West politically and economically is much better option The Taiwan War is being pushed precisely because China has been doing exactly that and the US wants China to stop and do what Japan did in 1985 by signing the Plaza Accords. China will never do that. Hence, the war...
  - ianburrell 4y ago
    China is concerned about currency markets so that is why they have to invade Taiwan? China is strong enough that they don't have to listen. It doesn't really show you are strong to threaten to invade another country to demonstrate strength.
    - unity1001 4y ago
      > China is concerned about currency markets so that is why they have to invade Taiwan? China has to invade Taiwan only if the US starts arming Taiwan to use it as a pawn against China like how the US openly declared that it intends doing. China will not make the mistake of waiting 8 years like Russia. > China is strong enough that they don't have to listen. Any sane observer of geopolitics who doesnt have a 6-figure paycheck that depends depend on saying what his employers want said, would say that China has been silent for way too long and the US would immediately start a war if anyone did so much as to threaten doing what the US has been doing to other countries. Then again, China has only recently reached the military power that could fight the US on even grounds without having to resort to a nuclear war.
      - ianburrell 4y ago
        US has been arming Taiwan since its inception. How is now different? More important, Taiwan is arming itself. Taiwan is rich enough that can build own weapons, and they could make difference in invasion. In particular, Taiwan could make nuclear weapons. They haven’t because US has pledge defense. BTW, China should be clear that they might be able to invade Taiwan. But couldn’t defeat the US Navy beyond range of aircraft and missiles.
        unity1001 4y ago
        > US has been arming Taiwan since its inception. How is now different? After Nixon and the relations being restored in between China and the US, a detente was reached on this. The US avoided arming Taiwan in a way that it could be a threat to China, and China did not press the issue. The US broke that detente. > Taiwan is rich enough that can build own weapons No non-superpower country is capable of building their own weapons that could allow them to stand against a superpower. > In particular, Taiwan could make nuclear weapons Having a few missiles that can mount nuclear warheads and travel a thousand km is not having 'nuclear weapons'. Every major superpower has the air defense systems that can shoot down such missiles from up to 500-600 km and dozens of kilometers altitude. You must have a legion of such missiles with multiple warheads to be able to saturate the defenses. > But couldn’t defeat the US Navy beyond range of aircraft and missiles. That's decade old thinking. China has hypersonic anti ship missiles that can reach over 1k km now, and a lot of submarines. Gone are the days of the aircraft carrier...
- avgcorrection 4y ago
  > I hope China recognizes that challenging the West politically and economically is much better option. And that’s what they’re doing? This isn’t a Chinese outlet writing about how the sides are “preparing for war”.
  - ianburrell 4y ago
    China continually threatens war over Taiwan. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/11/china-renews-threat-warns-taiwan-independence-will-be https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/11/china-renews-threat...
    - avgcorrection 4y ago
      The only quote that used directly violent verbs were: > A spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said on Wednesday that Beijing was recommitted in the new year to “safeguarding sovereignty and territorial integrity” and “smashing plots for Taiwan independence”. That quote links to another Al J article where the keywords “plot” and “smash” are not present. These nation states talk all the time about how “X will not go unpunished”. But most times that’s interpreted as things like sanctions or other supposedly non-violent means.
      - singularity2001 4y ago
        Watch Chinese news to see that China has a very militaristic approach
        avgcorrection 4y ago
        Watch Fox News to see that Republicans have a very (shall we say) “militaristic approach” to the Great Powers enemies of the US. The US is still not going to attack them.
        galaxytachyon 4y ago
        I don't think that is a fair comparison. Fox News isn't an official government mouthpiece. For whatever favors they have, they still can't speak for the US government. No news source in the US is. China can't claim the same with the amount of censorship and information control they have. If a main news channel in China is pushing some type of information, it is very likely such information was explicitly approved by the Chinese government.
- dole 4y ago
  Watching China's expansion into the South China Sea and the Spratly Islands over the last number of years make me skeptical of them giving up any amount of land.
- yucky 4y ago
  > It is funny that option is never suggested as possibility. Nothing funny about it, it's an absolute non-starter for them which is why it's never suggested.

by aborsy 4y ago

ianburrell 4y ago

I hope China recognizes that challenging the West politically and economically is much better option. I think the best thing China could do would be negotiate with Taiwan for their independence. It is funny that option is never suggested as possibility.

unity1001 4y ago
> I hope China recognizes that challenging the West politically and economically is much better option The Taiwan War is being pushed precisely because China has been doing exactly that and the US wants China to stop and do what Japan did in 1985 by signing the Plaza Accords. China will never do that. Hence, the war...
- ianburrell 4y ago
  China is concerned about currency markets so that is why they have to invade Taiwan? China is strong enough that they don't have to listen. It doesn't really show you are strong to threaten to invade another country to demonstrate strength.
  - unity1001 4y ago
    > China is concerned about currency markets so that is why they have to invade Taiwan? China has to invade Taiwan only if the US starts arming Taiwan to use it as a pawn against China like how the US openly declared that it intends doing. China will not make the mistake of waiting 8 years like Russia. > China is strong enough that they don't have to listen. Any sane observer of geopolitics who doesnt have a 6-figure paycheck that depends depend on saying what his employers want said, would say that China has been silent for way too long and the US would immediately start a war if anyone did so much as to threaten doing what the US has been doing to other countries. Then again, China has only recently reached the military power that could fight the US on even grounds without having to resort to a nuclear war.
    - ianburrell 4y ago
      US has been arming Taiwan since its inception. How is now different? More important, Taiwan is arming itself. Taiwan is rich enough that can build own weapons, and they could make difference in invasion. In particular, Taiwan could make nuclear weapons. They haven’t because US has pledge defense. BTW, China should be clear that they might be able to invade Taiwan. But couldn’t defeat the US Navy beyond range of aircraft and missiles.
      - unity1001 4y ago
        > US has been arming Taiwan since its inception. How is now different? After Nixon and the relations being restored in between China and the US, a detente was reached on this. The US avoided arming Taiwan in a way that it could be a threat to China, and China did not press the issue. The US broke that detente. > Taiwan is rich enough that can build own weapons No non-superpower country is capable of building their own weapons that could allow them to stand against a superpower. > In particular, Taiwan could make nuclear weapons Having a few missiles that can mount nuclear warheads and travel a thousand km is not having 'nuclear weapons'. Every major superpower has the air defense systems that can shoot down such missiles from up to 500-600 km and dozens of kilometers altitude. You must have a legion of such missiles with multiple warheads to be able to saturate the defenses. > But couldn’t defeat the US Navy beyond range of aircraft and missiles. That's decade old thinking. China has hypersonic anti ship missiles that can reach over 1k km now, and a lot of submarines. Gone are the days of the aircraft carrier...
avgcorrection 4y ago
> I hope China recognizes that challenging the West politically and economically is much better option. And that’s what they’re doing? This isn’t a Chinese outlet writing about how the sides are “preparing for war”.
- ianburrell 4y ago
  China continually threatens war over Taiwan. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/11/china-renews-threat-warns-taiwan-independence-will-be https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/11/china-renews-threat...
  - avgcorrection 4y ago
    The only quote that used directly violent verbs were: > A spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said on Wednesday that Beijing was recommitted in the new year to “safeguarding sovereignty and territorial integrity” and “smashing plots for Taiwan independence”. That quote links to another Al J article where the keywords “plot” and “smash” are not present. These nation states talk all the time about how “X will not go unpunished”. But most times that’s interpreted as things like sanctions or other supposedly non-violent means.
    - singularity2001 4y ago
      Watch Chinese news to see that China has a very militaristic approach
      - avgcorrection 4y ago
        Watch Fox News to see that Republicans have a very (shall we say) “militaristic approach” to the Great Powers enemies of the US. The US is still not going to attack them.
        galaxytachyon 4y ago
        I don't think that is a fair comparison. Fox News isn't an official government mouthpiece. For whatever favors they have, they still can't speak for the US government. No news source in the US is. China can't claim the same with the amount of censorship and information control they have. If a main news channel in China is pushing some type of information, it is very likely such information was explicitly approved by the Chinese government.
dole 4y ago
Watching China's expansion into the South China Sea and the Spratly Islands over the last number of years make me skeptical of them giving up any amount of land.
yucky 4y ago
> It is funny that option is never suggested as possibility. Nothing funny about it, it's an absolute non-starter for them which is why it's never suggested.