7 ms·

Dunno about insiders, but some old tweets called out trouble well before the fact: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart/status/1628779894183272452 https://twitter.c

by Natsu 4y ago

Dunno about insiders, but some old tweets called out trouble well before the fact: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart/status/1628779894183272452 https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart/status/1628779894183272452 https://twitter.com/RagingVentures/status/1615826088038473733 https://twitter.com/RagingVentures/status/161582608803847373... EDIT: This tweet also proposes a timeline for the collapse based on one of those tweets - https://twitter.com/itsurboyevan/status/1634603869752766471 https://twitter.com/itsurboyevan/status/1634603869752766471

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
Wow, some people are really prescient: "And even if the company did run into trouble, there are good political reasons to think that depositors wouldn't be harmed: the people who donate the legal maximum to political campaigns are disproportionately likely to bank with Silicon Valley or work for companies that do."
- astrange 4y ago
  The legal maximum is around $5000, so this is invoking a conspiracy to protect lower-middle-class thousandaires. So… that's fine then.
  - mrguyorama 4y ago
    Are you purposely ignoring the rules around donating to PACs and similar? They are defacto part of the political influence economy, and are not limited like that.
  - HWR_14 4y ago
    Lower-middle-class thousandaires don't have $5,000 to donate to a single candidate, let alone hundreds of them. I am not sure how much money you need to be making to donate the maximum to a single politician, but I'm guessing it's in the low-to-mid-six figures before you can have a $5,000 donation as a reasonable budget item.
  - noitpmeder 4y ago
    How many "lower-middle-class thosandaires" do you imagine donate the legal maximum to political campaigns? Even if it does happen it can't be with any significant percentage.
    - astrange 4y ago
      A lot of people donating to a few campaigns matters more than a few people donating to a lot. Though maybe not so much max donations, but those matter less when you can pick up so many more $25/month Actblue donations.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- dymk 4y ago
  Not everything is a conspiracy
  - webmaven 4y ago
    That's exactly what they want you to think.
  - lotsofpulp 4y ago
    Just a coincidence that crises affecting only groups of less connected and less rich people rarely seem to get such high priority.
    - astrange 4y ago
      Democratic campaign donors are not rich people, they're 40 year old middle class white women.
    - ghodith 4y ago
      It's no coincidence that preventing a nationwide bank run is of higher priority than other, lower priority things.
    - Natsu 4y ago
      I thought the proper word for things like this was "privilege"?
    - noelsusman 4y ago
      Is there an example of a similar crisis that affected less well connected people and was handled differently? This is a serious question, not an Internet dunk or whatever. I'm not very knowledgeable on these topics.
      - lotsofpulp 4y ago
        The bottom rungs of US society have innumerable crisis going on. Housing, healthcare, education, nutritional food, childcare, etc. The point is if things threaten the functioning of upper rungs of society, it gets worked on over the weekend by the leaders. If poor children do not have access to nutritional meals in schools, this gets knocked around for decades and decades while obesity and diabetes run rampant. A simple example is spending the money to put whole grains, vegetables, and freshly prepared non sugary foods into a child’s plate twice a day during school hours. This would only require paying a few school employees well and paying a few dollars per meal per student for ingredients, but it is not something that has happened. It is embarrassing to say the least.
- twblalock 4y ago
  As if that's why they got help? Come on. The risk of a domino effect of bank runs destroying the banking system, and thereby the economy, is why the government acted tonight. Remember that the Biden administration are not really big fans of the tech industry.
  - paganel 4y ago
    > The risk of a domino effect of bank runs destroying the banking system, That's the exact speech made by those people, and we know it because they have money and, hence, they have ideological clout and access to our eyes and ears. Had this been a bank from fly-over-country the discourse would have been totally different.
latchkey 4y ago
Those were Jan/Feb, how about Dec 2021? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565388-svb-financial-blow-up-risk https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565388-svb-financial-blow-...
- mh- 4y ago
  *Dec 2022
i67vw3 4y ago
I cannot find it now, but there is a twitter thread from January where the guy predicts SVB bank run and implies that his prediction does not cause a bank run itself for his prediction to come true.

by Natsu 4y ago

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago

Wow, some people are really prescient: "And even if the company did run into trouble, there are good political reasons to think that depositors wouldn't be harmed: the people who donate the legal maximum to political campaigns are disproportionately likely to bank with Silicon Valley or work for companies that do."

astrange 4y ago
The legal maximum is around $5000, so this is invoking a conspiracy to protect lower-middle-class thousandaires. So… that's fine then.
- mrguyorama 4y ago
  Are you purposely ignoring the rules around donating to PACs and similar? They are defacto part of the political influence economy, and are not limited like that.
- HWR_14 4y ago
  Lower-middle-class thousandaires don't have $5,000 to donate to a single candidate, let alone hundreds of them. I am not sure how much money you need to be making to donate the maximum to a single politician, but I'm guessing it's in the low-to-mid-six figures before you can have a $5,000 donation as a reasonable budget item.
- noitpmeder 4y ago
  How many "lower-middle-class thosandaires" do you imagine donate the legal maximum to political campaigns? Even if it does happen it can't be with any significant percentage.
  - astrange 4y ago
    A lot of people donating to a few campaigns matters more than a few people donating to a lot. Though maybe not so much max donations, but those matter less when you can pick up so many more $25/month Actblue donations.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
dymk 4y ago
Not everything is a conspiracy
- webmaven 4y ago
  That's exactly what they want you to think.
- lotsofpulp 4y ago
  Just a coincidence that crises affecting only groups of less connected and less rich people rarely seem to get such high priority.
  - astrange 4y ago
    Democratic campaign donors are not rich people, they're 40 year old middle class white women.
  - ghodith 4y ago
    It's no coincidence that preventing a nationwide bank run is of higher priority than other, lower priority things.
  - Natsu 4y ago
    I thought the proper word for things like this was "privilege"?
  - noelsusman 4y ago
    Is there an example of a similar crisis that affected less well connected people and was handled differently? This is a serious question, not an Internet dunk or whatever. I'm not very knowledgeable on these topics.
    - lotsofpulp 4y ago
      The bottom rungs of US society have innumerable crisis going on. Housing, healthcare, education, nutritional food, childcare, etc. The point is if things threaten the functioning of upper rungs of society, it gets worked on over the weekend by the leaders. If poor children do not have access to nutritional meals in schools, this gets knocked around for decades and decades while obesity and diabetes run rampant. A simple example is spending the money to put whole grains, vegetables, and freshly prepared non sugary foods into a child’s plate twice a day during school hours. This would only require paying a few school employees well and paying a few dollars per meal per student for ingredients, but it is not something that has happened. It is embarrassing to say the least.
twblalock 4y ago
As if that's why they got help? Come on. The risk of a domino effect of bank runs destroying the banking system, and thereby the economy, is why the government acted tonight. Remember that the Biden administration are not really big fans of the tech industry.
- paganel 4y ago
  > The risk of a domino effect of bank runs destroying the banking system, That's the exact speech made by those people, and we know it because they have money and, hence, they have ideological clout and access to our eyes and ears. Had this been a bank from fly-over-country the discourse would have been totally different.

latchkey 4y ago

Those were Jan/Feb, how about Dec 2021? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565388-svb-financial-blow-up-risk https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565388-svb-financial-blow-...

mh- 4y ago
*Dec 2022

i67vw3 4y ago

I cannot find it now, but there is a twitter thread from January where the guy predicts SVB bank run and implies that his prediction does not cause a bank run itself for his prediction to come true.