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Rivian's vans make so much more sense than Tesla semi - smaller vehicle, travel predictable routes, can be changed with existing infrastructure, and reduced cos

Rivian's vans make so much more sense than Tesla semi - smaller vehicle, travel predictable routes, can be changed with existing infrastructure, and reduced cost of fuel leads to savings. So does reduced maintenance. The best economics for electric vehciles were always going to be light and medium vehicles with high utilisation. Not personal cars. Not heavy vehicles sensitive to weight and power. PS: I am wondering why Tesla is offering nothing in Vans, Minibusses, Busses, and even their pickup is nowhere to be found - instead are spending huge amound of engineering effort to build a heavy truck and associated infra.

agloe_dreams 4y ago
Absolutely. I'm not convinced Rivian actually makes it out alive...But I fully expect that at the last dying breaths someone will step in and buy the whole damn thing. Likely Ford. Maybe Apple. Possibly someone in the EV space already but not in trucks/vans like Geely. Rebrand the vans as Volvo Trucks products. If it wasn't for Scout, VW would be a great fit.
AnthonyMouse 4y ago
Heavy trucks are extremely sensitive to fuel costs. They commonly burn more than $300 in diesel in one shift. Add semi chargers at some truck stops on major highways and every truck route that traverses those highways can switch to electric. In-town routes install a charger at the company's own site. The infrastructure isn't a problem. Personal cars can be charged at home. The main impediment was getting the up-front cost competitive with ICE cars, but the base Model 3 costs less than the average new car. Tesla sells every vehicle they can produce. So does Rivian. Because electric vehicles are going to replace ICE ones.
- mh- 4y ago
  How much does $300 of diesel weigh compared to the equivalent electric range capacity with current battery tech? The energy density of diesel is important to the economics of long-haul trucking. If you replace half of your cargo weight with your own batteries, it doesn't work with the status quo.
  - csoete 4y ago
    Engineering Explained did an episode especially on the topic [1], it seems a huge amount of routes could indeed be replaced by an electrical semi. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvg_i0GE0Vo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvg_i0GE0Vo
  - londons_explore 4y ago
    Currently weight matters because there are laws on the maximum weight of certain kinds of trucks. However, I believe that with a good lobbying team, those laws could be changed if an EV truck maker could demonstrate they can do less damage to the road with a heavier truck, for example with better traction control and more drive wheels. Or maybe just wider wheels and lower or even variable tyre pressures.
  - AnthonyMouse 4y ago
    Most trucks aren't at their weight limit. There will be electric trucks that can carry moderate loads for long distances and others (with smaller batteries) that can carry heavy loads for shorter distances. For heavy loads and long distances, you could use the latter and charge it more often, but you should just put it on a train.
dawnerd 4y ago
They still serve very different purposes. Tesla semi isn't going to be driving down residential streets. Vans are not delivering pallets of chips. I do think EV Vans will be a huge help for climate change and residential noise levels. Can't wait to not hear UPS/Fedex trucks multiple times a day.
- alistairSH 4y ago
  Too bad EV doesn't fix the incessant back-up beeping. Or worse, Amazon's crunchy mechanical back-up noise. Not sure which I loathe more... beep beep beep or aaahnnn aaahnnn aaahnnn
  - shortcake27 4y ago
    You should visit the UK. The trucks audibly announce their intentions. “STAND CLEAR. THIS VEHICLE IS TURNING LEFT. STAND CLEAR. THIS VEHICLE IS TURNING LEFT”.
    - alistairSH 4y ago
      On the plus side, that probably means those drivers are using their turn signals. It's a bit of a free-for-all here in the states.
  - thrill 4y ago
    It'll be worse. Present law requires EVs to also make artificial irritating noise in either direction.
  - Arrath 4y ago
    I'd rather hear beeping than have more people end up flat.
- richardw 4y ago
  I’m hoping for something far smaller than a car. A couple shopping bags or three pizzas in a very fast tiny delivery vehicle.
panick21_ 4y ago
This is a pretty absurd comparison. A delivery truck vs a Semi, totally different markets. > The best economics for electric vehciles were always going to be light and medium vehicles with high utilisation. A point-to-point delivery company can use the Semi at high utilization. > Not heavy vehicles sensitive to weight and power. Semi addresses a huge part of the overall trucking market.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- rtkwe 4y ago
  The big issue with utilization on large electric semis is recharge times, current designs of 300-500 mile range will need at least one recharge during the day and that will eat into the driving hours allowed by law for truckers.
  - ouid 4y ago
    Is anyone actually offering or proposing a semi with a 300-500 mile range?
    - rtkwe 4y ago
      That's Tesla's claimed range but I'll believe it when I see it. That project hasn't surfaced much since it's initial announcement as far as I'm aware.
      - panick21_ 4y ago
        Actually they have delivered some vehicles and they are in production. It isn't full speed production but its in production. 500 miles is tough and you need the right conditions, see: https://cleantechnica.com/2022/12/11/watch-tesla-semis-500-mile-drive-on-one-charge/ https://cleantechnica.com/2022/12/11/watch-tesla-semis-500-m... 300 miles is no issue.
  - panick21_ 4y ago
ericmay 4y ago
I deally we'd have something like freight rail to larger cities and then smaller delivery vehicles from there. > Not personal cars. I agree. EVs (I own one they're cool) are additive solutions (more is better) and we need subtractive solutions to solve many social and economic problems (i.e. reduction in vehicle-based economic activity by using sidewalks). Probably more participatory economic activity too anyway. It's a lot easier to start a cafe than start a car company.
micah63 4y ago
During the investor day March 1st there was what seems to be a van shape covered by a white blanket on one of the slides. There is an image here: https://www.drive.com.au/news/tesla-van-teased-investor-day/ https://www.drive.com.au/news/tesla-van-teased-investor-day/ I'm pretty sure the next two vehicles are a small affordable hatchback and a van. I least I hope so! I have a Nissan Passenger NV 12-seater van for our family of 9 and it's not fun paying $150/tank to fill up : S
- ElijahLynn 4y ago
  Era of electric mini-vans are coming! Love it!
londons_explore 4y ago
I think Tesla is suffering from a lack of management employees/skill to be able to release products faster. As soon as they had the model 3 out of the door, they should have started the development in parallel of a few goods vehicles, a pick up truck, an offroad vehicle, and a few micro cars too. They should have sped through the design stages, used common and off the shelf parts, and got them to market in 2 years. Then, any model that sells well you redesign 'tesla style' (ie. vertically integrated, nearly every part heavily optimized for cost & performance), and re-release.
- r00fus 4y ago
  Not a huge Tesla fan, but they did release the Model Y. Then the pandemic hit. I cancelled my Cybertruck order last year when it was clear it wasn't going to show up till 2024 or later and pricing was likely going to go up.
ElijahLynn 4y ago
Musk gave a presentation on Tesla Semis and competing with Rail. And if you take like 5 semis and put them butt to butt (to reduce drag), autonomously, you can beat the cost of Rail. And you essentially just took Rail and expanded the reach of it with all the highways in the US. So that is the grand plan, to go after Rail.
- Arrath 4y ago
  Presumably the congestion added by a bunch of 250' long trailer centipedes on the road would drive commuter traffic into Musk's surely-by-then existent hyperloop?

agloe_dreams 4y ago

Absolutely. I'm not convinced Rivian actually makes it out alive...But I fully expect that at the last dying breaths someone will step in and buy the whole damn thing. Likely Ford. Maybe Apple. Possibly someone in the EV space already but not in trucks/vans like Geely. Rebrand the vans as Volvo Trucks products. If it wasn't for Scout, VW would be a great fit.

AnthonyMouse 4y ago

Heavy trucks are extremely sensitive to fuel costs. They commonly burn more than $300 in diesel in one shift. Add semi chargers at some truck stops on major highways and every truck route that traverses those highways can switch to electric. In-town routes install a charger at the company's own site. The infrastructure isn't a problem. Personal cars can be charged at home. The main impediment was getting the up-front cost competitive with ICE cars, but the base Model 3 costs less than the average new car. Tesla sells every vehicle they can produce. So does Rivian. Because electric vehicles are going to replace ICE ones.

mh- 4y ago
How much does $300 of diesel weigh compared to the equivalent electric range capacity with current battery tech? The energy density of diesel is important to the economics of long-haul trucking. If you replace half of your cargo weight with your own batteries, it doesn't work with the status quo.
- csoete 4y ago
  Engineering Explained did an episode especially on the topic [1], it seems a huge amount of routes could indeed be replaced by an electrical semi. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvg_i0GE0Vo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvg_i0GE0Vo
- londons_explore 4y ago
  Currently weight matters because there are laws on the maximum weight of certain kinds of trucks. However, I believe that with a good lobbying team, those laws could be changed if an EV truck maker could demonstrate they can do less damage to the road with a heavier truck, for example with better traction control and more drive wheels. Or maybe just wider wheels and lower or even variable tyre pressures.
- AnthonyMouse 4y ago
  Most trucks aren't at their weight limit. There will be electric trucks that can carry moderate loads for long distances and others (with smaller batteries) that can carry heavy loads for shorter distances. For heavy loads and long distances, you could use the latter and charge it more often, but you should just put it on a train.

dawnerd 4y ago

They still serve very different purposes. Tesla semi isn't going to be driving down residential streets. Vans are not delivering pallets of chips. I do think EV Vans will be a huge help for climate change and residential noise levels. Can't wait to not hear UPS/Fedex trucks multiple times a day.

alistairSH 4y ago
Too bad EV doesn't fix the incessant back-up beeping. Or worse, Amazon's crunchy mechanical back-up noise. Not sure which I loathe more... beep beep beep or aaahnnn aaahnnn aaahnnn
- shortcake27 4y ago
  You should visit the UK. The trucks audibly announce their intentions. “STAND CLEAR. THIS VEHICLE IS TURNING LEFT. STAND CLEAR. THIS VEHICLE IS TURNING LEFT”.
  - alistairSH 4y ago
    On the plus side, that probably means those drivers are using their turn signals. It's a bit of a free-for-all here in the states.
- thrill 4y ago
  It'll be worse. Present law requires EVs to also make artificial irritating noise in either direction.
- Arrath 4y ago
  I'd rather hear beeping than have more people end up flat.
richardw 4y ago
I’m hoping for something far smaller than a car. A couple shopping bags or three pizzas in a very fast tiny delivery vehicle.

panick21_ 4y ago

This is a pretty absurd comparison. A delivery truck vs a Semi, totally different markets. > The best economics for electric vehciles were always going to be light and medium vehicles with high utilisation. A point-to-point delivery company can use the Semi at high utilization. > Not heavy vehicles sensitive to weight and power. Semi addresses a huge part of the overall trucking market.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
rtkwe 4y ago
The big issue with utilization on large electric semis is recharge times, current designs of 300-500 mile range will need at least one recharge during the day and that will eat into the driving hours allowed by law for truckers.
- ouid 4y ago
  Is anyone actually offering or proposing a semi with a 300-500 mile range?
  - rtkwe 4y ago
    That's Tesla's claimed range but I'll believe it when I see it. That project hasn't surfaced much since it's initial announcement as far as I'm aware.
    - panick21_ 4y ago
      Actually they have delivered some vehicles and they are in production. It isn't full speed production but its in production. 500 miles is tough and you need the right conditions, see: https://cleantechnica.com/2022/12/11/watch-tesla-semis-500-mile-drive-on-one-charge/ https://cleantechnica.com/2022/12/11/watch-tesla-semis-500-m... 300 miles is no issue.
- panick21_ 4y ago

ericmay 4y ago

I deally we'd have something like freight rail to larger cities and then smaller delivery vehicles from there. > Not personal cars. I agree. EVs (I own one they're cool) are additive solutions (more is better) and we need subtractive solutions to solve many social and economic problems (i.e. reduction in vehicle-based economic activity by using sidewalks). Probably more participatory economic activity too anyway. It's a lot easier to start a cafe than start a car company.

micah63 4y ago

During the investor day March 1st there was what seems to be a van shape covered by a white blanket on one of the slides. There is an image here: https://www.drive.com.au/news/tesla-van-teased-investor-day/ https://www.drive.com.au/news/tesla-van-teased-investor-day/ I'm pretty sure the next two vehicles are a small affordable hatchback and a van. I least I hope so! I have a Nissan Passenger NV 12-seater van for our family of 9 and it's not fun paying $150/tank to fill up : S

ElijahLynn 4y ago
Era of electric mini-vans are coming! Love it!

londons_explore 4y ago

I think Tesla is suffering from a lack of management employees/skill to be able to release products faster. As soon as they had the model 3 out of the door, they should have started the development in parallel of a few goods vehicles, a pick up truck, an offroad vehicle, and a few micro cars too. They should have sped through the design stages, used common and off the shelf parts, and got them to market in 2 years. Then, any model that sells well you redesign 'tesla style' (ie. vertically integrated, nearly every part heavily optimized for cost & performance), and re-release.

r00fus 4y ago
Not a huge Tesla fan, but they did release the Model Y. Then the pandemic hit. I cancelled my Cybertruck order last year when it was clear it wasn't going to show up till 2024 or later and pricing was likely going to go up.

ElijahLynn 4y ago

Musk gave a presentation on Tesla Semis and competing with Rail. And if you take like 5 semis and put them butt to butt (to reduce drag), autonomously, you can beat the cost of Rail. And you essentially just took Rail and expanded the reach of it with all the highways in the US. So that is the grand plan, to go after Rail.

Arrath 4y ago
Presumably the congestion added by a bunch of 250' long trailer centipedes on the road would drive commuter traffic into Musk's surely-by-then existent hyperloop?