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The same situation applies at nearly EVERY bank at nearly EVERY time. This is Fractional Reserve Banking [0]. There are almost NEVER enough immediately availa
by toss1 4y ago
The same situation applies at nearly EVERY bank at nearly EVERY time.
This is Fractional Reserve Banking [0].
There are almost NEVER enough immediately available liquid assets to survive a bank run.
Deposits are the inventory of a bank. They then hold a small fraction in reserve, while loaning out many times that value. They can also have other assets.
The TOTAL VALUE of all the assets is usually greater than the liabilities, which is the deposits, i.e., the bank is solvent.
That does NOT mean that the same fully solvent bank could immediately cash out those assets at full value to meet a surge in withdrawal demands.
Take any bank, both most solvent and with greatest liquidity. If we had enough clout to start enough insolvency rumors that we can precipitate a big run on Monday, they'll be shut down by Tuesday. All you need is a big enough "megaphone". Once it starts, it is self-reinforcing, because only those who pull their deposits early get anything.
Thiel had exactly such a megaphone, on a bank with assets and deposits highly concentrated in his industry. It is entirely possible, even likely that SVB would be open right now if Thiel had not openly made that call.
We do not have anything near enough information to claim that it was "totally justified", and it may in fact turn out that it was entirely unjustified and created a rapidly self-fulling prophecy.
You can have a huge pile of tinder with gasoline on it, but without anyone actually lighting a match to it, it could be disassembled and made safe. But as soon at that lit match is tossed, it's done.
[0] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fractionalreservebanking.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fractionalreservebankin...
- gruez 4y ago>We do not have anything near enough information to claim that it was "totally justified", and it may in fact turn out that it was entirely unjustified and created a rapidly self-fulling prophecy. Are you suggesting that SVB's assets at present market value might actually be worth more than their liabilities and/or that we don't know for certain? My impression is that the fact that they were insolvent was well known. See for instance matt levine's writeup: >Basically SVB ended up with a large portfolio of held-to-maturity bonds with an average duration of 6.2 years at the end of 2022, “and unrealised losses snowballed, from nothing in June 2021, to $16 billion by September 2022.” These losses “completely subsumed the $11.8 billion of tangible common equity that supported the bank’s balance sheet,” meaning that SVB was technically insolvent https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-10/startup-bank-had-a-startup-bank-run https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-03-10/startu...
- mannerheim 4y ago> The same situation applies at nearly EVERY bank at nearly EVERY time. Illiquid is not the same thing as insolvent, so no.