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But we also do poorly at guessing the direction or shape of progress. In aviation, there was Concorde and the 747. Back then who would have thought both those
by massysett 4y ago
But we also do poorly at guessing the direction or shape of progress.
In aviation, there was Concorde and the 747. Back then who would have thought both those are in the dustbin and one of the most popular vehicles for longer-range flight is…the 737?
We put men on the moon decades ago, still haven’t been back.
In computing, we probably could have voice interfaces like the Star Trek computer, but mostly it seems folks don’t want to be bothered, though maybe the latest chat bot craze is a forerunner to chatty computers.
- a4isms 4y ago> we also do poorly at guessing the direction or shape of progress I think this is especially true over longer time frames, because in our hubris, we extrapolate from what we know today, and cannot (by definition) extrapolate from things we haven't discovered yet. In addition, we tend to filter what we know by what is important and what is not important, and we are not good at understanding that sometimes, a breakthrough doesn't just introduce something new, it changes the importance of something else.