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It doesn't matter whether the bonds are sold now or held to maturity; the loss is exactly the same either way. For a simple example, let's say interest rates ar
by tripletao 4y ago
It doesn't matter whether the bonds are sold now or held to maturity; the loss is exactly the same either way. For a simple example, let's say interest rates are independent of time to maturity and initially 2%, and we purchase a bond that pays $1000 in ten years. That will cost us 1000/(1.02^10) = $820.
After two years, that bond now has FMV of 1000/(1.02^8) = $853. But then interest rates increase to 4%, so its FMV drops to 1000/(1.04^8) = $731.
If we sold today at the FMV then we'd realize an $89 loss from our purchase price. That's neither better nor worse than holding to maturity, though--that's what makes it the FMV. In the case where we sell, we'd get $731 now, but we could reinvest it at 4%. After the remaining eight years, that would give us 731*(1.04^8) = $1000, exactly the same as if we'd held.
HTM accounting treats the two cases as different, but that's an arbitrary regulatory decision, untethered from any economic reality. It has no meaning outside that narrow compliance purpose. The SVB's decision to treat that accounting fiction as if it were economically meaningful appears to be a major part of how they blew themselves up.