3 ms·
What are the implications in two weeks?
by dukeofdoom 4y ago
What are the implications in two weeks?
- xyst 4y agoI see two paths: 1) dead cat bounce in bank sector (recovery) 2) continued bank failures at public regional banks and power continues to consolidate at the "too big to fail" banks
- samizdis 4y agoA dead cat bounce isn't a recovery, it's a bounce before the fall continues. {Edited wording for clarity.] See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce
- Analemma_ 4y agoSavvier investors not prone to uninformed panicking pick up a bunch of bank stocks on the cheap. Nobody else was making the dumb interest rate bets that SVB was.
- tqi 4y agoI hope that is the case. I think the counter case is investors putting themselves into the shoes of a CFO at a company with >250k in cash. Why would they choose to park it at a regional bank rather than one of the big banks? Sure, FDIC made depositors whole this time, but does it have enough to continue doing that? If not, is there enough political will to push a taxpayer funded bailout through (especially this close to an election year)? And even then, how long would that take?* *This excludes banks that are primarily dealing in consumer deposits, who I assume will be fine.
- NotAnEconomis23 4y agoGo for it. How do you know if this is the bottom? It's catching a falling knife.