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The trigger has been pulled on fossil-fueled global warming, and the planet will continue its steady avg temperature rise for the next 100 years at least, at ra
by photochemsyn 4y ago
The trigger has been pulled on fossil-fueled global warming, and the planet will continue its steady avg temperature rise for the next 100 years at least, at rates equal to or exceeding those seen over the 1980-2020 period. It will take at least 100 years after the end of fossil fuel use to equilibrate to a new stable temperature, and various feedback processes (permafrost melt, polar oceanic warming) will continue to leak carbon to the atmosphere regardless, perhaps for centuries.
> "The global annual temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.08°C per decade since 1880 and over twice that rate (0.18°C per decade) since 1981. The 2020 Northern Hemisphere land and ocean surface temperature was the highest in the 141-year record at +1.28°C above average." (NOAA)
Practically, this means that at least as much effort needs to be spent on adaptation to new conditions as needs to be spent on replacing fossil fuels with renewables. These conditions include increased floods and droughts and heat waves (due to increase in atmospheric water vapor and its various chaotic effects) relative to human civilization history, and inexorable sea level rise on the longer term.
The 'positive messaging' advocates who say that stating this is discouraging and causes people to lose hope are simply wrong. It's better to think of it as a challenging reality. Adaptation is possible to some extent (termite architecture for example), and of course the sooner fossil fuels are eliminated from the energy mix the slower the changes will be. Also, don't buy property in flood plains or right on the coastline, or on debris flow zones, or in wildfire-prone areas, and don't complain about recycling urine for drinking water either.
As we have sowed, so shall we reap.